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Home sales stay strong
Existing home sales post second best month on record in September; again tops forecasts.
October 25, 2005: 11:46 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The pace of home sales was unchanged in September, according to an industry trade group report Tuesday that showed real estate market strength continuing to top Wall Street expectations.

The National Association of Realtors' report on existing home sales showed an annual rate of 7.28 million in September, matching August's pace. The pace of sales tied the second best month on record, behind only the 7.35 million annual sales rate in June.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast for sales to slow to a 7.2 million rate in the most recent period.

The trade group said that it does expect some slowing in the housing market in the months ahead, but it does not see any bursting of a so-called housing bubble that would equate to a sharp drop in sales or home prices.

"The underlying fundamentals of the housing market are solid and sales will stay historically strong, but they will trend modestly down from current peaks," said a statement from David Lereah, the group's chief economist. "Masked by the data are early signs that housing is starting to wind down from a boom and will transition into an expansion – in other words, a soft landing."

But some economists have questioned whether the strong sustained rise in home values in recent years is due for a significant correction, especially if mortgage rates rise and drive up the cost of home ownership.

One sign of softening in the realtors' report is some slide in home prices compared to August, although prices stayed well above year-earlier levels.

Nationally the median price of a home slipped 3.6 percent in the month to $212,000, although that's still up 13.4 percent from year-earlier levels. The median is the price at which half the homes sold cost more and half cost less,

The softness in prices was across all regions. The median price was off 0.6 percent in the Midwest, the narrowest decline, while it fell 7.6 percent in the West. The South, which saw sales in the month impacted by Hurricane Katrina, saw a 2.6 percent decline in prices from August while the Northeast saw the median price off 3.5 percent.

The group said sales volume was actually lifted somewhat by victims of Hurricane Katrina who were force to buy homes during the month, as a spike in home sales in areas just outside the disaster zone overcame the loss of sales in the area most directly hit by the storm in the last week of August.

For example, markets such as Baton Rouge, La., show existing-home sales dramatically greater than September 2004, while parts of New Orleans recorded a fraction of the year-earlier volume, although some suburban areas did well.

The overall inventory of existing homes on the market nationwide was little changed at 2.85 million, up from 2.84 million in August.

The existing home sales reading is based upon when a sale closes, not when it is agreed to, and is therefore somewhat of a trailing indicator. Home closings typically take place one or two months after a sales contract is signed, and are financed at mortgage rates locked in well in advance of the closing.

The average 30-year mortgage rate in September was 5.77 percent, according to Freddie Mac. While that's down from the 5.82 percent rate in August, it's above the 5.70 percent average for July. Mortgage rates have since risen to a 15-month high, topping 6 percent in weekly surveys by Freddie Mac this month. That could help to slow home sales in the months ahead.

For a further look at the real estate market and what it means for you, click here.  Top of page

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