NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Roughly 64 percent of the S&P 500 companies are expected to report first-quarter earnings over the next two weeks, and by all accounts, the results should impress. But with geopolitical and rate hike fears in place, the stock market may not exactly cheer.

It sure didn't this week, with the major indexes sticking to a tight range as investors acknowledged strong corporate profits, but kept an eye on the rising signs of inflation and ongoing strife in Iraq.

Many analysts say the inevitable rise in rates won't choke off the economic recovery any time soon. In addition, a rise in rates would not necessarily be a negative for the stock market, as it would be a response to improving economic conditions, ultimately good for corporate profits.

The debate about whether Wall Street should toast or scorn inflationary signs is not likely to be resolved in the week ahead. What should become abundantly clear, however, is just how strong first-quarter earnings were, particularly in comparison to a ho-hum first quarter a year ago.

On average, first-quarter profits are expected to have risen 18.7 percent from a year earlier, according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by tracking firm Thompson First Call. That figure blends both reported and expected earnings.

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However, First Call's own analysts say earnings will likely show growth of at least 20 percent, and possibly 21 percent to 22 percent versus a year earlier, due to the tendency of corporations to play it cautious.

Next week brings reports from 179 S&P 500 companies.

Here are the ones that matter: Charles Schwab; Lucent; General Motors and Ford Motors; Coca-Cola; Pfizer and AIG; UPS; Viacom; Amazon; Microsoft.

And the ones that don't: Taser International; eBay; Starbucks.

Back in the bubblicious 90's, for one heady moment, discount brokerage Charles Schwab (SCH: Research, Estimates) had a bigger market cap than stuffy old Merrill Lynch (MER: Research, Estimates), as everybody and their grandmother rushed to jump on the dot.com bandwagon.

As investors painfully remember, that bandwagon ended up in a very deep ditch. Schwab's quarterly revenue dropped from $1.7 billion in the first quarter of 2000 to $900 million in the first quarter of 2003. Schwab's share price plunged from a peak of $65 in March 2000 to $6.56 three years later.

But then Schwab began an inexorable -- if not particularly smooth -- comeback, along with other discount and online brokers such as T. Rowe Price, Ameritrade (AMTD: Research, Estimates) and E*Trade (ET: Research, Estimates). It's no coincidence that the broad U.S. stock market came fighting back at the same time.

Now, here's the scary part: shares of many discount brokers are falling again. In the past three months, Schwab lost about 20 percent, E*Trade is down about 16 percent, and Ameritrade about 5 percent.

Investors have been punishing Schwab for planning what they consider frivolous expenditures, such as matching its employees' 401(k) contributions, giving out bigger bonuses and boosting its marketing budget.

But the main reason these firms have lost ground is the worry of many investors that the Fed is preparing to raise interest rates -- not usually a recipe for robust stock-buying. If that happens, then the quarter just ended may have been the start of a new decline for discount brokers -- and the broader market.

Why it Matters: If Schwab says it can overcome rising interest rates and its own spending plans and keep earnings growing, it could mean another stretch of good days for brokers and the stock market are on the way.

First Call forecast: 12 cents a share, versus 5 cents a year ago.

Nobody seems to be talking about Lucent going out of business anymore. Shares of the once troubled telecom equipment provider have surged 50 percent so far this year. And that's after a 160 percent jump in 2003.

While it's debatable whether Lucent deserves to have run up this much, one thing is certain: the company is finally starting to show some legitimate signs of business improvement.

Although sales are expected to dip 10 percent year-over-year in its fiscal second quarter, the company is expected to post a profit thanks to burgeoning demand for wireless gear.

Investors will be hoping that strength in that business will enable Lucent to reaffirm guidance for its next quarter as well: analysts expect Lucent to report a slight sequential increase in sales and 10.5 percent gain from a year ago.

Why it matters: Three of Lucent's largest customers, AT&T (T: Research, Estimates), BellSouth (BLS: Research, Estimates) and SBC Communications (SBC: up $0.30 to $24.47, Research, Estimates) all report their earnings this week. Another Lucent customer, Sprint, will also report its results Tuesday morning. Good news from Lucent could be viewed a sign that its core telecom customers are feeling comfortable enough to increase spending.

First Call forecast: 2 cents a share, versus a loss of 14 cents a year ago.

When your share price appreciates some 5,800 percent in a year, people tend to pay attention -- and boy, have they ever paid attention to Taser (TASR: Research, Estimates).

The company, which makes stun guns used by police, has been on a phenomenal ride, fueled in part by lingering worries about the threat of terrorism. Without asking for the honor, it became the poster child for a recent gold rush into homeland security-related stocks that reminds some analysts of the dangerous dot.com bubble of the late 1990's.

As evidence for their fear that investors are blindly rushing into these stocks without thinking about fundamentals, some analysts pointed to the fact that the stock jumped to an all-time high above $100 the day after a CBS Evening News report claimed that 40 people had died after being shocked by Taser guns. These analysts worry that the stock is hugely over-valued, that any stumble by the company will send shares tumbling, crushing investors who came into the stock when it was close to its peak.

Taser denies its guns killed any of those people. And the stock gain the day after the CBS report was probably helped along by Taser's announcement of a stock split.

What's more, some analysts think the backlash is unfair -- Taser makes an actual product, is fundamentally sound and has a lot of growth potential, they say. In fact, analysts, on average, think Taser's first-quarter earnings will be nearly seven times higher than a year ago, according to First Call, and they think earnings for the year will more than double those of 2003.

Why it doesn't matter: The war on terror will go on for years and with it untold numbers of new products and companies will come to life. But these companies will be widely varied, running the gamut from bomb sniffers to fingerprint readers to pepper spray makers.

Unless and until somebody comes up with a "Minority Report"-like technology that'll allow law enforcement to predict when terror attacks are going to happen, no one company is going to be the bellwether for the industry. Maybe some day, after a wave of consolidation, there will be a handful of dominating names in the industry. Until then, Taser is just a very expensive face in the crowd.

First Call forecast: 19 cents a share, versus 3 cents a year ago.

The nation's two biggest automakers have had somewhat different experiences driving down the same difficult road the last three month.

General Motors (GM: Research, Estimates), the world's largest automaker, has seen its market share of the core U.S. market edge higher to 26.8 percent, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period a year ago, as its U.S. sales in the quarter were up 5 percent. That put it back on track after its two years of market share gains ended with a slight decline in 2003.

Ford Motor (F: Research, Estimates), the nation's No. 2 automaker, again lost market share, falling to 19.1 percent, off 1.2 percentage points, as sales fell 2.1 percent. The declines come as Asian automakers continue to make inroads, picking up almost two percentage points in the quarter to now hold more than one-third of U.S. sales. Ford and GM have had to respond with more expensive sales incentives to support their sales. Those incentives keep the factories humming but dug into profits.

Why they matter: The U.S. auto industry, despite its woes, is still both a key building block of the economy, as well as an excellent indicator of consumer spending. Spending on motor vehicles and parts represented almost a quarter of retail sales last year.

GM shares are off about 15 percent since the start of the year, and the consensus 12-month target price of analysts only gets it back to where it was at the end of December. Ford shares are off 18 percent and actually trade above analysts' consensus target price. Both will have to show something to investors about a stronger profit outlook in this period if they are to attract investor interest.

First Call forecasts: GM, $1.79 a share, versus $1.81 a year ago; Ford, 44 cents a share, versus 45 cents a year ago.

Coke (KO: Research, Estimates)'s sure had some headaches of late. To start, there is the ongoing federal investigation into fraud charges, a spate of high-profile management departures -- including news that its CEO will resign at the end of the year -- and a recall and subsequent delay of the launch of Dasani water in Europe. Not to mention a lackluster stock price, sluggish juice sales, slower cola sales, pressure to compete in a low-carb world, and the ongoing threat of losing market share to arch rival PepsiCo (PEP: Research, Estimates).

Last quarter, the company reported flat earnings and higher revenue. A restructuring charge and higher expenses to reshuffle operations in North America and Germany weighed on results. But the weak U.S. dollar, a lower-than-forecast tax rate and a rise in unit volume in its North American and Japanese divisions helped.

Most indications point to a better first quarter for the company. The chief operating officer of Coke's North American unit recently said that the North American business has finally stabilized and is primed for growth. The company's biggest bottler, Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE: Research, Estimates), said its first-quarter looks strong due to improving trends. Brokerage Deutsche Bank recently reiterated a "buy" rating on the stock, saying that the company's investments in its brands and other marketing activities are helping, although its advertising and selling expenses have risen, too.

Coke is also one of those interest-rate snubbing corporations that can do well regardless of whether rates rise or fall.

Why it matters: The challenges outlined above are not exactly new, and so far, they haven't had a big impact on earnings. The first-quarter is expected to be good. It is what the company has to say about how these issues might impact the earnings throughout the rest of 2004 and beyond that will be significant.

Even with its company-specific issues, Coke remains the king of the multi-nationals and multi-nationals should have done well in the first quarter, thanks to the still weak dollar. If the dollar has helped Coke, that's good news for the other multi-nationals as wellt. Additionally, a good quarter for Coke is good for the economy, considering it is one of the most recognizable brand names in the world.

First Call forecast: 43 cents a share, versus 37 cents a year ago.

If stocks had theme songs, eBay (EBAY: Research, Estimates)'s would be "Nothing's Gonna Stop Us Now" by Starship, even though it's a lamentable piece of 80's cheese. (We like Grace Slick much better when she sings about wanting somebody to love and feeding your head. But anyway.)

Analysts expect the online auctioneer to report a 44 percent increase in earnings for the first quarter and a 50 percent jump in sales to $716 million. That's a lot of Pez dispensers. Sales are even expected to be higher than in the fourth quarter, which is usually the strongest for consumer-oriented companies like eBay.

The stock has continued to surge as well, up nearly 16 percent this year. Shares are not only trading near their 52-week high, they are almost at an all-time peak. That's truly amazing considering that most other dot-coms (even Yahoo! (YHOO: Research, Estimates) and Amazon.com (AMZN: Research, Estimates)) are still way below their March 2000 zeniths.

Why it doesn't matter: eBay is doing well? Yawn. It was profitable when it went public in 1998 and managed to post sales and earnings growth from 2000-2002...dark years for the overall economy. So if it has another great quarter, it's not a sign that the Internet or consumer is back: it's just further proof that eBay is one of the best run companies in America.

First Call forecast: 26 cents a share, versus 18 cents a year ago.

The coffee king is showing no signs of ceding its throne. Its market share dominance is ridiculous, and its well-positioned to thrive in a variety of interest rate environments.

Starbucks (SBUX: Research, Estimates) recently warned that the sales growth in the fiscal first quarter and February, in particular, was unsustainable. Management reiterated that investors should expect same-store sales growth in 2004 of more like 3 percent to 7 percent, rather than February's 13 percent growth, and overall sales of 20 percent, rather than February's 32 percent. But then March sales came out and topped estimates, with same-store sales rising 12 percent versus a year earlier and overall sales up 30 percent. That bodes well for the just-completed fiscal second-quarter.

Meanwhile, many analysts say they'll gladly take 2004 same-stores sales growth of 3 percent to 7 percent, and overall sales growth of 20 percent, as that still puts Starbucks in a better position than its competitors and a number of other retailers.

The company is not infallible. Analysts estimate that April sales should slow down from the seasonally strong February and March levels. In addition, fewer new stores are scheduled to open in 2004 than in 2003. Meanwhile the stock price is right near 52-week highs and some analysts are suggesting investors sell now.

Why it doesn't matter: What's going to threaten Starbucks' market dominance? Peet's? Timothy's? Please. Industry analysts estimate that Starbucks' stands at 23 times its next-biggest competitor, Caribou Coffee, a rare lead in the retail sector. Even when the record pace of growth the company has seen starts slowing down, it's still expected to grow earnings at levels that top rivals.

Besides, good economy, bad economy, something in between: caffeine fiends need their Java and they're going to get it regardless of where interest rates are and what the labor market is doing. And the stores are not just for caffeine fiends, with all kinds of non-caffeinated drinks, as well as food products available, too.

First Call forecast: 17 cents a share, versus 13 cents a year ago.

These two very different companies have at least two things in common: on April 8 they both joined the Dow industrials and they're both expected to report strong earnings next week. Along with fellow new addition Verizon (VZ: Research, Estimates), the Dow's new kids on the block will want to make a good first impression. While they were already big in their respective sectors, now their exposure has risen.

While the pharmaceutical sector overall is expected to have erratic, and often company-specific earnings in the first-quarter, No. 1 drugmaker Pfizer (PFE: Research, Estimates) is expected to post impressive sales and earnings and to offer a fairly upbeat forecast, thanks in part to blockbuster drugs like Lipitor and Viagra. The company is not as vulnerable to the same kind of major patent expirations that can hurt profits at smaller rivals and has shown long-term, steady earnings growth. Most analysts who cover the stock rate it highest in the sector, which is expected to benefit from a faster-growing economy.

Like the rest of the stock market, American International Group (AIG: Research, Estimates) suffered through a tough 2001 and 2002. This period culminated with the insurance leader taking a $2.8 billion pre-tax charge in the fourth quarter of 2002 to increase loss reserves of its property and casualty insurance operations, a move that sent its stock reeling. But it snapped back in 2003, reporting a record jump in net income, and its fourth-quarter results were snazzy, due to a surge in its general insurance and life insurance segments. AIG's other two units -- retirement services and asset management, and financial services operations -- also grew in the quarter, although the latter grew the least of the four units, due to weakness in its airplane leasing unit.

However, recently, International Lease Finance Corporation -- AIG's airplane leasing unit -- issued a bullish forecast for the first quarter, saying a rebound in the sector is brewing. In addition, the boom in AIG's other segments is expected to continue in the first quarter and the next few years. In particular, the firm's continued investment in Asian markets should fuel expansion, the company's management said recently. One negative to look out for in the report is how the company plans to adjust for the impact of rising interest rates on its fixed-annuity sales, which have thrived in the low interest rate environment.

Why they matter: Both companies are leaders in their sectors, and what they say will have implications for smaller rivals. A rising interest rate environment should help pharmaceuticals, but a change in U.S. political leadership as a result of the elections in November would hurt the sector, as it might mean Medicare and other prescription-drug rules might be rewritten. Pfizer's statement may clarify some of these issues. As for AIG, fixed-annuity sales are bound to dip when rates rise, but investment income on its cash flow will gain along with rates. Additionally, due to the company's global reach and the span of its business, its results and forecast will say a great deal about the corporate profit recovery.

Strong results and forecasts from these companies would be a nice psychological boost for the stock market, particularly as their stocks haven't done much since joining the Dow industrials.

First Call forecasts: Pfizer, 51 cents a share, versus 45 cents a year ago; AIG, $1.06 per share, versus 90 cents a year ago.

UPS (UPS: Research, Estimates) started the year delivering something new - gains in its stock price to shareholders. The Stock reached highs in late December not seen since the first days after its initial public offering in the go-go days of November 1999, when it was seen as a large cap, blue chip Internet retailing play, back when that was considered a good thing.

This time around, the stock gains were achieved the old-fashioned way: solid but not spectacular earnings performance with double-digit earnings gains each of the last three quarters that each time topped the consensus forecast by a penny or two. UPS is expected to post solid earnings growth again, with the fastest growth in its non-parcel business, such as logistics and the recently rebranded UPS Stores.

Although the stock is about 5 percent off of where it ended last year, as fuel prices rose. But analysts are still relatively bullish on the UPS - their consensus target price would put it at a record $78, or about 10 percent above current levels.

Why it matters: With a customer base that includes many of the nation's leading retailers and manufacturers, UPS is a good bellwether of the state of the recovery in the U.S. economy. An estimated 6 percent of the nation's gross domestic product moves on its trucks and planes at some point. It is by far the largest transportation company, with more than twice the combined revenue of the nation's 10 largest passenger airlines.

First Call forecast: 61 cents a share, versus 52 cents a year ago.

Viacom (VIA.B: Research, Estimates) had quite a quarter, thanks in part to the exposed right breast of Janet Jackson at the Super Bowl half-time show. The stunt drove the Federal Communications Commission to the fainting couch, where it remains, contemplating a multi-million-dollar fine.

Word on that fine is yet to be handed down, but the FCC has already put a small ding into Viacom's first quarter results by cracking down on shock jock Howard Stern's radio show. The agency's indecency crackdown prompted No .1 radio broadcaster Clear Channel Communications (CCU: Research, Estimates) to drop the show. Viacom's Infinity Broadcasting unit may face its own fines soon as well. The real threat to results will come if Congress, as expected, dramatically raises the maximum fine the FCC can impose.

Viacom's CBS television network briefly disappeared in March from the 9 million homes using EchoStar's Dish satellite TV service as the two companies fought over the rates Viacom could get for its lucrative cable networks. Viacom ended up getting some, but not all it was seeking as cable and satellite operators have become more successful in saying 'no' to increases sought by cable networks.

Even with all these issues in the quarter, Viacom had more victories than losses. Ad rates are up, CBS is again the No. 1 network and it got to carry the Super Bowl in February.

Why it matters: Viacom, which counts MTV, Nickelodeon and Paramount Pictures among its many components, will be the first big media company to report, and the industry will be listening closely to what it has to say about the health of the advertising market. If Viacom says ad revenue is still gathering steam, then other media companies can breathe a sigh of relief. What's more, that could be a sign that advertisers are betting on continuing growth in consumer spending, which would be good news for the broader economy.

First Call forecast: 30 cents a share, versus 26 cents a year ago.

Wall Street is predicting another stellar quarter for Amazon.com (AMZN: Research, Estimates). Consensus estimates are for a 34 percent jump in sales and 90 percent increase in earnings. Yup. Earnings.

Yet, shares of Amazon are down more than 10 percent year-to-date. It looks like investors are finally starting to ask tough questions about Amazon, namely, if it looks like a retailer and acts like a retailer, shouldn't it be valued like a retailer? Amazon trades at 48 times 2004 earnings estimates, twice the multiple of retail king Wal-Mart Stores.

Investors might also be starting to worry about the possibility of tougher online competition in the near future from the likes of Yahoo! and Google. Yahoo! bought a European comparison shopping site called Kelkoo last month and Google unveiled its own shopping site, Froogle.

Why it matters: Unlike eBay, Amazon's results will say something about broad consumer spending trends. Amazon's sales patterns are more like a traditional retailer: sales tail off a bit in the first quarter following the holiday season. So if Amazon beats Wall Street's $1.45 billion revenue forecast by a healthy amount, that could be a sign that the consumer is continuing to shop until they drop...or click until they're sick, if you will.

First Call forecast: 19 cents a share, versus 10 cents a year ago.

Where to begin? The continued security holes in Windows? The EU antitrust fine and sanctions? How about the newfound kinship with former Microsoft (MSFT: Research, Estimates) hater Sun Microsystems (SUNW: Research, Estimates)?

Microsoft was in the headlines a lot between January and early April. But there's one headline investors still are waiting to see. It goes something like this: Microsoft finally unveils a plan for its massive cash hoard.

Chief financial officer John Connors told investors at a conference in February that Microsoft will tell the Street what it intends to do with the aforementioned hoard, which stood at $52.8 billion as of the end of December, before its next analyst meeting in July.

Investors have to be hoping that Microsoft, in addition to maybe boosting its dividend or buying back shares, will use some of the cash to invest in higher growth areas. Wall Street is concerned about slowing growth prospects for the software giant...particularly since Microsoft's long-awaited Windows update, Longhorn, is still several years away.

Why it matters: As goes Microsoft, so goes the PC sector. Despite all the hype about Linux, which is a serious long-term threat, most PCs still run on Windows. A decent pickup in sales growth for Microsoft could mean that businesses are replacing their old computers and servers. And that would be good news for large cap techs like IBM, Dell, Hewlett-Packard and Intel, not to mention most software companies as well.

First Call forecast: 29 cents a share, versus 27 cents a share a year ago.