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Cold hard truth
Wintry weather forecast sends oil higher, stock futures down; retailers see stronger holiday sales.
November 22, 2005: 8:12 AM EST

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Stocks could slip on higher oil prices and new inflation concerns in the early going Tuesday.

U.S. stock futures were down, indicating a lower opening for stocks in the face of higher oil prices. Oil prices were up on colder weather in the Northeast, including forecasts of the first snow of the season in much of the region.

The January light crude futures contract for NYMEX gained 94 cents to $58.64 a barrel in electronic trading, while the January contract for Brent crude rose $1.01 to $56.35.

At 2 p.m. ET, the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee will be released, and investors will be looking for clues about Fed concern about inflation and how much longer the central bank might stay with its path of "measured" interest rate hikes.

The National Association of Business Economists came out with a forecast overnight that called for slightly stronger 2006 ecoomic growth than its previous consensus estimate, but which also raised its forecast for consumer prices.

Michael Carty, stock market strategist, New Millennium Advisors, said he thinks those new inflation concerns, as evidenced by the rise in gold prices early Tuesday, are putting downward pressure on stocks.

"There's concern that to defend the dollar and fight inflation we may have to go beyond the 4.5 percent (Fed Funds rate) that people have been looking for from the Fed," said Carty. "When people are going to real assets (such as gold) instead of the financial assets, you know they're playing the inflation game."

Major markets in Asia closed mixed Tuesday. Major European markets were little changed in early trading.

Treasury prices were slightly lower, lifting the yield on the 10-year note to 4.47 percent from 4.46 percent late Monday. The dollar gained ground against on the euro and the yen.

U.S. stocks staged a late-day rally Monday as strength in energy, financials, homebuilders and aerospace overshadowed worries about General Motors (Research). The Dow Jones industrial average ended in positive territory for the year for the first time in eight months, while the Nasdaq composite and S&P 500 ended at four-and-a-half-year highs.

There are no economic reports due Tuesday, but the National Retail Federation has upped its forecast for holiday spending this year to a 6 percent gain, up from its earlier target of a 5 percent improvement. The trade group cited lower gasoline prices as a factor spurring sales.

In corporate news, Target (Research), the nation's No. 3 general retailer, slightly raised its November sales forecast to a gain of 2 to 3 percent. While that's somewhat improved from its last outlook, it's less than the internal target of a 4 to 6 percent gain in the month.

No. 1 retailer Wal-Mart Stores (Research) vowed after the market close Monday that it will match competitors' advertised prices as part of its "Black Friday" promotions. Shares of Wal-Mart gained in after-hours trading.

One hot holiday purchase went on sale just after midnight Monday. Microsoft's (Research) much-anticipated Xbox 360 was released, as buyers lined up in the middle of the night to get an early copy.

Internet search firm Google (Research), which has been in a legal battle with publishers over placing content from copyright-protected books online, has donated $3 million to the Library of Congress as part of a campaign to create a world digital library.

For a more detailed look at the markets before the open, click here.  Top of page

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