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Poor grades for back-to-school sales?
Report: Retail group expects an 8.2% drop this year in average spending on school-related products.
July 19, 2005: 9:24 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Retailers banking on a back-to-school bonanza this year, beware. The National Retail Federation said Tuesday that it expects a disappointing 8.2 percent drop this year in the average amount of money families will spend on school-related merchandise.

The NRF's report also comes a day after a separate survey indicated that parents this year would significantly slash their budgets for back-to-school spending.

According to the NRF 2005 Back-to-School Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, families with school-aged children are expected to spend an average of $443.77 on back-to-school items, down from $483.28 last year.

Total back-to-school spending is estimated to reach $13.39 billion this year, down from $14.79 billion in 2004.

The report said most of the shortfall stems from the electronics category, where spending is expected to fall more than a billion dollars to $2.06 billion, compared to $3.09 billion last year. Average spending on electronics products is also expected to fall to $68.08 compared with $101.03 in 2004.

"It is understandable that, after several years of strong gains and record-breaking sales, demand may cool slightly for electronics merchandise this year," Tracy Mullin, NRF president and CEO, said in a statement.

However, other back-to-school items are expected to perform at the same level as last year, the report said. Clothing, shoes and school supplies were once again expected to take the chunk of the spending pie, although parents said they were planning to spend an average of $205.31 on apparel, slightly less than the $219.46 they allocated last year.

Discount stores such as Wal-Mart (Research) and Target (Research) were tops on the list of major shopping destinations for school-related merchandise, the survey said, followed by department stores, office supplies stores and specialty stores.

The report also indicated a big shift in regional spending patterns for the back-to-school season. Consumers in the midwest, who spent more on average last year than any other region ($571.67) are expected to pull back the reins this year, spending only $404.68.

However, consumers in the northeast, who spent an average of $435.37 last year, plan to bump up their spending to $513.07, the report said. Spending in the south is expected to drop significantly while the west should experience an uptick in spending in the coming months.

The NRF survey, conducted by BIGresearch, polled 6,487 consumers July 6-13 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percent.

Separately, a new survey from America's Research Group indicated that parents will significantly slash their budgets for back-to-school spending.

"Parents have much lower spending plans this year, with the average at $296.20 compared with $411.24 a year ago," Britt Beemer, retail consultant and head of America's Research Group, a Charleston, S.C.-based research firm, said in a statement.

According to Beemer, this year's average-total-spending range for school-related merchandise is also lower than last year's.

This year, parents are inclined to spend $201-$300 at the low end and $301-$400 at the top end, compared with $401-$500 and $501-$600 last year, the survey showed.

"At this point in the buying season, parents have only spent $71.96 so far, so there is time for stores to get aggressive and drive more sales," Beemer said

Interestingly, of the respondents who said they planned to spend less this year, only 9.5 percent cited higher gas prices as the reason.

Additionally, the report said that more than half (53.3 percent) the respondents said they were trying to get their children to wear what they wore last year, compared with 36.8 percent last year.

New clothes were at the top of the back-to-school shopping list, the survey said, and Wal-Mart (Research) was the No. 1 store where parents said they planned to shop. J.C. Penney's (Research), Sears and Old Navy were the other top retail choices.

This survey of 1,000 adults was conducted July 8-11, 2005, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.  Top of page

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