NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
AT&T is hosting an analyst meeting Wednesday, and according to the company's Web site, management will discuss "how AT&T will lead the transformation in telecommunications."
For suffering shareholders, the idea that AT&T could actually again be an industry leader is tough to buy. Many, in fact, would be just happy to hear a plan for halting the company's long decline.
AT&T's long-distance business continues to erode, due to aggressive price competition and the increasing use of wireless phones. The business of providing telecom services to large corporate clients is a more promising growth vehicle, but it is also facing competitive pressures, which could get worse when MCI emerges from bankruptcy.
"AT&T has said it will be aggressive on price but it has never been as aggressive as MCI," said Todd Rosenbluth, an equity analyst with Standard & Poor's.
Analysts expect revenues to fall 9 percent this year, with a 42 percent plunge in profits. For 2005, Wall Street is forecasting a 5 percent decline in sales and 22 percent decrease in earnings.
AT&T (T: Research, Estimates) stock fell nearly 20 percent last year and is down about 2.5 percent so far this year.
So what can Ma Bell do to get back on track?
A new AT&T Wireless
While it's unclear what exactly will come out of Wednesday's meeting at New York's Grand Hyatt hotel, here are some things that might help.
First, the company needs a wireless solution, now that AT&T Wireless is being sold to Cingular.
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AT&T spun off AT&T Wireless in 2001, and AT&T Wireless has since paid a licensing fee to its former parent for use of the brand name.
Last year, AT&T began reselling AT&T Wireless service to its customers, enabling it to offer customers a more complete phone package -- necessary to compete with Verizon, BellSouth and SBC, which each own a part of a wireless carrier and offer bundled packages.
Since Cingular management has said it will be keeping its brand name, Ma Bell will be at a huge disadvantage since it probably would not want to offer its customers a service that is owned by two competitors. (Cingular is co-owned by BellSouth and SBC.)
"AT&T definitely needs wireless. Once you don't have wireless, you don't really have anything," said Lynda Starr, an analyst with Probe Group, an independent research firm that focuses on telecom.
Paul Kranhold, a spokesman for AT&T, said the company does have plans to keep the AT&T Wireless brand alive. "We are excited about getting the brand back," Kranhold said. "This opens up all kinds of alternatives for us." He wouldn't comment on specific wireless plans.
In order for AT&T to get back into the wireless game, there are two options. It could buy another carrier...but that seems highly unlikely.
Analysts said AT&T would probably look to enter a wholesale agreement with another carrier similar to what Qwest is doing. Next week Qwest will begin to offer a Qwest-branded wireless service to its customers over Sprint PCS's network. So instead of reselling a competitor's product, AT&T could restart the AT&T Wireless brand and pay another carrier for use of its network.
VoIP is the future but the future isn't now
In addition to wireless, analysts said AT&T's success depends largely on the emerging technology known as voice over Internet protocol, or VoIP, which enables phone calls over broadband connections.
AT&T announced in December that it would roll out VoIP to consumers during the first quarter of 2004. It already has a service for corporate customers but this is still a very nascent business. And Wall Street seems to be running out of patience with the company.
"AT&T is reinventing itself as a voice over IP player," said Jeff Kagan, an independent telecom analyst. "But when will VoIP move from a niche to the mainstream?" Kagan thinks the answer is years, not the next few quarters.
So what's this mean for AT&T investors? At first blush, the stock looks undervalued. Shares trade at 14.5 times 2004 earnings estimates and about half of projected 2004 revenues. And of course, there's that big fat dividend. AT&T's yield is 4.8 percent, more than 70 basis points higher than the yield on a 10-year Treasury note.
Still, given the lack of growth, there's little more than the payout that makes AT&T attractive. "The dividend is the only toothpick holding up the stock right now," said Barry Sine, an analyst with HD Brous.
In other words, 2004 for AT&T could look an awfully lot like 2003 for Ma Bell shareholders.
"There's nothing to suggest in the near-term that there would be an immediate turnaround for AT&T," said Bob Straus, manager of the Icon Telecommunications and Utilities fund, which does not own shares of AT&T.
Analysts quoted in this story do not own shares of the companies mentioned and their firms have no investment banking relationships with the companies.
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