NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Stocks were set to nose their way into the green Friday, but they faced some big hurdles if they were going to stay higher into the weekend -- including worries over what might happen over the weekend itself.
"If someone is planning to get long today, God bless," said Kirlin Securities chief investment strategist Tony Dwyer. "People are trapped long and they're hoping to get out and they're hoping it recovers. Hope is not a good investment thesis."
| |
For details of Thursday's selloff, click above
|
|
Still, there was a little hope in the stock index futures, which were pointing toward a slightly higher open. But again, there are all those hurdles.
First hurdle: The University of Michigan's final reading of January consumer sentiment, which should hit the wires sometime between 9:45 a.m. and 10 a.m. ET. Although economists grouse that readings on confidence don't say much about the future spending patterns -- or even present ones, because there is often a world of difference between what people say and what people do -- traders have come to watch the sentiment index carefully. Why? For one thing, its dive in late 2000, was one of the earliest indications that the economy was in real trouble.
The forecast is for the index to be revised down to 83.5 from the originally reported 83.7.
Second hurdle: The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index, out at 10 a.m. Because the Chicago PMI covers one of the key manufacturing centers of the country, traders often use it to gauge how the national purchasing managers' index will come in.
The news could be good. Regional surveys from Philadelphia and New York suggest the index should run higher, and economists expect it picked up to 53 in January from 51.3 in December; any reading over 50 signifies growth in manufacturing activity.
Third hurdle: President Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair are meeting at Camp David in what is seen by Washington watchers as a council of war with, according to the Financial Times, Blair expected to suggest Bush seek a U.N. resolution authorizing military action. Late Thursday, Bush suggested exile for Saddam Hussein might avert war. That's helping soothe traders' nerves, but in the good-cop-bad-cop game that's being played, there could be tough talk out of Camp David.
Fourth hurdle: The weekend. With the war drum beating, Wall Streeters worry what could happen between now and Monday morning. That uncertainty makes them unwilling to put on new positions and quick to abandon old ones. Don't forget that last Friday the Dow Jones industrial average tumbled 238 points.
So what's the upside here? If, with all those things hanging over it, the market can close out the day in the positive column, it could be a signal that some big investors are beginning to see the market as cheap. That would limit losses in the weeks to come.
The only Dow member scheduled to report results Friday was Honeywell International (HON: Research, Estimates). The maker of aerospace components posted fourth-quarter income of 50 cents a share, down from 55 cents a year earlier.
Unless the Dow manages a gain of 186 or more points, it'll be another losing week for the blue-chip indicator. It was down 2 percent Thursday on a weak gross domestic product report. The Nasdaq composite index is a little less than 20 points down for the week so far, after being 2.6 percent lower in the Thursday session.
As for the so-called "January barometer," it would take a rally of spectacular proportions to salvage the Dow -- it's down 396.5 points for the month. And the S&P 500 is more than 35 points lower. But the Nasdaq has a chance to be positive, since it's just a little more than 13 points below its New Year's Eve close.
Tokyo stocks closed higher Friday, with the Nikkei's 0.3 percent gain snapping a five-session losing streak. Several Asian markets were closed Friday for the lunar new year celebration. European markets were lower in midday trading.
Treasury prices edged lower in early trading, sending the 10-year note yield up to 3.98 percent from 3.97 percent late Thursday. The dollar was little changed against euro and rose versus the yen.
Brent oil futures rose 1 cent to $31.22 a barrel in London, where gold was up to about $370 an ounce.
For morning analyst comments, click here.
|