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HP: Sidestepping Dell's problem
Will the tale of two computer makers be the same? Not if HP can help it.
August 15, 2005: 3:05 PM EDT
by Amanda Cantrell, CNN/Money staff writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Dell admitted last week that it goofed on how it priced low-cost computers. The question on investors' minds now is whether Hewlett Packard made the same mistake.

HP reports its fiscal third quarter earnings Tuesday. The company is expected to produce earnings of $0.31 cents a share, or 27 percent growth year over year, and sales of $20.5 billion, an eight percent increase over the previous year's second quarter, according to Thomson First Call estimates.

Some analysts think Dell's problem may not carry over to its biggest competitor. It is important to note what Dell's management didn't say – that demand for PCs is on the wane. Dell's problem, according to its management, was its failure to sell higher-cost products to customers who were attracted to the company's cheapest machines. As a result it missed revenues and issued a weakened forecast for the next quarter.

"Dell's commentary implied that Dell was probably overly aggressive on price, and that's probably more of a company-specific issue than an industry specific issue," said Brent Bracelin, an analyst with Pacific Crest Securities. "But people will look to see if aggressive pricing impacted (HP) as well."

Shrinking demand for PCs from the federal government also affected Dell. Brian Alexander, an analyst with Raymond James & Associates, said he feels that may be less a reflection of shrinking demand than a realization that Dell lost market share.

"I'm confident in talking to consumers in the industry that the overall federal market was soft, but not down, year over year," he said. "It's always hard to pinpoint who gains or loses, especially when you are drilling down into specific segments. When all is said and done, performance out of HP will probably be better."

It's the printers, stupid

Analysts said they are actually more concerned about pricing pressure in the printer segment, an important area for HP. Alexander of Raymond James noted that HP responded aggressively in the first quarter of this year to pricing pressures from printer competitors Canon and Epson, which led to weak margins in the April quarter.

"Margins from HP in that segment last quarter were lower than what people were looking for," he said. "We are expecting operating margins in the printer business (this quarter) to be about 13 percent, which may be optimistic. If it were significantly below that it might cause a concern, but I'd be surprised. I'd like to see good growth in the enterprise segment and server segment, and some improvement in profitability for the software business, which is running at loss."

Hurd's deep cuts

Of course, the principal concern for many HP investors is how CEO Mark Hurd's plans to turn the company around are shaping up. Last month, Hurd announced he would slash 14,500 jobs, or nearly 10 percent of the company's work force, a big step toward cost cutting.

"The PC business is the least of their problems," said analyst Mona Eraiba of Rosetta Group Research. "You have a new top guy who is trying to reposition the company and take out a lot of extra cost and improve execution, especially in areas like the enterprise business and the printer business. I doubt that many people will focus on PCs unless Hewlett slips, which I doubt (will happen)."

Eraiba recently cut her rating for HP to buy, saying that for the short term, she wants to remain cautious until the effects of the company's recently announced plans to cut 14,500 jobs are realized. But she thinks earnings will probably be just about in line with expectations.

"That's the biggest uncertainty about HP," said Eraiba. "You have this big chunk of people leaving, so the question is, will that affect morale, and how is it going to affect this quarter and the next? They have a lot of uncertainties away from the PC business."

Hurd's main focus for the long term will be to improve markets and profitability, meaning he is likely to focus less on share gains in the short term and more on getting HP back to a healthy operating margin.

"I don't see it as a share-gain game," said Pacific Crest's Bracelin.

Alexander of Raymond & James agreed, saying he feels the impact on earnings from a revenue shortfall is much less significant than impact from margin shortfall.

"HP is more of a margin story, and we are expecting operating margin improvement over the next several quarters," he said.

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For Dell's second quarter earnings, click here.

None of the analysts quoted in this story own shares of HP, and their firms do not have banking ties to the company.  Top of page

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