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Bonds dip, dollar rises
Dollar strengthens on possible interest rate increase that pushed Treasury yields to six-month high.
April 14, 2004: 4:47 PM EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Treasury yields approached six-month highs following a jump in U.S. inflation indicators that have economists anticipating a possible interest rate hike in the summer.

"A Fed move in late summer is a high probability bet right now," Cary Leahey, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities told Reuters.

At about 4 p.m. EST, the benchmark 10-year note shed 4/32 of a point to 97-2/32 to yield 4.37 percent, up from 4.35 percent late Tuesday, and the 30-year bond fell 3/32 of a point to 103 to yield 5.17 percent, up from 5.15 percent late in the previous session.

The two-year note dropped 5/32 of a point to 98-28/32 to yield 2.09 percent and the five-year note lost 6/32 to 98-20/32 to yield 3.42 percent.

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Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The consumer price index firmed 0.5 percent in March, topping forecasts of a 0.3 percent gain, though its annual rate of growth held at 1.7 percent.

More alarmingly for the bond market, the core rate, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.4 percent when analysts had looked for only a 0.2 percent gain. That took the annual rate to 1.6 percent from 1.2 percent and suggested the risks for inflation were now decidedly to the upside.

"The Fed should respond with a rate increase earlier than the previous timetable had suggested," Jeoff Hall, chief North American economist at Thomson IFR told Reuters. "Now we're looking at perhaps a 1-3/4 percent funds rate by the end of this year."

Inflation is a negative for bond investors as its can erode the value of the principal amount while prices climb.

In addition, the U.S. trade gap narrowed to $42.1 billion in February from the record $43.5 billion in January and economists' estimates of $42.5 billion.

"The trade balance was narrower than expected, so that should push most (U.S.) GDP forecasts toward 5 percent in the first quarter," Tim Mazanec, senior currency strategist with Investors Bank & Trust in Boston, told Reuters.

"The dollar is stronger, mostly on the back of increased rate hike expectations," he said.

The euro bought $1.1967 compared to $1.1946 the previous day, and the dollar bought ¥108.75, inching up from ¥106.63 the day earlier.  Top of page

-- Reuters contributed to this story.



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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.