NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Getting an extra wad of cash from Uncle Sam, in the form of tax rebate checks and lower payroll deductions arriving this month, doesn't necessarily mean Americans will head straight to the malls for a day of shopping.

Industry watchers said that with the unemployment rate at a nine-year high of 6.4 percent, the economy struggling to break out of a recession, and a budget deficit revised up to record territory around $455 billion, consumers could head straight to the bank instead.

The extra money is going to working families, small business owners and single professionals as a result of the new tax cut recently passed into law by the Bush administration.

Most of the 25 million taxpayers eligible for the child tax credit will receive a $400 check after July 25. For single taxpayers, a reduction in tax rates could mean an additional $20 or more a paycheck.

Retailers had been hoping that the tax cuts and rebates would lure customers back into stores and help pare the excess inventory that has been plaguing merchants for months.

"Rebates are wonderful to the extent that they are executed, regardless of the deficit," said Kurt Barnard, retail economist and president of Barnard's Retail Consulting Group.

However, "retailers shouldn't break out the champagne yet," Barnard added. "The rebates will have a very modest effect on spending. With a 6.4 percent unemployment rate, there are millions of people in the country with no income except for unemployment and welfare benefits. Millions more are on long-term unemployment, those that simply have stopped looking for work."

"These people won't take money and spend it. They're likely to save it, or use it carefully for basic living expenses," he said.

In fact, according to a recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, 31 percent of those who expect to receive an increase in take-home pay as a result of reduced federal tax withholding and/or who expect to receive a rebate check on the child tax credit say they will save the money, while 45 percent said they would use it to pay bills.

Only 22 percent they would spend it shopping.

But some economists, citing Tuesday's better-than-expected 0.5 percent pickup in June retail sales, have a different perspective.

"This was an honest-to-goodness better-than-expected report," said Lara Rhame, economist with Brown Brothers Harriman. "There were no special factors in it that made it look artificially strong. The report also indicates that consumer fatigue may not be as severe as we had previously thought."

Nevertheless, Rhame doesn't see a broad-based pickup in spending anytime soon.

"Generally it's the lower-income consumers who are more inclined to spend the extra cash, while the middle- to higher-income consumers are expected to smooth out their consumption over a period of time and save," she added.

"But the concern is there. More people will stop spending altogether if there is risk in the second half of the year of long-term interest rates rising," she said.

However, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, appearing before Congress Tuesday, raised the possibility of further interest rate cuts down the road if needed to prop up the economy.

Howard Davidowitz, chairman of New York-based national retail consulting firm Davidowitz & Associates Inc., sees a limited impact of rebates on retail sales ahead of the key back-to-school period.

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"Discount stores like Wal-Mart and dollar stores like Family Dollar (FDO: Research, Estimates) and Dollar General (DG: Research, Estimates) stand to gain the most from tax rebates because people are more price conscious," Davidowitz said. "The department stores won't get any lift in sales. Discounters could also steal sales away from specialty apparel chains"

Wal-Mart (WMT: Research, Estimates), already anticipating a sales boost from rebate checks, is offering customers the option to cash their checks at any of its Wal-Mart and Sam's Club stores at no charge beginning July 25.

"We did the same thing when people received tax rebate checks back in 2001, and we saw them using the money to shop at Wal-Mart," said Tom Williams, spokesman for the world's largest retailer. Williams added that Wal-Mart already has set up its back-to-school sections in its stores.

No. 1 clothing chain Gap Inc (GPS: Research, Estimates). opted to get an early start on its back-to-school apparel, debuting the collection July 7. However, the company declined to comment on whether it was expecting rebate checks to push up sales in July and August.

Lowe's (LOW: down $0.43 to $46.78, Research, Estimates), the No. 2 home-improvement chain behind Home Depot (HD: down $0.23 to $33.15, Research, Estimates), is offering customers a check cashing service at any of its stores.

"Historically, we know that when customers have access to additional cash, many homeowners choose to spend a portion of that money on projects that improve their largest asset -- their homes," said Larry Stone, Lowe's senior executive vice president of operations. Stone said there's no purchase required to use the service.