NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Big Blue is blazing.

IBM had been a laggard for most of the year but since the beginning of September, the stock has gained 13 percent and is now up 20 percent for the year. IBM (IBM: Research, Estimates) had been testing the $90 level for months and finally closed above it on Sept. 16 -- the first time it had done so since April 2002.

Now at $93, can the $100 mark be far behind?

Whether it makes the move -- and whether it deserves to -- will depend in large part on how third-quarter results, due Wednesday afternoon, shake out.

Analysts expect third-quarter earnings of $1.02 per share, up from 99 cents a year ago.

As always is the case for IBM, the big question will be revenue growth, forecast to be healthy at 10 percent. It may even beat that number because of the continued weakness of the dollar. That's what happened in the second quarter, as the stronger yen and euro helped lift the dollar value of international sales, which accounted for 56 percent of IBM's total revenue in the quarter.

But IBM said that without the benefit of currency fluctuations, it would have posted just a 3 percent increase in sales in the second quarter instead of the 10 percent reported gain -- pretty anemic.

So if IBM is to top the $100 mark in the near future, the company will probably need to give some encouraging words about the corporate tech spending outlook for the fourth quarter and beyond in its call Wednesday.

If not, it's going to be tough to continue to justify the current price-to-earnings ratio of 19 (based on 2004 estimates).

Kimberly Caughey, an analyst with Parker/Hunter, said she sees little upside for IBM from current levels. "You hear all this chat about the economy bouncing back, and that is what has buoyed the stock," said Caughey. "But we're not looking for results to be that fabulous." Caughey has no position in IBM and her firm has no investment banking relationship with the company.

IBM has its fingers in many pieces of the IT pie -- with multibillion-dollar hardware, software and services businesses -- so it's reasonable to expect that an improving economy will be good for Big Blue.

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But given its massive size, it's hard for IBM to be a high-growth company. Sales are currently expected to increase at just a 6 percent clip in 2004.

And when you consider how the market is valuing another revenue-challenged tech conglomerate, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ: Research, Estimates), it makes IBM's price seem all the more rich.

HP is trading at 15 times calendar 2004 earnings estimates, a more than 20 percent discount to IBM. But HP's sales growth is in line with IBM's with estimates for 6.5 percent growth. Plus, HP's earnings growth is expected to outpace IBM's, with projections of a 19 percent increase, compared with 14 percent for Big Blue.

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IBM and HP are not pure-play comparisons. HP does not have the presence in software that IBM has and it is playing catch-up in services.

But then again, HP does have in its printer business, well, a license to print cash. And the long-term projected annual earnings growth rates for both companies are exactly the same: 10 percent.

Something's got to give. HP either is undervalued or IBM is overvalued. Unless IBM blows the cover off of its estimates or raises guidance substantially, I'm betting on the latter.

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