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Changes to the Sivy 70
I'm removing MBNA and Tribune from our list of long-term growth stocks and adding CVS and Danaher.
November 1, 2005: 8:14 AM EST
By Michael Sivy, CNN/Money contributing columnist
A 17-part series on how to achieve maximum returns for the right amount of risk. See all the lessons.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The Sivy 70 is a list of stocks that potentially offer above-average long-term returns. I update the list periodically to reflect the latest earnings announcements and important corporate developments.

After completing the latest review, I am removing MBNA from the list, because the bank is being acquired by Bank of America, and the deal is expected to close by the end of the year.

We generally keep a varied assortment of companies on the list, so that it will be easy for readers to choose stocks that diversify their portfolios. As a result, some stocks may be in groups that are out of favor at any particular time.

Major media stocks, for instance, have been facing difficulties, because of weakening advertising spending and competition from the Internet. That alone would not lead me to remove a stock from the list, as long as its long-term growth seemed secure.

Tribune Corp., however, has also faced tax and management problems. Accordingly, I have decided to remove it from the list.

The additions

Ideally, the Sivy 70 list consists of stocks that have solid finances and strong or dominant positions in their industries, as well as the potential for double-digit average annual returns, based on projected earnings growth and dividends.

All of the stocks are worth considering for your portfolio, but not all are current buys. The timeliness of a stock depends on its share price and short-term outlook. In my weekly column, I generally write about whichever companies seem most attractive.

Stocks that I add to the list generally have favorable long-term prospects. But whenever possible, I also look for share prices that seem slightly depressed. Both of the companies I am adding have sold off a bit since August, chiefly because of concerns that earnings may run below trend for the next quarter or two.

CVS is the largest U.S. drug retailer, with 5,461 outlets, compared with just over 5,000 for Walgreen. Despite its size, however, CVS has never been managed quite as effectively as Walgreen, and CVS (Research) shares have usually traded at a lower price/earnings ratio.

Rivalries between Pepsico and Coca-Cola and between Lowe's Companies and Home Depot have shown, however, that the weaker company can close the multiple gap -- and even go on to trade at a higher P/E -- if it improves its performance.

CVS earnings are projected to grow at a 13 percent compound annual rate over the next five years, compared with 16 percent for Walgreen. If CVS can improve its growth at all, the stock's 15 P/E could support a multiple closer to Walgreen's 22.

Danaher is a well managed industrial conglomerate that operates in a number of niche businesses. Product lines include electronic test tools and calibration equipment, ultraviolet water disinfection systems, leak detectors for storage tanks, dental products, position sensors, flow monitors and miniature precision parts.

Earnings were up 14 percent in the most recent quarter, helped by recent acquisitions. Results for the current quarter are expected to be a bit soft. But earnings per share are still expected to rise 12 percent next year and grow at a 15 percent rate after that. The shares trade at less than 17 times estimated 2006 profits.

Sivy on Stocks resources:

Sivy 70: America's best stocks

Guide to Growth

___________________

Michael Sivy is an editor-at-large for MONEY magazine. Click here to receive Sivy on Stocks via e-mail every Tuesday.  Top of page

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