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Fed: Prudent zombie or killer duck?
Some like the "measured" strategy...others think it's a slow, painful death.
June 30, 2005: 5:22 PM EDT

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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - If the Federal Reserve's policy strategy were a movie script, would it be "Land of the Dead" because of its zombie-like devotion to endless quarter-point rate hikes?

Or would it be "War of the Worlds" as the Fed does whatever it takes to keep evil inflation aliens from taking over the U.S. economy?

The Fed, in Thursday's announcement, gave no indication it was through increasing rates in its campaign to ward off inflation. And Michael Darda of MKM Partners said that's a good thing, especially in the face of expensive oil.

"Such action could create a sharp upward move in inflation expectations, additional upward pressure on precious metals prices and renewed downward pressure on the dollar," Darda said. "If that were to happen, the Fed likely would have to drive rates up much more in the future, which could be disruptive to financial markets."

Darda thinks the Fed's key short-term rate is going to at least 4 percent by year's end.

Snap out of it

Ashraf Laidi of MG Financial Group is in the camp that thinks the Fed needs to snap out of its zombie trance and see what's happening to the economy.

He does note that the real Fed Funds rate -- the nominal rate of 3.25 percent minus inflation -- is now at only 1.05 percent, well below the level in the two previous Fed rate hiking campaigns.

"Those who expect further rate hikes can note that the real Fed Funds rate has yet to reach at least 3 percent," Laidi said. "But with oil prices rising 58 percent since last June (when rates started to rise) and with U.S. manufacturing nearing contraction, the bond market is telling the Fed that it had better not raise rates further."

In other words, bond yields are falling as the Fed hikes short-term rates because bond investors see a weaker economy and a muted inflation threat.

And as for bond traders, some say the Fed should stop with the endless 25 basis point hikes and just hike a half percent and be done with it.

Carlos Borromeo of Stephens Inc is one of those bond traders who can see signs of inflation but is more concerned about weak spots in the economy -- especially if the housing "bubble" starts deflating. He thinks the Fed should stop hiking rates right now.

"Twenty-five basis points at a time is like getting eaten to death by a duck. Just dreadful."

In other words the Fed script isn't about aliens or zombies -- it's about the rate moves driving the market "quackers."

___________________________

-- Kathleen Hays is economics correspondent for CNN and contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight. You can read more of her columns here.  Top of page

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