Real Estate 2010

MONEY Magazine: Latest forecasts and projections for the nation's largest metro areas.

4. Phoenix, AZ

Home price forecast (1 year):* -18.5%

Phoenix attracted the overflow of rabid California real estate buyers who flocked to nearby areas to invest in less overpriced properties. The result was that Phoenix caught the last stages of the irrationally exuberant housing bubble and residents are now paying for it.

Phoenix became one of the hardest hit foreclosure cities of the four "Sand States," California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada, where delinquency rates were the highest in the nation. Nearly 140,000 homes went into foreclosure in 2009. Many are back on the market, swelling supplies of homes for sale and depressing prices. Another 18.5% price decline is expected this year.

See Phoenix on Money's Best Places to Live

Is this a good time to buy a home in Phoenix?

City stats^†
Population: (2006)	4,039,182
Median family income: (2008)	$64,200
Home price data
Median home price: (2009)	$140,000
Affordability index: (Median home price/family income 2009)	2.2
Prices peaked in:	2006:Q2
Total climb during the boom: (2000 to peak)	123.5%
Total decline so far: (Peak through 2009)	-53.5%
One-year change: (Q4 2008 to Q4 2009)	-14.6%
Forecast
Additional price change to bottom:	-22.8%
When they'll hit bottom:	2011:Q2

*(Q1 2010 - Q1 2011)
† Data is for Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area
Notes:
Median home prices are for single-family homes through the third quarter of 2009, the most recent data available, and include sales of bank-owned properties.
Sources: Fiserv and Moody's Economy.com

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