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Consumer prices edge up
Modest February increase in line with expectations, core prices slightly higher than forecasts.
March 17, 2004: 2:11 PM EST
By Mark Gongloff, CNN/Money Staff Writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. consumer prices rose in February, the government said Wednesday, matching Wall Street forecasts.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index (CPI), a broad measure of prices paid by consumers, rose 0.3 percent after rising 0.5 percent in January. Economists, on average, expected CPI to rise 0.3 percent, according to Briefing.com.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the so-called "core" CPI rose 0.2 percent after rising 0.2 percent in January. Economists expected core CPI to rise 0.1 percent, according to Briefing.com.

"I don't think there needs to be much concern about inflation right now," said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities. "Apart from energy, very few of the broad categories of prices have changed much in their direction."

U.S. stock prices rose after the report, while Treasury bond prices fell. Bond yields, which move opposite to price, rose, but remained near their lowest levels since last summer, following a recent rally.

Energy prices rose 1.7 percent, the Labor Department said, following a 4.7-percent jump in January. Food prices rose 0.2 percent after being flat in January.

Transportation costs posted the second-biggest gain in the report, up 0.7 percent, driven by a 2.5-percent rise in gasoline prices. Transportation and gas prices rose 1.7 percent and 8.1 percent in January, respectively.

Medical care costs rose 0.6 percent, housing prices rose 0.2 percent, and education and communication costs rose 0.3 percent

Otherwise, core inflation was still relatively tame. In the past 12 months, the core rate has risen just 1.2 percent, near the lowest level since 1966.

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With other measures of core inflation low for the past several months -- and expected to remain low in the near future -- the Federal Reserve on Tuesday left its target for an overnight interest rate at the lowest level in more than 40 years and pledged to be "patient" before raising rates.

The Fed and many other economists focus on measures of core inflation because energy and food prices can be volatile. But some economists worry that ignoring those prices obscures the full measure of consumer living costs.

In any event, in the past three months, among major CPI categories, only clothing prices have fallen, by 3 percent, while other costs have risen sharply. Energy prices have risen 30.1 percent, transportation prices have risen 9 percent, medical costs have risen 5.4 percent, "other goods and services" -- which includes tobacco -- are up 3 percent, food is up 2.7 percent and education is up 2.2 percent.

Meanwhile, core goods prices rose 0.2 percent in February, the first such gain since Aug. 2002.

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"If you live in the real world, inflation is not as tame as the members of the [Fed monetary policy committee] would like us to believe," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisers.

Some economists also worry that super-low interest rates could contribute to dangerous price bubbles in stocks, bonds, real estate -- or all three. In fact, Stephen Roach, influential chief global economist at Morgan Stanley, has called lately for an immediate and dramatic hike in interest rates.

Few other economists think that would be a good idea, but some do agree that the Fed is running the risk of letting inflationary pressures build to dangerous levels.

On Thursday, the Labor Department is scheduled to release its producer price index (PPI) for January. The PPI, a measure of wholesale inflation, has been delayed for about a month while the department adjusted industry classifications.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.