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NEW YORK (MONEY Magazine) - Home prices across the country will likely keep rising over the next year. While many hot markets on both coasts could see a dramatic slowdown in their growth rates, the forecasters at housing research firm Case Shiller Weiss aren't predicting outright losers anywhere.
Nationally, home values climbed 14 percent last year, or nearly double the 8 percent of 2003, when the bubble talk began in earnest.
Prices are up 20 percent or more in some coastal cities, putting homes out of reach for many. In Los Angeles, for example, just 5 percent of homes sell at prices affordable to a median-income local family.
Don't panic just yet, though. Any pop is unlikely to be nearly as severe as what can happen in the stock market. Local markets can drop 10 to 20 percent, but that's about as bad as it usually gets.
And a crash is merely a paper loss as long as you don't need to move. Meanwhile, you get a roof over your head and, with a little luck, nice neighbors and good public schools too.
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|
| Metro area |
Median home price |
5yr change in avg home price |
Growth forecast to June 2006 |
| United States |
$190,000 |
65.1% |
7.1% |
| New York/Northern New Jersey/Long Island/Connecticut |
|
|
|
| New York City |
$435,000 |
91.2% |
12.6% |
| Nassau/Suffolk, N.Y. |
$440,000 |
92.1% |
11.6% |
| Newark |
$330,000 |
79.0% |
11.4% |
| Bergen/Passaic, N.J. |
$390,000 |
81.9% |
11.3% |
| Middlesex/Somerset/Hunterdon, N.J. |
$318,000 |
87.4% |
11.1% |
| Monmouth/Ocean, N.J. |
$328,000 |
97.0% |
11.3% |
| Jersey City |
$300,000 |
114.2% |
N.A. |
| New Haven/Bridgeport/Stamford/Waterbury/Danbury |
$335,000 |
69.7% |
9.0% |
| Trenton |
$230,000 |
83.4% |
11.0% |
| Los Angeles/Riverside/Orange County |
|
|
|
| Los Angeles/Long Beach |
$442,000 |
122.3% |
5.0% |
| Riverside/San Bernardino, Calif. |
$329,000 |
137.3% |
4.5% |
| Orange County, Calif. |
$610,000 |
126.3% |
6.8% |
| Ventura, Calif. |
$550,000 |
122.6% |
5.8% |
| Chicago |
$254,000 |
49.6% |
8.6% |
| Washington/Baltimore |
|
|
|
| Washington |
$385,000 |
107.4% |
13.9% |
| Baltimore |
$140,000 |
85.3% |
14.2% |
| San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose |
|
|
|
| Oakland |
$535,000 |
96.3% |
13.3% |
| San Francisco |
$750,000 |
67.7% |
13.6% |
| San Jose |
$619,000 |
63.0% |
13.9% |
| Vallejo/Fairfield/Napa, Calif. |
$449,000 |
125.1% |
13.8% |
| Santa Rosa, Calif. |
$500,000 |
107.8% |
13.2% |
| Santa Cruz/Watsonville, Calif. |
$599,000 |
86.2% |
13.0% |
| Boston/Worcester/Lawrence/Lowell/Brockton |
$339,000 |
73.6% |
8.0% |
| Dallas/Fort Worth |
|
|
|
| Dallas |
$137,000 |
23.1% |
N.A. |
| Fort Worth/Arlington |
N.A. |
23.5% |
N.A. |
| Philadelphia/Wilmington/Atlantic City |
|
|
|
| Philadelphia |
$180,000 |
71.0% |
11.7% |
| Atlantic/Cape May, N.J. |
$249,000 |
112.6% |
9.4% |
| Detroit/Ann Arbor/Flint |
|
|
|
| Detroit |
$160,000 |
24.3% |
4.3% |
| Ann Arbor |
$225,000 |
28.1% |
1.2% |
| Houston |
$136,000 |
25.2% |
N.A. |
| Atlanta |
$188,000 |
25.2% |
6.4% |
| Miami/Fort Lauderdale |
|
|
|
| Miami |
$240,000 |
106.1% |
15.3% |
| Fort Lauderdale |
$257,000 |
105.8% |
16.3% |
| Phoenix/Mesa |
$190,000 |
53.1% |
17.7% |
| Seattle/Tacoma/Bremerton |
|
|
|
| Seattle/Bellevue/Everett |
$315,000 |
38.1% |
9.1% |
| Tacoma, Wash. |
$212,000 |
36.9% |
4.2% |
| Minneapolis/St. Paul |
$225,000 |
63.2% |
7.4% |
| Cleveland/Akron |
|
|
|
| Cleveland/Lorain/Elyria |
$153,000 |
20.0% |
4.3% |
| Akron |
$148,000 |
17.5% |
0.7% |
| San Diego |
$554,000 |
138.3% |
5.9% |
| St. Louis |
$129,000 |
38.1% |
N.A. |
| Tampa/St. Petersburg/Clearwater |
$172,000 |
70.8% |
14.7% |
| Pittsburgh |
$108,000 |
31.1% |
N.A. |
| Denver |
$250,000 |
33.3% |
6.0% |
| Cincinnati/Hamilton |
|
|
|
| Cincinnati |
$172,000 |
18.9% |
4.0% |
| Hamilton/Middletown, Ohio |
$182,000 |
20.5% |
3.2% |
| Portland, Ore./Vancouver |
$226,000 |
36.6% |
9.8% |
| Sacramento/Yolo |
|
|
|
| Sacramento |
$376,000 |
131.1% |
17.1% |
| Yolo, Calif. |
$379,000 |
140.9% |
17.4% |
| Kansas City, Mo. |
$149,000 |
30.8% |
N.A. |
| Orlando |
$195,000 |
60.6% |
14.3% |
| Indianapolis |
$113,000 |
18.8% |
N.A. |
| San Antonio |
$123,000 |
24.8% |
N.A. |
| Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Newport News |
$168,000 |
60.9% |
N.A. |
| Las Vegas |
$285,000 |
107.0% |
N.A. |
| Columbus, Ohio |
$172,000 |
22.7% |
3.7% |
| Milwaukee/Waukesha |
$199,000 |
40.5% |
N.A. |
| Charlotte/Gastonia/Rock Hill, N.C. |
N.A. |
19.1% |
N.A. |
| Salt Lake City/Ogden |
$155,000 |
-0.2% |
0.0% |
| Austin/San Marcos |
$151,000 |
24.9% |
N.A. |
| Nashville |
$139,000 |
19.3% |
6.4% |
| Providence/Warwick/Pawtucket |
$257,000 |
111.7% |
17.7% |
| Raleigh/Durham |
$186,000 |
18.9% |
N.A. |
| Hartford |
$228,000 |
54.1% |
8.9% |
| Buffalo/Niagara Falls |
$95,000 |
27.00% |
N.A. |
| Memphis |
$126,000 |
11.5% |
3.2% |
| West Palm Beach/Boca Raton, Fla. |
$282,000 |
98.0% |
21.0% |
| Jacksonville, Fla. |
$154,000 |
57.4% |
N.A. |
| Dayton/Springfield, Ohio |
$135,000 |
15.1% |
0.3% |
| Fresno |
$243,000 |
129.1% |
N.A. |
| Tucson |
$179,000 |
46.6% |
8.5% |
| Albuquerque |
$146,000 |
13.3% |
1.4% |
| Knoxville |
$121,000 |
27.3% |
7.0% |
| Bakersfield, Calif. |
$195,000 |
114.1% |
N.A. |
| Toledo |
$124,000 |
19.7% |
0.6% |
| Youngstown/Warren, Ohio |
$90,000 |
15.0% |
1.8% |
| Springfield, Mass. |
$182,000 |
64.1% |
10.5% |
| Sarasota/Bradenton |
$229,000 |
83.5% |
17.0% |
| Stockton/Lodi, Calif. |
$370,000 |
126.9% |
21.8% |
| Daytona Beach, Fla. |
$153,000 |
79.9% |
22.0% |
| Lakeland/Winter Haven, Fla. |
$133,000 |
46.5% |
9.8% |
| Johnson City/Kingsport/Bristol (Tenn./Va.) |
$90,000 |
16.2% |
4.8% |
| Lansing/East Lansing |
$134,000 |
33.0% |
2.9% |
| Modesto, Calif. |
$305,000 |
140.5% |
15.2% |
| Fort Myers/Cape Coral, Fla. |
$124,000 |
92.1% |
15.1% |
| Canton/Massillon, Ohio |
$129,000 |
16.7% |
2.2% |
| Salinas, Calif. |
$526,000 |
136.2% |
N.A. |
| Santa Barbara/Santa Maria/Lompoc |
$445,000 |
147.9% |
N.A. |
| Visalia/Tulare/Porterville, Calif. |
$190,000 |
86.1% |
N.A. |
| Fort Pierce/Port St. Lucie, Fla. |
$280,000 |
99.8% |
13.7% |
| New London/Norwich, Conn. |
$226,000 |
71.9% |
6.3% |
| Naples, Fla. |
$300,000 |
109.3% |
22.4% |
| San Luis Obispo/Atascadero/Paso Robles, Calif. |
$475,000 |
137.7% |
11.3% |
| Merced, Calif. |
$270,000 |
126.2% |
16.6% |
| Clarksville/Hopkinsville (Tenn./Ky.) |
$95,000 |
15.3% |
4.2% |
| Chico/Paradise, Calif. |
$250,000 |
119.6% |
15.2% |
| Burlington, Vt. |
$226,000 |
62.7% |
7.8% |
| Barnstable/Yarmouth, Mass. |
$369,000 |
115.7% |
5.6% |
| Punta Gorda, Fla. |
$154,000 |
98.1% |
17.5% |
| Pittsfield, Mass. |
$165,000 |
57.8% |
11.1% |
NOTES: Data as of 2004 unless otherwise noted.
N.A.: Not applicable or not available.
SOURCES: Fiserv CSW, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Housing and Development, National Association of Realtors.
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