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Cisco: Options victim
Look beyond short-term blips, including new accounting rules for options, and Cisco is still a buy.
November 15, 2005: 8:15 AM EST
By Michael Sivy, CNN/Money contributing columnist
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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - After the tech bubble burst, investors started saying that long-term growth is what really counts, not quarterly fireworks.

That's the sensible way to look at stocks, of course. But shareholders still seem to be disappointed when growth stocks -- and particularly tech stocks -- have anything less than a blockbuster quarter.

Cisco Systems is a perfect case in point. The company, which dominates the market for the routers, switches and other stuff that makes the Internet work, reported mixed results last Wednesday.

The share price immediately ticked down -- and has been flat since then.

Cisco's results weren't exactly bad. They were actually hard to evaluate, because of a variety of short-term issues that made meaningful earnings comparisons difficult.

None of these factors changes the long-term case for Cisco, however. To see why, it's worth taking a close look at the latest quarter's numbers.

For the first fiscal quarter ended Oct. 29, Cisco reported earnings of 20 cents a share, compared with 21 cents for the year-earlier quarter. And revenues were down slightly from the previous quarter.

Even worse, the company's guidance for the current quarter is quite restrained. And new orders are not coming in particularly strong.

These factors sound more downbeat than they really are, however.

Reported net income for the quarter was hurt because Cisco began treating stock options as expenses to comply with accounting requirements. Results for the year-ago quarter don't include the cost of options.

If options are treated the same way this year and last, earnings for the most recent quarter would have risen by 17 percent, beating analysts' expectations by a penny a share.

Similarly, revenue growth may be nearly flat quarter-to-quarter, but it's up 9.7 percent over the past year. Cisco also says that revenue growth could break the 10 percent mark for the year as a whole.

In fact, Cisco's business is expanding steadily at a double-digit rate in most markets. Soft sales in Europe and Japan are holding back results at the moment.

The company also has more impressive opportunities in its so-called advanced technology product lines -- offering enhanced computer security, for instance. Although those businesses are still relatively small, they are growing faster than 20 percent a year.

Perhaps most important, Cisco continues to repurchase large amounts of its own stock -- 194 million shares for about $3.5 billion in the most recent quarter.

The company needs to buy back nearly $1 billion of stock a year to offset option grants that have been given to employees. But Cisco's cash flow is so strong -- and its $13.5 billion cash hoard is so large -- that it can easily maintain the buybacks necessary to keep earnings growth on track.

When you sort through all the trends and counter trends, the bottom line is this: Cisco may not make much headway over the next quarter or so, but from a longer term perspective, it remains a very attractive growth stock.

Cisco is a debt-free company that dominates its markets and enjoys immense financial strength. And consensus estimates project double-digit earnings growth -- possibly even as high as 15 percent annually -- over the next five years.

Moreover, all that long-term potential is available at a very modest price. At a $17.35 a share, Cisco (Research) still trades at less than 17 times earnings for the current fiscal year.

Sivy on Stocks resources:

Sivy 70: America's best stocks

Guide to Growth

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Michael Sivy is an editor-at-large for MONEY magazine. Click here to receive Sivy on Stocks via e-mail every Tuesday.  Top of page

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