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Bonds trade mixed, dollar inches up
Long-term Treasuries rise on low inflation; greenback gains strength but lacks clear direction.
January 31, 2005: 4:19 PM EST
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New York (CNN/Money) - The dollar was slightly stronger while bond prices traded mixed on Monday as subdued inflation data supported longer-dated securities.

In late afternoon trading, the dollar bought ¥103.64, up from ¥103.37 late Friday. The euro bought $1.3028, down from $1.3043.

The benchmark 10-year note rose 3/32 of a point to 100-29/32 to yield 4.13 percent, up from 4.14 percent late Friday.

The 30-year bond gained 10/32 to 111-28/32 to yield 4.59 percent, down from 4.61 percent late Friday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The five-year note stood unchanged at 99-21/32 to yield 3.70 percent, while the two-year lost a tick at 99-22/32 to yield 3.28 percent.

In the currency market, the U.S. currency fluctuated in tight ranges ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve's policy setting committee meeting and a Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers' gathering on Friday and Saturday.

Some economic news also puzzled bond traders, as Midwest manufacturers fared better than expected in January, but new home sales proved surprisingly weak in December, neutralizing the market's reaction.

Another report on personal income and consumption showed inflation was well-contained, lessening the chances that the Federal Reserve would be forced to hike interest rates more aggressively.

"With the Fed expected to go another 25 basis points on Wednesday and still-tame inflation reports, we are just seeing more of the same flattening trend," said Mary Ann Hurley, vice president of fixed-income trading at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Seattle, Washington.

The Fed meets on Tuesday and Wednesday to set monetary policy and is widely expected to raise its benchmark federal funds rate a quarter percentage point to 2.50 percent. Interest rate futures have also priced in hikes at the two following meetings.

Bond prices initially dipped after the Chicago purchasing management index rose to 62.4 in January from 61.9 in December. Analysts had looked for a fall to 60.0. The employment index also ticked up to 52.8 after it dropped to a revised 51.1 in December, though the prices paid index declined.

However, figures on new home sales were much weaker than expected, especially after downward revisions to previous months. Sales ran at a 1.098 million pace in December, below the recovery to 1.20 million analysts had forecast.

"The bond market's reaction has been relatively subdued since we have ISM tomorrow," said Steve Gallagher, economist at SG Cowen Securities, referring to the Institute for Supply Management's national factory gauge.

"The housing numbers were weaker than expected and that's two months in a row. Maybe we're finally getting a sign that housing is moderating a bit."  Top of page

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