NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Wall Street is expecting nothing less than a spectacular report from personal computer market leader Dell Thursday.
The consensus earnings estimate for Dell's fiscal third quarter is 26 cents a share, a 24 percent increase from a year earlier. And analysts are predicting sales of $10.5 billion, a 15 percent jump from the same period last year.
If Dell (DELL: Research, Estimates) hits these targets, it would be by all accounts a fantastic quarter, especially as rivals Hewlett-Packard (HPQ: Research, Estimates) and Gateway (GTW: Research, Estimates) continue to struggle to make money in the cutthroat PC business.
But strong results are not a surprise from Dell. They are actually the norm.
Good news from Dell is nothing new
Even during the brutal corporate tech spending downturn of the past three years, Dell was able to thrive by keeping costs down and gaining market share. So merely meeting estimates might not be enough now that the market is starting to feel more optimistic about tech demand and the overall economy.
To that end, Bill Fearnley Jr., an analyst with FTN Midwest Research, said that Dell should probably report earnings of 27 cents a share and that sales could come in at $10.6 billion. Ted Parrish, co-manager of the Henssler Equity fund, which owns Dell, thinks earnings of 28 cents and revenue of $10.75 billion are not out of the question.
And considering the strong third-quarter results that semiconductor kingpin Intel reported last month, it would probably be a huge disappointment if Dell does not beat estimates -- since Intel noted that it was seeing a pickup in consumer demand for desktop and notebook computers. Dell was Intel's largest customer in 2002.
"Semiconductors are doing well and those chips are going into Dell computers," said Matthew Kelmon, president of Kelmoore Investment Co., which does not have a stake in Dell.
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Investors also will be hoping to hear some positive news about Dell's fiscal fourth quarter, which tends to be its strongest due to holiday shopping. Analysts expect Dell to post earnings of 28 cents per share and sales of $11.2 billion in the quarter.
The company, like HP and Gateway, is also making a bolder push into the consumer electronics market, which should boost sales in the quarter. Dell recently unveiled a line of flat-screen televisions and a portable digital music player to compete with Apple's successful iPod.
Dell dominates, but stock reflects that
Still, Kelmon said he's wary of Dell because of its valuation. Shares have risen 31 percent this year and the stock trades at 29 times earnings estimates for its next fiscal year, which ends in January 2005. Kelmon said he might be tempted to buy Dell following the earnings report if the news is so good that it causes a major upward revision to next year's earnings projections.
But given Dell's fairly conservative nature, that's not likely to happen. The company has so far steadfastly refused to give any indication that corporate spending is materially picking up, preferring instead to stick to the mantra that Dell can continue to gain market share even if demand does not pick up.
"I don't think Dell will come out and pound the table on corporate spending," Henssler's Parrish said. "It's as if Dell is operating in a vacuum."
Parrish does think that Dell will show strong results in areas such as servers and storage, which are more corporate driven than consumer driven. But he thinks it's too soon to say whether this is the beginning of a broad corporate spending pickup or just a one-quarter blip. For this reason, Parrish said he would not buy more Dell at these levels.
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