NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
The parade of short skirts that sashayed down the runway on the opening day of the New York Fashion week Friday may not be daring enough to warm up Wall Street's chilly response to stocks lately.
The hemline theory, developed during the 1920s and 1930s, suggested that stocks rose when short skirts were in fashion and fell when longer skirts were in vogue. Critics of the indicator said the theory was probably an excuse that stock traders belonging to Wall Street's mostly boys club came up with to look at women's legs.
Traders today say current market concerns supersede any potential interest in the hemline theory. "Personally, I'd like to see women naked but short skirts are good, too," quipped Angel Mata, head of stock trading at Legg Mason. "But seriously, in any other period, people on Wall Street would be talking about this fashion trend. But it's the last thing on their minds right now."
He continued, "I haven't seen the markets suffering this badly since we had the stock market crash of 1987. I think investors today are more concerned [about] a war with Iraq and tension with North Korea than about fashion trends."
Perhaps the investment community has turned a blind eye to the miniskirt, but retail industry watchers are taking note.
"We got a lot of sizzle in the morning shows" at the opening of the event, said Tom Julian, a fashion trend analyst with Fallon, a Minneapolis-based marketing firm. "Everyone said that miniskirts will return and they were really all over the place in the first two shows by Kenneth Cole and the Lloyd Klein."
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Hemlines were short and rising at the Kenneth Cole show. |
New York Fashion week, an eight-day event held in a tent in Bryant Park in midtown Manhattan, showcases the fall 2003 fashion collections for department and specialty stores from designers such as Kenneth Cole, Donna Karan, Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein.
"Fall is the most important season for retailers because it covers the heavy sales period of the third and fourth quarters and there's been a lot of talk in the fashion and retail industries about the economy," Julian said.
"Designers are challenged by weak consumer spending. The short skirts are back because they're economical to produce, requiring less fabric, while the wash-and-wear lines are more palatable to buyers because they are more economical to maintain," he said.
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Fashion Week kicks off in Manhattan with designers from around the world hoping to boost their retail sales with some inspiring collections. Tom Julian, trend expert at Fallon, reports from the tents of New York's Bryant Park.
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Besides miniskirts, the other noticeable trend at the show was wash-and-wear, which industry experts said was meant to attract shoppers who want easy-care garments, especially with so many retailers wrestling with weak sales and profits.
"Last year we took a step back and tightened things up in the hope of becoming more lean and resilient to the changing climate," designer Kenneth Cole told CNNfn's The Biz. "But we also realize that in difficult times you have the greatest opportunities. Customers now want creative alternatives."
In other words, the fashion trend this year is leaning toward designs with a luxurious look that's unique, affordable, and easy for discount chains like Wal-Mart (WMT: unchanged at $46.79, Research, Estimates) and Target (TGT: down $0.40 to $26.80, Research, Estimates) to replicate.
"We watch the New York Fashion show with a lot of interest," said Douglas Kline, spokeman for Target Stores. "Our design team is spotting trends and seeking looks that our customers want, and that's high design at low prices." Target in the past has presented its own branded designs at the show, Kline said.
Wal-Mart could not be reached for comment.
Meanwhile, less expensive fabrics like cotton appear to be the fabric of choice for spring and summer.
"The trend in Europe is that we're seeing a lot of cotton shirts with velvet or lace trimmings, performance outerwear like insulated jackets and parkas, and bright colors that typically do well on the retail level," said Julian. "So it's a different look that's affordable."
But trend watchers also cautioned retailers -- citing Gap's example -- against trying to force feed a trend to consumers in the hopes of trying to be noticeably unique.
"About two years ago, the Gap (GPA: Research, Estimates) had this campaign about everybody has to be in leather. It was too forceful and too direct and it flopped," said Julian. "I think the winners this year in the apparel sector will be those creative heads that come to the market with saleable merchandise and new concepts that work well in the U.S. and globally."
It remains to be seen what miniskirts will do for retailers' bottom lines. And while minis may get a thumbs up from some traders on Wall Street, what's less predictable is whether they'll give a lift to ailing stocks.
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