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Warner deal: New talent windfall?
Some experts say pause in industry consolidation trend will help new acts gain entree.
November 24, 2003: 3:10 PM EST

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Hey, are you the kind of music fan who likes to hear new artists on the radio and listen to new band tracks at the CD store? Then you should cheer Monday's Warner Music deal.

But if you are a fan of an existing Warner act, you may end up having to follow it to another label as a result of the sale.

At least that's what the experts think is the likely fall out.

Monday, Time Warner Inc. agreed to sell its Warner Music unit to a private investment group led by Edgar Bronfman Jr. The deal is a big one ... $2.6 billion. But despite the size, it won't change the dynamics of the industry overnight.

Warner Music, which is keeping the name despite losing the namesake parent, is still going to be a major music company with nearly $1 billion in quarterly revenue. Its current artists include Madonna and Faith Hill, along with a catalog of former greats from Led Zepplin to Frank Sinatra.

By making the sale, Time Warner passed on a potential deal with EMI Group PLC that would have furthered consolidation in the music industry. Earlier it had passed on discussions of a possible deal with Bertelsmann's BMG Entertainment, which has since agreed to hook up with Sony Music in a deal that still is pending regulatory approval.

The fact that this latest deal didn't continue the trend of consolidation was hailed by some observers as a victory for music diversity.

"Consolidation is destroying artist development," said Jay Cooper, attorney for the Recording Artists Coalition, which has battled the record labels on behalf of performers. "I don't think it [the deal] stops consolidation. But if it had gone to EMI, it would have been that much less of a budget for finding new artists."

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Bobby Rosenbloum, another attorney who represents artists, including some at Warner Music, agrees that Warner Music staying independent is a victory for those who want to see more new artists develop.

"The independent move is going to be more positive for the industry than the consolidation move would have been," Atlanta-based Rosenbloum said. "If we had been left with three rather than four or five major record companies, the new artist signings would have been cut that much more."

Both Rosenbloum and Cooper believe the new private owners of Warner Music will be able to be more patient with the development of new talent than a public media conglomerate like Time Warner could be.

Michael Nathanson, analyst with Wall Street research firm Bernstein, agrees with the attorneys that there will be more money available for development with an independent Warner Music. But he said he also expects Warner will cut ties with some of its artists.

"In the short term, it's going to lead to reduction of the artists on contracts, as it moves to cut unprofitable relationships pretty aggressively," Nathanson said. "Some of that would have happened anyway, but this speeds it up -- you have an owner who just put a lot of cash into it and needs to get some of that cash back out."

But Nathanson said that while some of those artists' plans for new records might be pushed back by any upheaval, such a paring of the Warner Music stable could help some of the smaller independent labels, or even lead to new independent recording companies being formed as the artists look for new homes.

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"They may not have been profitable for a big record company, but they were getting air time and music sales," Nathanson said. "You'll see some very known bands going to self-release of albums, many more independent companies having shelf-space at retail."

Nathanson said that when Bronfman previously bought and developed Universal Music into the industry leader during his team at Seagram's, the recording company had a reputation as being a leader in developing new talent, especially urban artists, while cutting ties with some less profitable stars in its stable.

Nathanson said it's not likely that Warner Music will sell or spin off any of its record labels, which include Atlantic, Elektra, Reprise, and Warner Bros. Records.

"It's more likely they would close a label than spin it off," he said.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.