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HP's report card
One year after the close of the Compaq merger, Hewlett-Packard gets a passing grade...barely.
April 24, 2003: 5:01 PM EDT
By Paul R. La Monica, CNN/Money Senior Writer

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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Can you believe it? May 3 is the one year-anniversary of the completion of the Hewlett-Packard/Compaq merger.

So I figured it's time for HP and CEO Carly Fiorina to get a Tech Investor report card. I've taken a look at how the company's four major business lines have done, as well as the stock's performance.

The Simon Cowell in me wants to say that the merger has been absolutely dreadful and give HP an F. But my inner Paula Abdul wanted to give Carly an A for effort since HP is trying really hard!

So I compromised. HP's overall grade is a C+, a passing mark but with much need for improvement. Or as the most fair-minded "American Idol" judge Randy Jackson might say, "You're all right Carly, but I'm not totally digging this Compaq thing, dawg."

Here's a closer look.

Consumer PCs and PDAs

Grade: C+ HP claimed the market share lead in PCs from Dell by buying Compaq. But the two have been flip-flopping ever since. Dell took the lead in the third quarter. HP won it back in Q4. And based on the latest data from International Data Corp, Dell is once again in the lead.

This fight has been highlighted by aggressive price cuts. But while Dell can afford to lower prices without sacrificing much in the way of profits, HP's operating margins in its consumer business were a microscopic 0.6 percent in its latest quarter, better than the loss HP put up in the previous quarter but not much to get excited about.

What's more, HP now has to worry about Dell in the handheld market too. HP had 18 percent market share in handhelds in the first quarter according to IDC, trailing only Palm. But Dell, which just entered the market in November, already ranks 4th, with a 6.5 percent share.

Servers, storage and software

Grade: D Revenue growth has been tough to come by for most tech companies catering to big businesses. But HP's enterprise-related woes are compounded by a cost structure that is still too high.

In the three full quarters since the close of the merger, HP has recorded $634 million in operating losses in the enterprise unit, which includes servers, storage and software.

True, HP should be lauded for narrowing its losses for the past three quarters in the division. But some rivals have been able to eke out profits despite weak demand.

IBM's enterprise hardware business was profitable in its latest quarter. Storage hardware company EMC reversed a string of losses and posted a profit in the fourth quarter of 2002 and this year's first quarter. Until HP can turn this division into a solid money maker, Wall Street will continue to worry.

Printers

Grade: A- HP is still the market share leader here and this business is by far the most profitable division for the company. In its latest quarter, HP had fat (or is it phat?) operating margins of 16 percent from printing and imaging.

Still, operating profit did fall slightly from the prior quarter and the fact that Dell is entering the printer market through a venture with #2 printer maker Lexmark is obviously somewhat of a concern.

Eric Ross, an analyst with Investec, said that he thinks HP should never have merged with Compaq in the first place so it could focus more attention on printers, which is a steady generator of revenues since ink cartridges and toner constantly need to be replaced.

"HP's best business is printing and imaging and the company diluted that by buying Compaq," said Ross. He doesn't own the stock and his firm has no investment banking relationship with HP.

Services

Grade: B One of the key goals of the merger was to make HP more like IBM, a diversified technology giant with a growing presence in services, one of the higher margin businesses in tech. HP has made some strides there recently.

In fact, if this story were written a month ago, HP's grade would not be nearly as high. But the company signed four significant consulting deals this month, including a $3 billion, 10 year deal with consumer products giant Procter & Gamble.

As my colleague Eric Hellweg pointed out this week, HP won this deal over IBM, a significant feat since IBM acquired the consulting business of PricewaterhouseCoopers last year, the same business that HP tried (and failed) to buy in 2000.

And if HP keeps winning big deals, that will have a huge impact on its bottom line. In its latest quarter, services accounted for 28 percent of operating profit and had margins of 11.5 percent.

Stock performance

Grade: C- At first blush, it looks like HP's stock has held up relatively well since the close of the merger. The stock is down 6 percent since May 3, compared to a more than 9 percent drop in the Nasdaq.

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However, when you look at how HP's main rivals have done, it's hard for HP (HPQ: Research, Estimates) shareholders to not be disappointed.

Shares of IBM (IBM: Research, Estimates) are up 5.5 percent. EMC (EMC: Research, Estimates) has gained 16.4 percent. Lexmark (LXK: Research, Estimates) is up 19 percent. And Dell (DELL: Research, Estimates) has shot up 22.9 percent.

Overall

Grade: C+ Wall Street still hasn't made up its mind on whether or not Carly is going to go down as a hero or pariah for engineering this deal. And since Compaq CEO Michael Capellas left HP in November to take the CEO job at WorldCom, Fiorina clearly will get all the accolades...or blame.

For now, HP gets a passing grade. It's not the class dunce in tech (that honor is probably more appropriate for Gateway or Sun Microsystems) but HP still has a lot to do before it earns a coveted spot on the industry's honor roll.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.