Oddsmakers see bailout OK soon
Intrade.com prediction market shows 80% of participants think Congress will pass mammoth bailout plan by the end of September.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Despite the enormity of the task, the chance that Congress will pass some form of the Bush administration's massive bailout plan soon are pretty solid, according to some oddsmakers.
Bets placed on the trading market Web site Intrade.com indicate there was an 80% chance Wednesday that lawmakers will pass legislation aimed at rescuing the nation's crumbling financial system within the next six days.
Intrade.com runs online prediction markets that allow members to invest in a variety of outcomes including presidential elections, the likelihood of military strike against Iran and the direction of gas prices.
Over the past 24 hours, the "market" for bailout "contracts" has received about 350 bids, said Intrade.com spokesman Chad Rigetti.
"There has been so much interest in such a short period of time," Rigetti said. And a narrowing of the bid-ask spread suggests that "the market is rapidly approaching consensus," he added.
Buyers were initially pricing in a 55% to 65% chance when trading went active on Tuesday. The odds rose to 95% overnight then settled around 80% Wednesday morning.
At issue is a plan to use up to $700 billion in tax dollars to buy bad mortgage-backed securities from Wall Street firms. The goal is to stabilize the nation's financial markets by absorbing the toxic investments that have made banks reluctant to lend money to each other.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has urged Congress to greenlight the plan by the end of the week. But lawmakers largely rebuffed Paulson on Tuesday during a five-hour hearing at the Capitol.
While most lawmakers agree that something needs to be done to put the nation's economy back on track, sorting out all the details could prove time-consuming. 
