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The right CEO for 3M
He may not be flashy, but 3M's new CEO looks like the right man to get the stock moving.
December 13, 2005: 9:45 AM EST
By Michael Sivy, CNN/Money contributing columnist
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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - After hiring James McNerney, one of General Electric's rising stars, in late 2000, 3M was left looking a little embarrassed when McNerney took the top job at Boeing in July.

The loss of a flashy CEO wasn't an immediate problem for 3M. Board member Robert Morrison capably took the reins while the company searched for a permanent replacement. But investors were still a little nervous.

Last week, the company picked George Buckley, CEO of Brunswick corporation. Opinion is still divided as to whether Buckley is the right guy to get 3M's stagnant stock moving. But he sounds like a smart choice to me.

The stock has been mostly flat for the past two years and is now trading 9 percent below its December 2003 level. And this price weakness is a little puzzling at first glance.

Earnings grew at a 12.6 percent compound annual rate over the past five years. And consensus projections call for 12 percent annual growth over the coming five years.

In addition, the stock yields more than 2 percent. The growth rate and yield combined give the shares an above-average total return potential.

Results for the most recent quarter were quite positive, as well. For the third quarter, earnings per share were up more than 13 percent, beating analysts' consensus forecast by two cents a share. Sales for the quarter were up a very healthy 8 percent.

None of this has really shown up in the stock, however. At $77.11, 3M (Research) now trades at only 16.4 times estimated earnings for 2006.

Part of the reason is the general undervaluation of big-cap growth stocks. But uncertainty about the company's leadership and long-term direction has doubtless played a major role as well.

In fact, McNerney accomplished several important things during his tenure. A follower of Jack Welch and a Harvard MBA, McNerney worked to focus 3M's businesses, trim costs and repurchase billions of dollars of stock.

Now the question is how the new CEO will move the company forward and boost the stock.

Solid resume

Some analysts say that Buckley is an underwhelming replacement for McNerney. This perceived charisma gap probably isn't helped by the fact that Buckley, who grew up in the north of England, describes himself as "very ordinary." And his previous experience at Brunswick was at a far smaller company.

But Buckley brings three advantages to the table that could help him enormously in the long run.

First of all, 3M is a company of engineers, and Buckley is an engineer himself. Unlike most growth companies, 3M has more than 50,000 products -- including Scotch Tape and Post-it Notes. And the company's best innovations have come about when small groups of engineers were free to pursue their own projects.

Second, Buckley is committed to growth, not just restructuring. At Brunswick, he compiled a solid record of sensible, cost-conscious acquisitions that were not always large but made a positive contribution to earnings within a couple of years.

Finally, Buckley had a strong record of adding value to Brunswick stock. Over the past three years, the share price has doubled.

So while Buckley may not have the blue-chip resume that McNerney did, he has a record of practical achievement and the right skill set for 3M right now.

Expectations for 3M's earnings growth in 2006 are only 10 percent to 11 percent. And Buckley may need a year or two to start showing stronger earnings.

But the company's earnings power is higher, and any positive surprises should be quickly reflected in a stock price that rewards investors who buy while the shares are still relatively depressed.

Sivy on Stocks resources:

Sivy 70: America's best stocks

Guide to Growth

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Michael Sivy is an editor-at-large for MONEY magazine. Click here to receive Sivy on Stocks via e-mail every Tuesday.  Top of page

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