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It's nice to be popular
Guess what? Some of the most widely held stocks still look like great buys.
March 23, 2004: 3:03 PM EST
By Michael Sivy, CNN/Money contributing columnist

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Three of the most widely held stocks -- Pfizer, GE and Home Depot -- still look like great buys.

Academic explanations of the stock market -- often called efficient market theory -- predict that once a company's strengths are widely recognized, its share price will rise in anticipation of the stock's bright prospects.

The idea that good news is always fully reflected in a stock's price certainly sounds plausible. Maybe it's even true most of the time. But every once in a while, there's a glaring counterexample, a case where popular stocks with widely recognized advantages still remain attractively priced, or even slightly undervalued.

I was struck by just such a case of seeming market inefficiency when I opened the April issue of Better Investing, the magazine of the National Association of Investors Corporation, a Michigan organization that promotes individual stock ownership, especially through investment clubs.

The NAIC advocates a system of value-conscious long-term growth investing similar to the approach I recommend. Every year, the organization surveys the investment clubs that follow its principles to find the stocks that are most popular.

Over the past four years, many of the clubs have been lightening up on technology and favoring other sectors that offer above-average earnings growth.

Popular tech stocks -- such as Intel, Cisco Systems and Microsoft -- still figure among the 10 most widely held. But the top three are non-techs: Pfizer, General Electric and Home Depot. And most striking, all three of these stocks are quite reasonably priced relative to their projected growth rates.

Pfizer is not only the largest drug company, more than twice the size of its nearest rival. It's also a research and development powerhouse that markets eight of the 25 best selling drugs in the world.

Recent research has confirmed the quality of Pfizer's products. A major study released in early March surprised the industry by concluding that Pfizer's cholesterol drug Lipitor appeared to be more effective than some of its competitors. A week later, another study showed that Pfizer's new treatment for breast cancer appears to be more effective than existing drugs.

Moreover, Pfizer has 20 major new products in development. Earnings are projected to rise 20 percent this year and continue to grow at a 13 percent compound annual rate over the next five years. At $34.70, the stock trades at less than 17 times estimated 2004 earnings.

General Electric remains an extraordinary collection of top-performing assets, despite a share-price decline of nearly 50 percent over the past three and a half years.

The company's businesses range from aircraft engines and power systems to consumer finance and the NBC television network. Most recently, GE announced that it would buy InVision Technologies, a producer of explosives-detection technology used in airports, for $900 million in cash. InVision is projected to grow revenues at a 20 percent annual rate.

Although full-year 2003 earnings gained only 3 percent, growth picked up late in the year, and GE reported a 45 percent earnings gain for the fourth quarter. Guidance for the first quarter has been positive and earnings are expected to return to double-digit annual growth within the next two years. At $30.72, the stock trades at less than 20 times 2004 earnings.

Home Depot, the largest home-improvement chain, continues to benefit from a strong housing market fueled by low mortgage rates. In addition, the company plans to open 175 new stores in 2004, a 10.3 percent increase. Home Depot is also bolstering earnings by revamping existing outlets and improving its information systems technology.

Results for the company's most recent quarter and fiscal year were quite strong, with a 39 percent gain in net income on a 14 percent rise in revenues. Profits are projected to rise nearly 15 percent in 2004 and continue to grow at a 12.5 percent compound annual rate over the next five years. At $36.99, the stock trades at a P/E below 18.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.