NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - For IBM shareholders, this year must feel like sitting in a car that's cruising at 55 on a freeway -- you're getting somewhere but everyone in the next lane is zipping by you.

The stock of the world's largest computer maker has risen 10.6 percent so far this year, a more-than-respectable showing considering that the shares tumbled 35.7 percent in 2002.

But Big Blue has lagged the performance of rivals Dell Computer (DELL: Research, Estimates), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ: Research, Estimates) and Sun Microsystems (SUNW: Research, Estimates), which have surged 26.7 percent, 31.9 percent and 60.1 percent, respectively.

One factor that's hurt IBM (IBM: Research, Estimates): the announcement last month that the Securities and Exchange Commission was looking at revenues from 2000 and 2001 for the company's unit that sells point-of-sale computer systems and kiosks to major retailers. (For more, see last month's column "IBM has the Big Blues.")

"The SEC investigation is weighing on the stock," said Robert Cihra, an analyst with Fulcrum Global Partners. "It's a real unknown that is keeping a lid on IBM." Cihra doesn't own the stock and Fulcrum does no investment banking.

But even if the SEC wasn't probing the company, it appears that investors in International Business Machines Corp. have more to worry about.

Armonk, N.Y.-based IBM is due to report second-quarter results Wednesday after the closing bell. Analysts are expecting a solid report -- earnings of 98 cents a share, up from 89 cents a year ago, and sales of $21.4 billion, compared to $19.7 billion in last year's second quarter.

But the numbers are likely to look less impressive upon closer examination.

Cihra expects about 60 percent of IBM's sales growth will be due to favorable currency comparisons. The weakness of the dollar in the second quarter helps multinational companies like IBM, which generated 54 percent of its sales from Europe and Asia in the first quarter. That's because sales overseas are worth more in dollars.

Most of the remaining growth will be due to acquisitions, Cihra noted. IBM bought the consulting business of PricewaterhouseCoopers last October and Rational Software in February.

"That leaves you with little or no organic growth," said Cihra. "Coming up with true organic growth is always a challenge for a company of IBM's size and that's likely to remain a concern in the future."

Investors are also likely to be less tolerant of the artificial means IBM has used to boost earnings per share in the past, such as big stock repurchases that reduce the number of shares outstanding.

As optimism continues to build about an imminent recovery in corporate tech spending, investors will want to see evidence of a real pickup in demand for IBM products.

Adam Adelman, senior technology analyst with Philippe Investment Management, a New York-based asset management firm that owns shares of IBM, said that he would be looking closely for signs of a recovery in software and more new contracts for services in IBM's report.

Success in these areas are key, he said, since these business have higher profit margins than IBM's hardware division, which makes desktops, notebooks and servers.

And if IBM can't prove to the market that it's capable of posting decent organic growth, that means the pressure will be on the company to do more deals, particularly in services and software.

To that end, IBM announced a software deal Tuesday, scooping up privately held Australian Web content management company Aptrix, which competes with U.S. companies Broadvision (BVSN: Research, Estimates), Interwoven (IWOV: Research, Estimates) and Vignette (VIGN: Research, Estimates). Terms were not disclosed.

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Of course, IBM is by no means a slouch. Its market heft certainly gives it an advantage over much smaller competitors. But companies like HP, Dell and EMC (EMC: Research, Estimates), which is stepping up its efforts against IBM in the storage market through last week's acquisition of Legato, are formidable rivals with stronger growth prospects.

And while IBM has been seen as a somewhat safe, stable and diversified company, that's not likely to help Big Blue if techs continue to surge.

"Slower growth will hold IBM back, especially in a bull market," said Adelman.

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