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Gap's fashion dilemma
With sales slumping, has CEO Paul Pressler run out of ideas to keep the retailer out of the gap?
February 23, 2005: 6:39 PM EST
By Parija Bhatnagar, CNN/Money staff writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - In the retail world, Gap's CEO Paul Pressler has been a star. But lately, he's not shining too brightly.

Pressler, a former 15-year Disney veteran, left the mouse house for the ailing specialty clothing chain in 2002.

Since then, he's won plenty of praise for engineering a much-needed turnaround for the company.

Under Pressler's stewardship, Gap returned to its basic concept of plain tees and khakis, won back its customers, and posted a 20-consecutive month run of positive sales growth, which was all the more impressive because it came after more than two years of monthly sales declines.

Wall Street took notice and rewarded Pressler's efforts. Although Gap (Research)'s stock has rebounded nicely from its 2002 lows of about $9 a share, it's once again facing some unsettling headwind.

Shares of the San Francisco-based retailer, which also operates the Old Navy and Banana Republic chains, currently trade about 17 percent below their 52-week high of $25.72 hit last June. That's still well below Gap's all-time high of $53 a share.

Some of the downward pressure on the stock comes from Gap's recent string of disappointing sales results at its stores open at least a year -- a closely-monitored key retail measure called same-store sales.

Gap's same-store sales have declined six out of the past nine months. This despite Pressler's commendable job thus far in correcting the company's past blunders.

Among the steps he's taken, Pressler successfully established three different identities for each of the company's core brands and aggressively ramped up Gap's advertising and marketing efforts, including enlisting celebrities such as actress Sarah Jessica Parker and musician Lenny Kravitz to tout the Gap brand.

Moreover, the company's annual sales are expected to top $16 billion.

So what gives?

Industry observers talk about a nasty little secret that's well known within the retailing world: the evil fickleness of the fashion consumer.

Despite offering a few likeable trends, consumers didn't really warm up to the retailer over the holidays.

As a result, Gap was forced to offer deeper promotions during the key November-December shopping months, a period that can account for as much as 50 percent of retailers' sales and profits.

The impact of deeper discounts is likely to be felt on the bottom line. Gap Inc., on Thursday, is expected to report fourth-quarter profits of 37 cents a share, flat from a year ago, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial.

Sales are forecast to have come in at $4.9 billion, marginally up from $4.8 billion a year ago.

"Gap has taken all the low-hanging fruit from the turnaround. It's time for the company to come out and inspire the consumer again with better styles, novelty and newness," said Howard Tubin, analyst with Cathay Financial.

Said Tubin, "Paul's had two-and-a-half years of solid performance. He's swung things around. I don't think that his luck has run out. It's more a matter of what's next."

For one thing, the company is set to introduce a new (yet unnamed) store concept that targets women over 35. Expanding its customer demographic is a step in the right direction, Tubin said

"But given the size of the company, I'm not that it's enough to move the needle for at least several years," he said.

Donald Trott, analyst with Jeffries & Co., agreed with Tubin that finding new growth areas are important.

"We feel the stock has transitioned from an earnings turnaround to a cash deployment story," Trott said. "This is a company with a significant amount of cash generation. It's using it to pay down debt and look at new business opportunities."

Added Trott, "Some core problems still need to be addressed. We're most concerned about traffic trends. Pressler improved the merchandise of each division and returned it to their historic roots. It's that fact that has been fueling sales trends as consumers were more willing to pay at full price. Now what the company needs is traffic to keep the comparable sales going. Our concern is that apart from Banana Republic, Gap's two larger divisions have failed to stimulate consumers."

No one at Gap was immediately available for comment.  Top of page

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