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Waiting for the Fed...waiting for Godot?
If you're waiting for guidance from the Fed on inflation you might be left holding the bag.
April 12, 2005: 5:04 PM EDT

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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - If there's one thing to take away from the Federal Reserve's latest big policy missive, it's this: if you're waiting for a change in the Fed's language to guide you on the inflation question -- you're waiting for Godot.

If you are a close follower of the twists and turns of Fed policy, you will know that the markets have been obsessed with a simple phrase that the Fed has put in all its post-meeting policy statements for months now, "measured pace." The Fed's been signaling that rate hikes would continue at a "measured pace," signaling tidy little quarter-point rate hikes at each meeting.

With the economy growing at a 4%-plus rate and with higher oil prices making folks nervous about rising inflation, some on Wall Street have been betting that the Fed would at long last drop the "measured pace" stance, and open the door to bigger half-point rate hikes. Hence the focus on today's release of the minutes from March 22's meeting where the Fed once again promised to stay the "measured pace" course.

Wall Street was correct in assuming inflation and the pace of it's interest hikes was on the Fed's mind. Near the very end of the minutes, some members of the FOMC thought it was time to take out the "measured pace" language because it might keep the Fed from switching into higher rate-hiking gear if need be.

But there apparently was pretty widespread agreement among the dozen-and-a-half Fed guys and gals around the table that this isn't necessary because they believe they've made it clear that keeping rate hikes at a measured pace depends on inflation remaining subdued as most Fed folks believe it to be right now.

In fact the minutes say the FOMC thinks that "the wording did not rule out either picking up the pace of firming or pausing in the process of removing policy accommodation should circumstances warrant."

Now, if you suddenly feel like Alice in wonderland and you've just walked through the looking glass, you're not alone.

First of all, why does the Fed think the markets are so obsessed with the measured pace language? Don't officials see that Wall Street is anxious about whether or not it has been removed precisely because people are assuming that the presence of the measured pace language is a signal the Fed is not ready to shift into faster rate-hiking gear? To say that the measured pace language is "clearly conditional" on inflation staying in check makes me wonder what they've been missing.

What do they think they have said or done up till now to make it clear, as they seem to be finally making it clear today, that "measured pace" only applies until the evidence shows that inflation is accelerating? So are we to understand that when inflation accelerates, the size of rate hikes could accelerate too?

Now, it's true, that all seasoned Fedwatchers know that it's always ultimately the strength or weakness of the economy and inflation that determines what the Fed does. But the fact is that the "measured pace" language has gained a life of its own, and economists and strategists are watching carefully to see when and if it's lifted.

So say a cheer for the The Fed it actually seems to be aware of how closely it's being watched. The minutes say that to the extent it can, it will "help the public anticipate the probable course of monetary policy..." And that they "recognized" that the statement needs "to evolve over time." Hooray for the Fed!

But all cheering aside, the Bottom line is that the Fed now acknowledges that the "measured pace" phrase is no guarantee of anything if inflation starts heating up again. When it comes to a having a good forecast of the economy, keep your eyes on the economic numbers because that's what the Fed will do.

-- Kathleen Hays is economics correspondent for CNN and contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight.  Top of page

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