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Comcast connects
Shares of the #1 cable firm have been in a slump but that might be about to change.
February 1, 2005: 1:02 PM EST
By Paul R. La Monica, CNN/Money senior writer

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Comcast's stock performance hasn't been too thrilling during the past 12 months.
Comcast's stock performance hasn't been too thrilling during the past 12 months.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Can you believe that it's been almost a year since cable giant Comcast launched its audacious takeover bid for Walt Disney?

Few gave Comcast much chance of succeeding a year ago. But the conventional wisdom at the time was that the nation's largest cable operator would do just fine without Disney while the House of Mouse was in danger of losing its independence.

It's funny how things work out.

One year later, Disney's (Research) stock is up more than 20 percent from where it was before the bid was announced. ABC, formerly a ratings disaster, is now the hot network thanks in large part to two big hits, Desperate Housewives and Lost. And on Monday, Disney reported better than expected results for its fiscal first quarter.

To Comcast's credit, it has moved on since being spurned by Disney. It was part of a Sony (Research)-led group to buy film studio MGM. Now the company is said to have teamed up with Time Warner (Research), the parent of CNN/Money, to make a joint bid of more than $17 billion for the assets of bankrupt cable firm Adelphia Communications.

Still, shares of Comcast (Research) are down about 5 percent during the past 52 weeks.

With Adelphia expected to name a winning bidder within the next few weeks and with fourth-quarter results due out on Thursday, analysts see several catalysts for Comcast to finally get its stock back on track.

Analysts like the Adelphia bid

The Comcast-Time Warner offering is widely believed to be the favorite to win the bidding for the Adelphia assets. Thomas Eagan, an analyst with Oppenheimer, thinks that Comcast is making a wise move.

For one, a successful bid would most likely allow Comcast to exchange its 21 percent stake in Time Warner's cable division for a combination of cash, shares in a possible Time Warner cable spin-off and cable systems, Eagan said.

"Comcast wants something that's measurable and monetizable." Eagan said.

Stifel Nicolaus analyst Ted Henderson added that through the purchase of select Adelphia systems, Comcast would be able to fill in some areas of coverage, particularly in New England and Pennsylvania, and extend its leading market position in the cable industry.

"A winning bid should enhance the dominance of the Comcast footprint," said Henderson.

All eyes on subscriber growth

Analysts expect Comcast to report quarterly earnings of 12 cents per share, down 37 percent from a year ago due to an anticipated increase in capital expenditures and subscriber acquisition costs. Comcast's results from last year also benefited from a gain in investment income.

With cable companies, earnings per share often don't get as much scrutiny as operating cash flow, or operating earnings before depreciation and amortization.

That figure is expected to shine. Analysts are predicting operating cash flow from Comcast's cable business of $2 billion, a 16 percent increase from a year ago. Comcast is also expected to post a healthy 11 percent increase in revenue, to $5.25 billion.

Philip Remek, an analyst with Guzman & Co., is predicting strong gains in subscribers for two key growth areas for Comcast, digital cable and high-speed Internet access. He adds that continued successes with these products should further boost Comcast's average monthly revenue per subscriber.

"Broadband and digital cable subscriber growth should keep marching along," Remek said.

Henderson said that Comcast's roll-out of Internet phone services, a technology known as Voice over Internet protocol (VoIP), should help the company later this year since it will give the company yet another service offering to combat competition from phone companies and satellite television firms.

Sure, Comcast didn't succeed in making the splashy deal for Disney last year. But Henderson said the partnership with Sony for MGM could turn out to be a more cost-effective way for Comcast to gain access to content to bolster its burgeoning video on demand efforts.

Combine that with the Adelphia bid and Henderson thinks that one of the biggest factors holding back the stock last year, namely that Comcast would make a big purchase that would hurt earnings, is no longer a legitimate concern.

"With Comcast's stock a discounted value, I don't see the company aggressively using stock to make a major acquisition in the near future," Henderson said.

All in all, most analysts said the stock has a fair value of about $40, which is 27 percent higher than its current price.

"Comcast continues to be the best blue chip in the cable sector," said David Joyce, an analyst with JB Hanauer. "The company is making all the right moves."

Oppenheimer's Eagan owns shares of Time Warner but his firm has not done investment banking for it or other companies mentioned in this piece. Guzman & Co. has performed investment banking for Comcast.

Other analysts quoted in this piece do not own shares of the companies mentioned and their firms have no investment banking relationships with the companies.

The writer of this piece owns shares of Time Warner through his company's 401(k) plan.


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