News > Technology
    SAVE   |   EMAIL   |   PRINT   |   RSS  
A tale of two chip stocks
Texas Instruments ramped up its third-quarter forecast but Intel's was virtually flat. What gives?
September 9, 2005: 2:46 PM EDT
By Amanda Cantrell, CNN/Money staff writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Given the high demand for laptop computers, cell phones and high definition TVs, now is a particularly good time to be in the business of making microchips.

But some chipmakers are having a better time than others, as Texas Instruments and Intel revealed in their updated forecasts for the current quarter late Thursday. In making chips for cell phones and HTDV's, TI plays in a market that Intel does not -- and that is clearly making a difference for TI in the third quarter.

TI said it now expects sales of $3.48 billion to $3.62 billion and earnings of 36 to 38 cents a share in the quarter, reduced by 3 cents a share for the cost of expensing stock options granted to workers. That's up from its prior forecast of $3.29 billion to $3.56 billion for sales and 31 to 35 cents for earnings, including the option expense.

Intel said it expects third-quarter revenue of $9.8 billion to $10 billion, tightening a forecast it issued in July of $9.6 billion to $10.2 billion. The mid-point of the forecast remained $9.9 billion.

Analysts and investors took note of the fact that TI's estimates were markedly more optimistic while Intel's predictions were pretty much in line -- which was enough to disappoint investors, judging by the drop in its share price after the close. Shares of TI (up $0.19 to $33.94, Research) rose about 1 percent while Intel (down $0.83 to $25.26, Research) sank 3 percent.

Analysts said this the first time in some time that Intel did not raise its guidance at the mid-point of the quarter, which may have disappointed investors and probably accounts for the drop in its stock.

TI, meanwhile, certainly benefited from its diversified product line, capitalizing on consumers' strong interest in cell phones and flat-screen TVs. TI got a big boost from healthy demand in its wireless, analog, and DLP divisions. DLP is the technology some companies use to make HDTVs. With the strong demand for these products, coupled with TI's 65 percent hold of the mobile phone market, TI is in the proverbial sweet spot.

"We're well positioned in the hottest electronic markets out there – wireless, digital TV ... there isn't a semi company out there that has the position that TI has in digital TV," Ron Slaymaker, vice president for investor relations, told analysts in a conference call Thursday evening. "We're just in some hot areas that are driving a lot of strength."

Said Chris Caso, senior vice president and analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co., "You can just go down to Circuit City and see that business has good penetration. This is the time of year when that seasonal build happens."

Banking on solid demand

Despite the fact that TI is clearly getting a jolt from strong markets that Intel doesn't play in, analysts say both companies are enjoying strong demand for their products. The drop in Intel's stock price probably has more to do with overheated expectations than substantive problems, analysts said.

"Both companies are benefiting from good demand; Intel is benefiting from good demand for notebooks," said Amrit Tewary, a semiconductor analyst at Standard & Poor's. TI's demand was broad-based, he adding, noting it also saw unexpected strength in Asia.

As for Intel, it's still expected to produce 17 percent year-over-year growth when the third quarter wraps up. Yet it faces some capacity problems, including a shortage in the chip sets that are necessary to build PCs.

Said Friedman, Billings' Caso, "Intel is now the dominant chip set provider, so the shortage in chip sets has some potential for constraining the PC market overall. I think the constraint in chip sets had some impact."

Added Apjit Walia, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said Intel is currently trying to line up outside suppliers to address the shortage.

"As a semi company you want to make sure you are ready for production when (the demand comes)," he said. "They might miss some of the upside based on that bottleneck if they don't."

Caso added that it is crucial for Intel to line up chip set suppliers, particularly for products on the lower end of the market.

"If customers can't get a product from Intel, they'll get it from AMD," he said.

Feeling the pain of energy prices?

Where the big picture is concerned, analysts are keeping a close eye on rising interest rates and the post-Katrina spike in energy prices, which could dent sales of laptops and other high-tech gear.

"Coming into the winter season, you're going to see consumers take a hit with their heating bills, so that will impact how much consumers can spend on items like electronics," said S&P's Tewary. "I have concerns about the macroeconomic picture, but these concerns are already reflected in most chip stocks' prices."

Tewary said he is maintaining hold ratings on TI and Intel, since he sees both as fairly valued. Despite his macroeconomic concerns and his neutral outlook on the semiconductor sector overall, he favors two stocks in the group: Marvell Technology (Research) and International Rectifier (Research).

Tewary likes Marvell because there are several new consumer products that use its data storage and IRF because it makes energy-saving chips. "That helps IRF, because in this high oil price environment, a stock that can help consumers save on energy bills will do well," he said.

------------------------

Can Sony's new CEO revive the electronics giant? More here.

For the latest technology news, click here.

Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Co. does or seeks to do investment banking business with Intel and TI and makes a market in the securities of Intel.

RBC does not do banking business with either Intel or TI, and Walia does not own shares in the company.

S&P's Tewary does not own shares in Intel or TI, but S&P and its affiliates may provide services to the companies mentioned.  Top of page

YOUR E-MAIL ALERTS
Follow the news that matters to you. Create your own alert to be notified on topics you're interested in.

Or, visit Popular Alerts for suggestions.
Manage alerts | What is this?