Markets & Stocks
    SAVE   |   EMAIL   |   PRINT   |   RSS  
Gearing up for Greenspan
FOMC meeting Tuesday is expected to bring higher rates, hints about future policy. Cisco on tap too.
August 6, 2005: 7:13 PM EDT
By Alexandra Twin, CNN/Money staff writer
INVESTOR RESEARCH CENTER INVESTOR RESEARCH CENTER upgrades & downgrades earnings & warnings public offerings INVESTOR RESEARCH CENTER INVESTOR RESEARCH CENTER

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Go easy on us maestro.

The summer stock rally hit a roadblock last week as giddiness about earnings turned to wariness about interest rates and oil prices.

Friday's bigger than expected jump in July payrolls, paired with a rise in average hourly earnings, did nothing to dissuade the market from its bet that the Federal Reserve is set to keep raising interest rates, and maybe even at every meeting through the rest of the year.

Hints about that is what investors will be angling for when Fed chairman Alan Greenspan and the rest of the central bankers hold their latest interest-rate setting meeting Tuesday, with a decision due in the afternoon.

The Fed is widely expected to boost the Fed funds rate, an overnight bank lending rate, by a quarter-percentage point to 3.50 percent. It would mark the 10th consecutive increase since the Fed began its rate hike campaign last summer.

"I don't think there's anyone in the free world that doesn't think they'll raise rates by a quarter-percentage point," said Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. "The transparency has been terrific -- it means no surprises, no big changes in the language."

And the language in the statement is what investors will be most focused on, particularly in terms of the Fed's assessment of the economy, the impact of oil prices and any threat of inflation.

The jobs number last week was just the latest sign that the economy is doing well after the 'soft patch' in the spring, said Stephen Leeb, president of Leeb Capital Management.

"There's some pressure on the Fed now to move faster because of the stronger reports," Leeb said.

However, the Fed is also "between a rock and a hard place," he added. When the Fed acts too aggressively, it can be very self-defeating, because it can scare investors into putting money into bonds."

For more on the upcoming Fed decision, click here.

Cisco, Disney to report

Most of the second-quarter earnings have already been released, and the results have been surprisingly upbeat.

S&P 500 earnings likely grew at a double-digit pace in the quarter versus a year ago for the 13th quarter in a row, boosted, unsurprisingly, by strength in energy stocks, but also others.

However, a few noteworthy reports are still due in the weeks ahead, including Cisco Systems and Walt Disney on Tuesday and retailers Federated and Target later in the week.

The read on July retail sales is also due, as well as a few other economic reports.

The retail sales number may be interesting, Leeb said, as it ties into questions of consumer sentiment and inflation, and tends to be a market mover.

"If the retail sales number is a little lighter than forecast, that may be seen as bullish for stocks in that it takes the edge off the inflation issue," Leeb said.

Other economic reports due next week include the June trade balance, the Wednesday weekly oil inventories report, and the first read on consumer sentiment in August from the University of Michigan.

The economy continues to have good forward momentum to it, said Ned Riley, chief investment strategist at Riley Asset Management, and after a period of consolidation, stocks should be able to resume an upward move.

What's working against the market, Riley said, is the fact that "the ten-year Treasury note yield is again moving higher and the price of oil is hitting up against record highs, all of which create obstacles for higher stock prices."

Key events in the week ahead

  • Tuesday: the first read on productivity in the second quarter is expected to show growth of 2 percent, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Productivity grew at a 2.9 percent rate in the first quarter.
  • Thursday: July retail sales are expected to have risen 1.9 percent after rising 1.7 percent in June, according to forecasts; July retail sales excluding the volatile autos component should have risen 0.8 percent after rising 0.7 percent in June, economists say.
  • Friday: the June trade balance is expected to have ballooned to $57.1 billion from $55.3 billion in May; the preliminary read on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan is expected to have fallen to 96.0 in August from 96.5 in July.

Next week's big earnings

  • Monday: Delphi (Research) is expected to report a loss of 51 cents per share, according to First Call forecasts, versus a profit of 28 cents a year ago; Nortel Networks (Research) is expected to report a profit of 1 cent per share, versus breakeven results a year ago.
  • Tuesday: May Department Stores (Research) is expected to have earned 31 cents per share, according to forecasts, versus 36 cents a year ago; Walt Disney (Research) is expected to have earned 39 cents per share versus 31 cents a year ago; Cisco Systems (Research) is expected to have earned 25 cents per share versus 21 cents a year ago.
  • Wednesday: Federated Department Store (Research) is expected to have earned 84 cents per share, versus 63 cents a year ago; News Corp (Research) is expected to have earned 17 cents per share, versus 14 cents a year ago.
  • Thursday: Target (Research) is expected to have earned 58 cents per share, up from 48 cents a year ago; Dell (Research) is expected to have earned 38 cents per share, up from 31 cents a year ago.
 Top of page

graphic


YOUR E-MAIL ALERTS
Alan Greenspan
Federal Reserve
Interest Rates
Economic Indicators
Manage alerts | What is this?