NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The One we've been waiting for is finally here.

No, not Keanu Reeves in The Matrix Revolutions (although being a bit of a geek, I am pretty psyched for the denouement of this trilogy, despite the disappointing second stanza). The One is Cisco Systems, due to report results for the latest quarter on Wednesday afternoon.

This is the one earnings report that can provide a lot of answers about whether this technology rally has more legs. Sure, we've already had encouraging results from the likes of Intel, Microsoft and IBM. But those were just appetizers. Cisco is the main course.

That's because Cisco, more than any other big tech company that has already reported earnings, can really paint the purest picture of the corporate spending environment right now.

More than two-thirds of Cisco's revenue comes from selling routers and switches to large and mid-sized businesses and telecom service providers. And nearly another 20 percent comes from support services and consulting fees. Yeah, Cisco now sells routers to John Q. Public thanks to its acquisition of Linksys. But that's a tiny part of the company's overall business.

So if Cisco had a strong quarter, it can't be explained by things such as a strong back-to-school shopping season or tax refund checks. It's all about businesses starting to spend. Analysts expect Cisco to report profits of 15 cents a share excluding one-time items for its first quarter, up from 14 cents a year ago. And sales are forecast at $4.9 billion, up from $4.8 billion a year earlier.

But investors are typically not satisfied when Cisco merely meets expectations. Cisco has a history of beating earnings estimates by a penny. It didn't do so in August and the stock got punished. Wall Street will also be particularly interested in what Cisco does on the top line.

Investors really want to see $5 billion in quarterly sales because revenues have been stuck in a range of $4.3 billion to $4.8 billion since the third quarter of fiscal 2001. If Cisco can crack the $5 billion barrier, that could be seen as a significant feat, and further proof for tech bulls that businesses have finally removed the chains that seem to be bolted to the wallets CFOs use for information technology (IT) spending.

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"Recent economic data gives us confidence that corporate spending is coming back to life, so I'm hoping sales could be above $5 billion. That would set a strong tone for the rest of the year," said Michael Davies, an analyst with Caris & Co.

Cisco could also set a strong tone if CEO John Chambers chooses to discuss the outlook for the rest of the fiscal year, and not just the next quarter. The current consensus estimates for Cisco's fiscal second quarter are for earnings of 16 cents a share and sales of $5 billion. For the full year, Wall Street expects a profit of 64 cents and sales of $20.3 billion.

Now these full year projections are not terribly exciting because it only implies earnings growth of 8.5 percent from fiscal 2003 and a sales increase of just 7.7 percent. So if Chambers raises guidance, this would be a huge plus for Cisco and other tech stocks.

And investors won't just be paying attention to the numbers either. They'll be looking for clues in what Chambers actually says. "It's almost like Chambers is getting to be Alan Greenspan. The little things he says get interpreted in all different ways," said Timm Bechter, an analyst with Legg Mason.

To that end, if Chambers says something like "the 100-year flood is over," (Chambers invoked that term in April 2001 to describe just how rotten things had gotten for Cisco), then tech stocks could skyrocket.

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But if Chambers continues to use what seems to be his favorite term of the year, that this is a "show-me economy," meaning that companies still aren't comfortable enough to increase IT spending, then look out below.

Techs, in case you've been living under a rock, are having a monstrous year. Shares of Cisco have soared 66 percent so far this year and are trading at about 34 times fiscal 2004 earnings estimates.

While that may not be as bubblicious as the triple-digit P/E Cisco routinely traded at during the market's peak more than three years ago, it does seem a bit pricey for a company that is expected to post earnings and sales growth of less than 10 percent in 2004.

So Chambers really needs to give investors some sort of indication that current estimates are too low. If not, Cisco and many other techs for that matter -- the S&P Tech index is trading at 29 times estimates for the next four quarters -- would really start to look extremely expensive.

Or as Keanu might say, "Whoa."

Davies and Bechter own shares of Cisco but neither of their firms have an investment banking relationship with the company.

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