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This year's hottest zip codes
By Sarah Max, CNN/Money senior staff writer

PLUS:
•  What makes a zip code HOT?
•  Homes in hot zip codes
•  Ultimate home guide 2005
SALEM, Ore. (CNN/Money) - Whether home prices will rise or fall in the coming year is anyone's guess. The housing market continues to stump experts on both sides of the bubble debate.

Even so, economists at Fiserv Case Shiller Weiss think they have a pretty good idea what's in the cards for most metros in 2005.

Their prediction: Los Angeles will fizzle. Miami will sizzle.

There's some reason to believe them. Fiserv CSW has been forecasting annual home-price growth at the metro level for more than a decade, with a not-too-shabby record: the group's median forecast error is less than 2 percent.

To track housing performance, the researchers look at repeat sales data for a sample of houses in each zip code, a method they consider more accurate than simply looking at changes in an area's median home price.

They also consider past price changes, employment trends and interest-rate trends to devise a forecast for the coming year.

Finally, they make adjustments to individual areas to account for other factors that could influence an area's housing market.

What's up in L.A.?

Over the past five years home prices in the Los Angeles area appreciated 125 percent, with prices in a handful of zip codes up nearly 200 percent.

But Fiserv CSW is predicting that prices in the greater Los Angeles area will increase by only 5.8 percent in 2005, with slightly better appreciation in some L.A. markets and price declines in others.

"There is anecdotal evidence that the market there is weakening," said David Stiff, a senior economist with Case Shiller Weiss. "It hasn't worked its way into our model yet."

For that reason, the firm declined to give a forecast for individual zip codes in Los Angeles. "We are very uncertain about what will happen to home prices in Los Angeles this year," Stiff added.

Miami's market, however, may still have room to grow.

Home prices in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale metro have doubled over the last five years, and Fiserv CSW is forecasting that they will appreciate another 16.4 percent this year. "Unlike L.A., Miami has a higher ceiling [for price appreciation] because affordability is less of an issue," said Stiff.

What's the forecast for your hood? For each of the 10 largest metro regions tracked by Fiserv Case Shiller Weiss, here are the 10 zip codes with the largest median five-year price increases -- and their prospects for the coming year.

Data on five-year price change are through the fourth quarter of 2004, while the forecasted change is for the first quarter of 2005 through the first quarter of 2006.

Click on column headings to re-sort »
Metro Area Median
price
5-Yr Price
Change
1
Forecasted
change
2
Sea Isle City NJ 08243 699,000 136.50% 20.10%
Beach Haven NJ 08008 687,500 146.00% 14.30%
Burbank CA 91502 677,500 180.50% NA
Ocean City NJ 08226 650,000 133.80% 18.50%
Lavallette NJ 08735 557,500 127.00% 12.90%
Seattle WA 98109 556,000 53.00% 11.40%
Margate City NJ 08402 549,000 122.70% 17.10%
Glendale CA 91203 538,000 180.40% NA
Rockville MD 20850 523,000 109.80% 9.30%
Brielle NJ 08730 519,000 127.70% 11.70%
Chicago IL 60640 511,000 82.20% 12.50%
Seattle WA 98199 510,000 51.10% 8.20%
Gaithersburg MD 20878 485,500 112.00% 10.60%
Santa Ana CA 92707 475,000 176.10% NA
Oak Park IL 60302 450,000 80.50% 8.80%
Silver Spring MD 20910 450,000 112.00% 8.70%
Mira Loma CA 91752 449,000 182.50% NA
Dixon CA 95620 448,000 140.70% 16.10%
Seattle WA 98105 441,000 50.60% 6.90%
Inglewood CA 90305 425,000 176.60% NA
Oakley CA 94561 400,500 130.20% 21.40%
Rockville MD 20853 400,000 111.10% 12.30%
Seattle WA 98103 399,000 52.30% 8.90%
Manorville NY 11949 392,000 128.80% 16.30%
Vacaville CA 95687 391,500 129.70% 14.80%
Inglewood CA 90303 390,000 173.80% NA
Pittsburg CA 94565 389,000 129.90% 20.10%
Seattle WA 98116 389,000 51.10% 8.10%
Suisun City CA 94585 380,000 131.50% 17.20%
Seattle WA 98117 380,000 52.40% 8.40%
Vallejo CA 94589 370,000 135.70% 17.80%
Fairfield CA 94533 367,000 137.00% 18.00%
Silver Spring MD 20901 365,000 109.60% 12.50%
Seattle WA 98107 362,000 52.50% 9.50%
Vallejo CA 94590 361,000 149.00% 16.90%
Miami FL 33138 360,000 161.40% NA
Brigantine NJ 08203 358,500 149.50% 15.40%
Pompano Beach FL 33062 355,000 133.00% 20.00%
Mattapoisett MA 02739 353,500 110.70% 9.80%
Waretown NJ 08758 350,000 125.60% 15.50%
Silver Spring MD 20903 340,000 116.90% 12.40%
Gaithersburg MD 20877 329,000 127.40% 14.30%
Oakland CA 94603 326,500 135.70% 15.30%
Riverside CA 92509 325,000 174.70% NA
Ocean View NJ 08230 325,000 118.50% 15.30%
North Dartmouth MA 02747 324,500 110.90% 10.90%
Chicago IL 60641 320,000 79.80% 11.10%
Rockville MD 20851 320,000 112.50% 9.30%
Chicago IL 60630 318,000 83.30% 12.20%
Ann Arbor MI 48104 314,000 35.00% 1.30%
Oakland CA 94621 310,000 144.20% 15.00%
Gaithersburg MD 20879 309,000 115.90% 13.70%
Chicago IL 60634 300,000 83.20% 12.50%
Seattle WA 98126 294,000 57.80% 10.30%
Germantown MD 20874 291,000 117.80% 16.00%
Ventnor City NJ 08406 285,000 132.20% 18.50%
Fontana CA 92335 272,000 184.70% NA
Rialto CA 92376 270,000 191.90% NA
Chicago IL 60639 265,000 84.10% 11.20%
Miami FL 33137 265,000 171.30% NA
Marmora NJ 08223 265,000 116.50% 16.00%
Ann Arbor MI 48103 263,000 35.50% 2.90%
Wareham MA 02571 260,500 111.50% 8.20%
Perth Amboy NJ 08861 260,000 126.90% 13.00%
Fairhaven MA 02719 254,000 113.50% 9.80%
Deerfield Beach FL 33441 253,000 130.70% 17.10%
New Bedford MA 02745 245,000 112.30% 11.10%
Manchester NH 03102 242,000 111.10% 10.80%
Mastic NY 11950 239,500 127.20% 17.10%
Chicago IL 60638 237,000 90.90% 15.30%
Seattle WA 98106 233,000 53.40% 12.30%
Littlerock CA 93543 230,000 185.80% NA
Seattle WA 98168 229,000 48.80% 9.00%
Mastic Beach NY 11951 228,000 130.20% NA
Lawrence MA 01841 226,000 121.10% 9.90%
Somers Point NJ 08244 225,500 111.50% 16.00%
New Bedford MA 02740 225,000 118.10% 9.80%
Tuckerton NJ 08087 216,000 134.50% 13.70%
Northfield NJ 08225 207,500 117.30% 15.60%
New Bedford MA 02744 207,000 120.50% 9.60%
Chicago IL 60632 205,000 91.20% 13.80%
Hollywood FL 33020 204,000 128.30% NA
Chicago IL 60629 195,000 89.90% 16.70%
Worcester MA 01610 193,000 116.30% 16.20%
Chicago IL 60652 180,000 84.60% 16.00%
Fort Lauderdale FL 33311 175,000 134.50% 19.90%
Fort Lauderdale FL 33314 175,000 128.40% 22.80%
Pompano Beach FL 33064 171,000 126.90% 21.50%
Miami FL 33179 169,000 125.50% 18.20%
Villas NJ 08251 167,500 124.40% 20.60%
Bellport NY 11713 158,000 127.50% NA
Romulus MI 48174 145,000 35.80% 3.40%
Miami FL 33150 142,000 147.80% 21.80%
Mount Clemens MI 48043 136,000 35.90% NA
Center Line MI 48015 125,000 35.60% 5.50%
Dearborn Heights MI 48125 110,000 35.60% 3.40%
Detroit MI 48235 97,000 34.30% 2.00%
Inkster MI 48141 85,000 39.80% 3.80%
Pontiac MI 48342 75,000 37.90% 3.30%
Detroit MI 48223 75,000 35.30% 2.00%
Notes: 1Q4 1999 through Q4 2004 2Q1 2005 through Q1 2006
Source: Fiserv CSW



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