NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
For job-seekers, the summer months are not likely to bring wine and roses, according to a hiring forecast survey released Tuesday by Manpower Inc.
Across industries, a net 11 percent of the 16,000 employers Manpower surveyed said they expect to increase their hiring activity in the third quarter. That's down from 13 percent in the second quarter, and well below the 19 percent in the third quarter last year.
Simply put, this time last year "it was easier to find a job," said Manpower CEO Jeff Joerres.
In fact, when seasonal variations are stripped out of the data, this is the weakest job forecast in 12 years, according to Manpower.
Still, there are some relative bright spots in otherwise tough times.
A look across industries and regions
To give you some perspective, a strong job market nationally, regionally or within an industry is usually signaled when a net of 26 percent of employers expect hiring activity to increase in the next quarter, Joerres said.
When it comes to hiring expectations for the third quarter, that threshold was achieved only twice. A net 31 percent of mining companies in the West and 27 percent of construction companies in the Midwest said they expected hiring activity to increase.
Construction also is expected to be comparatively active in the South and Northeast – where 21 percent of employers expect an increase in new hires.
Though the numbers for construction are among the strongest for the upcoming quarter, they're not nearly as strong as they usually are this time of year. So when you take seasonality into account, the picture in construction is the worst it has been since 1992, Joerres said.
Elsewhere in the survey, an industry was doing comparatively well if the percentage of employers expecting an increase in hiring hit the mid-teens. (It should be said, however, that in most industries expectations for hiring increases were below second-quarter levels. That means it'll be tougher -- or at the very least, no easier -- to find work this summer.)
In all regions except the Northeast – which had the lowest overall expectations for increased hiring -- there is a fairly steady showing for jobs in finance, real estate and insurance. A net 16 percent of employers in the Midwest, and 13 percent in both the South and the West expect to see increased hiring activity.
Wholesale and retail trade jobs also made a comparatively good showing. A net 21 percent of employers in the Midwest, 16 percent in the Northeast and South, and 13 percent in the West expect to bring on more workers in the third quarter. Those are all increases over the second quarter net expectations. But like construction, on a seasonally adjusted basis the hiring expectations are not nearly as optimistic as they've been in prior years.
In the service industry – which is made up of companies that don't create products but offer, for example, consulting, retail sales, health care or programming – the best job prospects for the third quarter appear to be in the West, where 14 percent of employers expect an uptick in hiring.
Between the biggest rock and hardest place
Education and public administration are likely to be the worst places to look for a job – or to keep one.
There were more education employers in the Midwest, the Northeast and the West who expected a decrease in hiring activity than those who forecast an increase. The same can be said for public administration agencies in the Midwest and Northeast.
A negative number typically signals job losses ahead. Given states' budget crises, it wouldn't be surprising to see job cuts in the education and public administration arenas, Joerres said.
What headhunters are seeing
Discussions with headhunters echoed some of Manpower's findings but also offered more drilled-down examples of jobs becoming available.
John Challenger, head of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, has seen more listings for mid-career cost accountants, auditors and financial analysts. He's also seen an uptick in postings for residential construction workers, realtors, home inspectors and architects.
In the health care arena, nurses and hospital administrators are in demand, he said, as are pharmaceutical sales representatives.
Charley Donohoe, a North Carolina-based managing consultant for human resources consulting firm DBM, has found employers -- especially in manufacturing and banking -- are eager to hire mid-career and senior-level executives certified in the management technique known as Six Sigma. (Six Sigma is a quality-enhancement strategy that aims to prevent defects and improve process while boosting a company's bottom line.)
In information technology, he's seeing far more outsourced project opportunities than permanent jobs. Still, he said, the work pays fairly well and can last several months if not a year or more.
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Meanwhile, the top 10 categories for job postings on Monster.com in May included sales, health care, accounting, financial services and retail/wholesale positions.
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