NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Hollywood is looking for a happy ending to an uneven 2003 when the holiday season movie blitz starts next week.
With about a half-dozen films with a budget of $100 million or more expected to debut between now and the end of the year, studios are making a big bet on a strong finish to what has been a generally flat year in terms of ticket-office take. But box office analysts say that many of the films due out are well positioned to recoup even those staggering costs.
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| The final chapter in the "Lord of the Rings" trilogy hits theaters in December. |
No company has more at stake, or more potential upside, this fall than Time Warner Inc. (TWX: Research, Estimates). The parent of both Warner Bros. and New Line Cinema, as well as CNN/Money, has two big-budget sequels due out. Warner Bros. kicks off the fall season with "Matrix Revolutions" Nov. 5, the final chapter in the cult science-fiction trilogy, with an estimated budget of $150 million. In addition, New Line's third Lord of the Rings movie, "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King," is due in theaters Dec. 17.
In addition New Line has the family picture "Elf" in theaters Nov. 7, two days after Matrix's mid-week debut. And Warner Bros. has the latest Tom Cruise movie, "The Last Samurai" in theaters Dec. 5.
Movie forecasting firm Box Office Prophets estimates that the domestic take from those four films alone could come in between $800 million and as much as $1 billion, with the overseas take pushing them well above that level.
"It's been Disney's year so far, but it's certainly looking like Time Warner's holiday," said Box Office Prophets President David Mumpower, who is looking for a $120 million five-day open for Matrix.
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| "Matrix Revolutions" is set for release on Nov. 5. |
"There is some risk -- not everyone who saw the sequel liked it," he said about the new Matrix. "But generally the middle films in trilogies make less than the third film." The second Matrix film had U.S. box office of $281 million, and the second Lord of the Rings film did $339 million domestically.
Of course Time Warner won't have the multiplexes to itself. There aren't many weekends between now and the end of the year that don't have a big budget film set to debut.
"November and December are pound-for-pound just as important as the summer," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box office tracker Exhibitor Relations Co. "You see about 20 percent of the gross for the year in about seven or eight weeks. And this year looks to me to be a strong finish to a year that has really had its ups and downs."
The packed schedule raises the risks for films, forcing them to find an audience quickly or make an even quicker exit from theaters than they might in the summer, said independent media analyst Dennis McAlpine.
"Look at 'Elf.' It's got a week before the Looney Tunes movie is out and another week before 'Cat in the Hat,' and then another week to 'Haunted Mansion,'" said McAlpine, talking about the November family films. "There's no breathing room."
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| Tom Cruise in "The Last Samurai" |
Walt Disney Co. (DIS: Research, Estimates) scored big this summer with stakes in the top two grossing films - Pixar's "Finding Nemo" and its own "Pirates of the Caribbean," the only two films to cross $300 million in domestic box office. Its schedule this fall includes the animated "Brother Bear," which goes into wide release Nov. 1, followed by the Eddie Murphy comedy "Haunted Mansion," on Nov. 26, the latest film to be based on one of its theme park rides. Finally "The Alamo," a big-budget epic, is due out Christmas Day.
Vivendi's (V: Research, Estimates) Universal has the big-budget live-action "Dr. Seuss' Cat in the Hat," staring Mike Myers in the same kind of heavy make-up job used by Jim Carey in the Grinch movie three years ago. It also has Hugh Grant's "Love Actually" and the live-action version of Peter Pan due on Christmas Day.
But some of the other studios have a much more limited released planned. Sony (SNE: Research, Estimates) has one major release, the new Julia Roberts film "Mona Lisa's Smile" due Dec. 19, and three mid-range releases, including "Something's Got to Give" starring Jack Nicholson, due out Dec. 12.
The studio with the toughest outlook, according to forecasts, is Viacom (VIA: Research, Estimates) unit Paramount, which has the science fiction film "Timeline" due out Nov. 26, and "Paycheck," another science fiction movie due Christmas Day from a star, Ben Affleck, and a director, John Woo, whose latest films have been major box office bombs. Some studios, such as MGM (MGM: Research, Estimates), don't even have a holiday release scheduled.
"Sometimes it's better to not have anything on your schedule than have something like 'Timeline,' which you have to spend money marketing even though you know its going to be a dog," said Mumpower.
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