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Views split on Bernanke rate hikes
Newspaper survey says half of economists expect Greenspan's successor to leave rates unchanged.
November 11, 2005: 8:30 AM EST
Half of economists surveyed expect rates to stay unchanged for several months under Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Ben Bernanke.
Half of economists surveyed expect rates to stay unchanged for several months under Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Ben Bernanke.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Economists are evenly split on whether Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Ben Bernanke will lead the Fed to further rate hikes in his first months in office or leave rates at the level reached under outgoing chairman Alan Greenspan, according to a published report.

A survey of economists by The Wall Street Journal found that half expect the Fed Funds rate to be at 4.5 percent in June 2006. That is the same rate that most economists and traders expect after the January 2006 meeting, which is now set to be Greenspan's last as chairman.

But the Journal survey found 15 of the economists forecast the funds rate at 4.75 percent in June, 12 economists put it at 5 percent and one forecast the fed-funds rate at 5.25 percent, the latter estimate that would suggest quarter-percentage point rate hikes at the first three meetings of what is expected to be Bernanke's tenure as chairman.

The Fed has raised rates by a quarter percentage points at each of its last 12 meetings and it has two meetings left under Greenspan's tenure.

The Senate is set hold a confirmation hearing on Bernanke on Tuesday, and he is excepted to win Senate approval easily.

The economists told the Journal that if they had a chance they would question him on his previously stated preference for "inflation targeting," in which the Fed would set a formal, public goal for a specific low inflation rate that the Fed would be committed to reaching. The idea of inflation targeting is somewhat controversial, with 54 percent of economists polled by the Journal saying they favor the idea, while 46 percent are opposed.

Economists also said they would like to question Bernanke about his credentials as an inflation fighter.

William B. Hummer of Wayne Hummer Investments told the newspaper he would ask, "To keep inflation under control, would you accept a brief recession?"

Lehman Brothers economist Ethan Harris said he would simply ask the nominee, "What kind of bird are you, Mr. Bernanke: hawk or dove?"

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For a closer look at Bernanke's nomination, click here.

For a special report on the Federal Reserve, click here.  Top of page

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