NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
It's one of the great mysteries of 2003: As tech stocks have been surging, why has mighty Microsoft barely budged?
There are plenty of theories. Debunking them -- and adding what's right about Microsoft now -- will go a long way toward explaining why the stock might be heading for a good spell.
Microsoft's (MSFT: Research, Estimates) shares are down about 3 percent this year, compared with the Dow's 4-percent-plus increase and the even more impressive 18 percent jump in the Nasdaq.
So what's ailing what is arguably the most successful technology company ever, the one with $46 billion in cash?
First off, Microsoft doesn't have much growth anymore. Analysts expect puny, low-single-digit earnings growth. However, Wall Street thinks that over the next five years Microsoft's growth will at least match the S&P 500's. So why punish it in the near term?
Second, Microsoft never fell apart like so many others, and it's reasonable that the busted techs would benefit more from renewed investor enthusiasm than Microsoft would. Reasonable, but no reason Microsoft shouldn't start to join the party.
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Then there's the dividend, which, at 8 cents a share, earns all of a 0.32 percent yield. Could it be that investors are actually punishing Microsoft for issuing a dividend, signaling that it's never going to be a growth stock again? That's silly, but possible.
Or about how about the recent reports of Steve Ballmer dumping stock? The guy waits a decade to sell any shares and then cashes out a relatively small portion of what he's got and some are upset. That's a non-argument. Give the guy a break.
The thing is, it's really hard to find things that are wrong with Microsoft. Even critics agree that paying AOL Time Warner (parent of this Web site) $750 million to settle antitrust litigation related to the old browser wars is a relative non-event for Microsoft, at least from a financial perspective.
In fact, what investors are overlooking is the near-term opportunity. Microsoft is in its fiscal fourth quarter, which ends June 30. A savvy investor tells me that Microsoft's hottest business at the moment is its server software line, whose sales force works extra hard in June to make its annual quota. It's also traditionally Microsoft's strongest quarter.
So let's add this up. A solid monopoly with less legal uncertainty that's in the middle of its strongest quarter and that hasn't participated much in the rally of 2003.
Sounds like a good idea to me.
Adam Lashinsky is a senior writer for Fortune magazine. Send e-mail to Adam at lashinskysbottomline@yahoo.com.
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