NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
The new rules on television station ownership might be both the best and worst thing for the nation's independent television station owners.
Among the rules being considered by the Federal Communications Commission Monday is a proposal that would allow the networks to own more of their affiliates themselves. The rules are also expected to open more markets to ownership of more than one affiliate by the same company.
The change in rules could allow some station owners to sell at a higher price than previously available.
"These (potential) buyers can pay one-to-three times the multiples more than were available before," said Wachovia Securities analyst Jim Boyle.
But this consolidation could cause further problems for any station owner that chooses to stay independent.
"It may give them an exit strategy, but if you want to hang around it'll be a tough go," said Tom Wolzien, Bernstein's media analyst.
And some of those station owners who pay the new higher multiple to buy a smaller station in their market could find it difficult to find the cost savings they need to justify the expense in some cases, said Boyle.
"Sometimes they tend to have rose-colored glasses; other times it's based on fairly conservative estimates," said Boyle.
Gains in station stocks
Many of the companies that own a collection of independent affiliates around the country have seen increases in their stock value in recent months, partly in anticipation that there could be sales of stations to the networks at a premium. New York-based Granite Broadcasting Corp. (GBTVK: Research, Estimates) and Young Broadcasting Inc. (YBTVA: Research, Estimates) have both seen their stocks climb more than 60 percent in the last few months. Hunt Valley, Md.-based Sinclair Broadcasting Group Inc. (SBGI: Research, Estimates) is up nearly 50 percent.
Officials with those companies did not return calls seeking comments on their plans or how they see the proposed rule changes.
Boyle said that he raised his recommendations on a number of stocks in the group a few months ago due to the increased price multiples being seen in deals being made in anticipation of a rules change. Wachovia has a position and has done investment banking for several of the companies that own the affiliates.
"When FCC starting gun goes off on Monday and indeed (joint ownership) is allowed in the top 100 markets, they can formalize deals that have been discussed," said Boyle. "Even with these gains, there's still some room for these stocks to run. For a number of months, investors weren't sure if regulators were going to come to a decision in June."
Network and affiliate tug of war
The networks have relatively thin profits from the network operations, but that is more than balanced by the healthy margins at the affiliates they own themselves, known as owned-and-operated stations. Networks are now able to have owned-and-operated stations that reach 35 percent of the nation's television viewers. They are pushing for approval to reach 45 percent of the nation.
There's always a tug-of-war between the networks and the affiliates on issues such as costs of programming, local advertising time availability, and other basic business issues. With nearly two-thirds of their viewership reached via independent affiliates, those station owners have clout in those negotiations that some fear will be lost if the networks can reach nearly half the nation with their own stations.
"It'll be harder and harder for an independent operator to compete," said Jim Goodmon, president of privately-held Capitol Broadcasting Co. in Raleigh, N.C. "I'm not saying I'd be forced to sell the stations to a network. But it's a threat to local ownership."
Goodmon owns two stations in two North Carolina markets, which he said he would prefer not to do, but feels he has to for competitive reasons.
"If you're in market and they (dual ownership) are available, you better do it, but I don't think it's a good idea," he said.
The networks insist that the changes they support will help improve profitability in the industry without drastically shifting power or diminishing different political voices from being heard.
"It's no secret we'd like to expand in the top 20 markets if this is approved and the opportunities are available to us," said CBS spokesman Dana McClintock. "But we're at 39 percent already (due to the CBS parent Viacom Inc.'s purchase of UPN). Going to 45 percent is not a tremendous change."
Andrew Butcher, spokesman for Fox parent News Corp. (NWS: Research, Estimates), said that with the company's proposed purchase of satellite television operator Hughes Electronics now under review, the company is not looking to buy any significant number of affiliates any time soon.
Click here for a look at media and entertainment stocks
"We wouldn't rule out stations in a few key markets, but (News Corp. Chairman Rupert) Murdoch told Congress last week we won't be out there wildly buying stations," Butcher said.
|