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Give MBNA credit
Shares of the nation's premier credit-card issuer look notably undervalued.
April 12, 2005: 9:42 AM EDT
By Michael Sivy, CNN/Money contributing columnist
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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Investors have become increasingly nervous about the market's future. Fears about terrorism, high oil prices, rising interest rates and the possibility of an economic downturn have all acted like a wet blanket on stock prices, despite generally solid economic numbers over the past 15 months.

Some caution may be justified, but in the process many high-quality stocks have lagged and are trading far below their normal valuations. A perfect case in point is MBNA, one of the nation's leading credit-card issuers.

The company recently cut its guidance for growth over the next five years to an annual rate of 12 percent, down from as much as 15 percent. The drop in the stock's valuation, however, has been far greater than this growth-rate reduction would justify.

While MBNA traded at price/earnings ratios as high as 20 five or six years ago, the shares currently trade at 11.2 times estimated earnings for the current year and less than 10 times next year's projected results.

At such P/Es, the stock is receiving little or no premium over the valuations of other financial services giants that in the past have not been able to match MBNA's growth rate -- its earnings per share have grown at a compound annual rate of more than 16 percent over the past five years.

Long-term positives outweigh short-term negatives

The negatives are straightforward and fairly easily quantified. MBNA's well above-average growth is slowing because most consumers have already taken on about as much debt as they can carry comfortably. And rising interest rates will eliminate most mortgage refinancings that gave many homeowners a cheap way to pay down debt and become eligible for more credit.

In addition, the economy isn't terribly robust and most consumers are hesitant to overextend themselves.

In such an environment, some slowdown in the earnings growth of credit-card issuers is inevitable. But MBNA remains a high-quality and efficient lender.

Moreover, there's a lot the bank can do to bolster its earnings growth. MBNA has launched a $2 billion stock-repurchase program. And the bank plans to shed 1,000 jobs, at a one-time cost of $785 million, which will raise efficiency and reduce the bank's overhead. Much of the reduction will come from early retirement programs.

Growth for the industry as a whole may well be slightly subpar over the next 12 months. But analysts still forecast profit gains for the sector in the 8 percent to 12 percent range.

Longer term, growth should improve as the economy picks up again. In addition, credit-card issuers should benefit over the long term from new bankruptcy legislation, which passed the Senate in mid-March and will likely pass the House and be signed into law by the President later this year.

The bill, which makes it more difficult for consumers to evade debt by going bankrupt, is the first major reform of bankruptcy laws in 27 years.

The bill is controversial. Liberals say it is too harsh, while conservatives say the reforms are simply common sense and offer special protection for the poor.

Whoever is right, it will almost certainly benefit credit-card companies. Over the long term, issuers' loan portfolios will improve. Ultimately, that means fewer losses, fewer charge-offs and higher profit margins.

Given the near-term outlook, it's understandable that credit-card issues might be a bit depressed. But at $24.83 a share, MBNA (Research) seems considerably cheaper than it should be. And the stock looks like a solid pick for value-conscious growth investors willing to hold for several years.

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Sivy on Stocks resources:

Sivy 70: America's best stocks

Guide to Growth

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Michael Sivy is an editor-at-large for MONEY magazine. Click here to receive Sivy on Stocks via e-mail every Monday.  Top of page

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