NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Boy, oh, boy, earnings have been good so far. And they're expected to stay that way for the duration of the reporting period.
Due to the slew of better-than-expected results, Thomson First Call research analysts now expect first-quarter earnings to rise at least 25 percent from a year earlier. That's up from less than 20 percent just before the reporting season started.
And finally, the stock market seems to be responding, jumping ahead this week on the earnings following several weeks of tentative trading as investors fretted about the likelihood of rising interest rates.
These concerns haven't disappeared, but the stock market seems to have made peace with them for the time being, analysts say. But April is a fickle month, weather wise and stock market wise, so whether the stock markets will continue focusing on the strong earnings in the weeks ahead is unclear.
However, should they opt to remain glued to earnings, next week brings a slew of heavyweight company reports, many of which will provide hints about inflationary trends going forward, including stocks in the steel, oil, chemical, restaurant and hotel sectors, as well as a few big technology and media companies.
Here's a look at the earnings that matter: DuPont; BP and Exxon Mobil; U.S. Steel and International Steel Group; Flextronics; McDonald's; Monster Worldwide; Comcast; Hilton Hotels and Host Marriott; Time Warner.
And one that doesn't: Halliburton.
DuPont, Tuesday a.m.
An improving economy and a recovery in chemical demand after a five-year slump are among the factors signaling strong earnings for the chemical sector in the first quarter and beyond, good news for Dow component and chemical bellwether DuPont, and its rivals.
DuPont (DD: Research, Estimates), Eastman Chemical (EMN: Research, Estimates), Georgia Gulf (GGC: Research, Estimates) and Sherwin-Williams (SHW: Research, Estimates) all raised their first-quarter earnings forecasts in recent weeks. And the picture is expected to get brighter as the year unfolds.
The recovering global economy is bound to boost chemical volume growth, analysts said. The chemical industry has already seen signs of this with chemical demand increasing from chipmakers, construction firms and automakers as they boost production. Analysts say chemical firms likely did well in the first quarter, with chemical margins and exports accelerating, even as the impact of high energy prices continued to weigh. Higher commodity prices have helped the agricultural side of the business at DuPont, due to a rise in corn and soybean prices.
However, the negative impact of higher raw material costs has caused the company to make recent changes, including cutting six percent of its workforce as part of a $900 million a year cost-cutting initiative announced in the fourth-quarter of 2003. The layoffs will result in a one-time charge in the second quarter, the company said, mostly in the form of severance payments. Also in the fourth quarter, DuPont opted to sell its clothing and carpet fiber business to a private company, so as to focus more on higher-growth units.
DuPont's main rival, Dow Chemical (DOW: Research, Estimates), reports Thursday morning and is expected to have earned 42 cents a share, versus 9 cents a year earlier.
Why it matters: Strong results from DuPont would confirm a turnaround in industrial demand and that the economic recovery is indeed heating up.
What the company has to say about its outlook for raw material costs will provide insight into where commodity prices are headed over the next few quarters, relevant to the broader market.
First Call forecast: 95 cents a share, versus 61 cents a year ago.
BP, Tuesday a.m.; Exxon Mobil, Thursday a.m.
High oil prices are a headache to just about everybody – businesses, consumers, you name it – but they're a boon to oil companies.
Crude oil prices have risen more than 20 percent in the past year and most of the big oil companies' stocks have done as well or better. Shares of BP (BP: Research, Estimates), ConocoPhillips (COP: Research, Estimates) and ChevronTexaco (CVX: Research, Estimates) are all up more than 30 percent, while Exxon Mobil (XOM: Research, Estimates) has gained more than 20 percent.
Royal Dutch (RD: Research, Estimates) probably would have done well, too, but it's suffered in recent months from problems with accounting for its oil reserves. As a result, its 52-week gain is only about 16 percent – an underperformance against the S&P 500 in the same period. It is expected to earn $1.06 per share versus $1.13 a year ago, when it reports Thursday a.m..
In any event, despite their gains, shares of all of these companies are noticeably cheap. The biggest price/earnings ratio among them is BP's, at 19. The smallest is ConocoPhillips', at 11. Four of the five P/E multiples are near their historic lows, while Exxon Mobil's P/E is near its historic average.
Most are expected to report that their first-quarter earnings fell short of those in the quarter a year ago. And people continually call for a drop in oil prices, saying $37 for a barrel of oil – roughly the price in New York this week – is unsustainable.
But that's no sure thing. OPEC has promised to cut production this spring, which will boost prices, and some analysts expect global oil demand to stay high for several months.
The week brings a number of oil company earnings. ConocoPhillips reports Wednesday morning and is expected to have earned $1.98 per share, versus $1.86 a year ago. ChevronTexaco is due Friday morning and is expected to have earned $2.01 per share, versus $2.03 a year ago.
Why they matter: Their outlook for oil prices in the coming year should be very interesting to those of us who use petroleum-based products – which is to say, everybody.
First Call forecasts: BP: $1.03 a share versus $1 a year ago; Exxon Mobil: 74 cents a share, versus 71 a year ago.
U.S. Steel, Tuesday a.m.; International Steel Group, Wednesday a.m.
These should be some of the worst of times for U.S. steelmakers, which lost trade barriers last year following a decision from the World Trade Organization. Instead they have seen some of the best of times in recent memory, as rising demand and prices have helped turn losses into profits and lifted their share prices.
Much of the improvement in steel is seen as a result of rising steel scrap prices, due at least partly to strong demand from overseas markets, especially China. That in turn has lifted the prices charged by the so-called mini-mills, such as Nucor (NUE: Research, Estimates). The mini-mills turn scrap directly into steel. The old-line "integrated" steelmakers, such as U.S. Steel (X: Research, Estimates) and ISG (ISG: Research, Estimates), make steel from raw materials such as iron ore. Nucor reported better than expected results and raised its second quarter guidance on April 22.
The integrated steelmakers have benefited from the recent run up in scrap prices as well, as they finally have a cost-advantage on the traditionally lower-cost mini-mills, along with a better environment to win pricing increases. They also have some high-end products where their quality can still beat the scrap-based mini-mills.
Why they matter: The old-line steel companies still produce a basic component of many key durable goods, such as autos and appliances. Manufacturing has seen signs of a strong rebound in the last few months, and even continued rising prices of a raw material such as steel would be unlikely to choke off demand from those customers.
These companies still produce about half the nation's steel. The industry has also seen major consolidation in recent years. U.S. Steel, which purchased National Steel in 2003, is the largest producer at the moment. But International Steel Group, formed from the purchase of a number of bankrupt steelmakers including LTV Steel and Bethlehem Steel, is close behind. When it closes its purchase of Weirton Steel later this year, it could again be the largest domestic steelmaker.
First Call forecast: US Steel: 40 cents a share, versus a loss of 19 cents a year ago; ISG: 51 cents a share, versus 28 cents in the fourth quarter, its first as a public company. The company lost 31 cents a share for the full-year 2003.
Flextronics, Tuesday p.m.
Contract manufacturers, companies that make products for big brand name technology firms, don't tend to get a lot of attention from the average investor. But that doesn't lessen their importance in the tech food chain.
Flextronics (FLEX: Research, Estimates), one of the largest contract manufacturers, should shed some light on how the broad recovery in tech is panning out when it reports its latest results.
That's because the company makes gadgets ranging from computers for Dell (DELL: Research, Estimates) and Microsoft (MSFT: Research, Estimates)'s Xbox gaming console to cell phones for Motorola (MOT: Research, Estimates) and Sony Ericsson. Other top customers are Hewlett-Packard (HPQ: Research, Estimates), Siemens and Nortel Networks (NT: Research, Estimates).
Why it matters: If Flextronics has a strong quarter, it's a sign that its impressive list of big tech clients must be looking to sell more stuff. That would obviously be a welcome development, particularly since it would be further confirmation of positive sales news from Motorola and Dell.
First Call forecast: 11 cents a share, versus 5 cents a year ago.
McDonald's, Tuesday p.m.
The death of CEO and chairman Jim Cantalupo from a sudden heart attack this week creates uncertainty about the company's future, even as chief operating officer -- and long-expected successor -- Jamie Bell was named to replace him as chief executive.
Widely credited with reviving McDonald's (MCD: Research, Estimates) since he took over at the end of 2002, Cantalupo was instrumental in cutting capital spending, increasing McDonald's dividend and slowing the opening of new stores. He also was behind expanding McDonald's menu to include more salads and other healthy alternatives, as well as eliminating "super size" fries and sodas, helping the chain to better compete in a more health-focused era. While Bell is not expected to halt these initiatives, the company's conference call will certainly need to address the McDonald's future without Cantalupo.
Analyst projections for the company's first quarter are generally quite bullish. The weak U.S. dollar should have benefited the company's overseas earnings. J.P. Morgan recently reiterated its "overweight" rating on the stock and Prudential issued a note saying that the first-quarter should be one of the strongest for the restaurant sector this year. The firm expects average year-over-year earnings growth for the sector of 22.2 percent in 2004 versus growth of 2.6 percent in 2003. The question is, what will McDonald's executives say about the quarters ahead.
And not everyone is so sanguine about the company's first quarter either. Last week, McDonald's boosted its first-quarter earnings forecast but also reported same-store sales in the U.S. and Europe that missed expectations. In response, CIBC World Markets downgraded the fast-food behemoth to "sector performer" from "sector outperformer."
Why it matters: No matter how competent the replacement team is, Cantalupo's death is quite a blow to a company he was credited with revitalizing, and was expected to continue leading for at least another 2 to 4 years. Management needs to reassure investors in the conference call.
Despite improvements, considerable challenges remain for the company and the fast-food industry. McDonald's still has a long way to go to address complaints about the unhealthiness of its menu options. Additionally, recent quarters have been strong, particularly due to easy comparisons from a year earlier, but comparisons get much tougher starting in the second quarter. Higher commodity costs, particularly food prices, not to mention a recovery in the dollar, all could eat into its profits.
First Call forecast: 40 cents a share, up from 29 cents a year ago.
Monster Worldwide, Tuesday p.m.
Sure, people still look through the Help Wanted ads of their local newspapers (how quaint) for work. But these days, online recruiting sites are all the rage. Monster Worldwide (MNST: Research, Estimates)'s Monster.com is one of the best known.
And in case you hadn't noticed, jobs, or the relative lack of them, have been the business story of the year. But after March's strong employment report, there have been increased hopes that the job market is at long last improving.
So when Monster reports, investors will be looking for broad clues about what's going on in the labor market. Are job seekers posting more resumes? Are employers listing more openings?
Shares of Monster have surged nearly 30 percent this year on the expectation that the job market has bottomed.
Why it matters: If Monster reports better than expected results, then that could be further evidence of an end to the job drought.
First Call forecast: 10 cents a share, versus 9 cents a year ago.
Comcast, Wednesday a.m.
Will Comcast (CMCSA: Research, Estimates) drop its bid for Walt Disney (DIS: Research, Estimates)? That will be the question on most investors' minds when the cable giant reports its earnings.
Comcast made a bold play for Disney in February, and even though the House of Mouse has continued to struggle, there is a growing sense that Comcast won't be able to pull off a deal.
The cable company has shown financial discipline in the past, choosing to not overpay for rival cable firm MediaOne a few years ago...only to scoop up all the cable assets of AT&T (T: Research, Estimates), which outbid Comcast for MediaOne in 2002. So it would not be a huge surprise if Comcast walked away from the Disney deal.
Why it matters: If Comcast puts an end to the Disney saga, investors might be able to focus on what's going right at the nation's largest cable company and the sector at large. Comcast and other cable firms should continue to post healthy subscriber gains thanks to new services like digital cable, cable modems, personal video recorders and Internet phone calling plans. This is having an impact on traditional telecom companies.
First Call forecast: 7 cents a share, versus a loss of 13 cents a year ago.
Halliburton, Wednesday a.m.
There are few more interesting companies right now than Halliburton (HAL: Research, Estimates), the world's biggest oilfield services firm.
Even if you've been living in a cave in Afghanistan for several years – like Osama bin Laden, who mentioned the company by name in his latest tape – you probably know Halliburton used to be run by Vice President Dick Cheney, who left the company before the 2000 election.
Cheney says he has no interest in the firm, but he has some Halliburton stock held in trust, and he has received a fixed amount of deferred compensation from the company since he left.
Those ties, however tenuous, have encouraged Democrats to accuse the Bush administration of favoritism every time it gives a big contract to Halliburton -- and its Kellogg Brown & Root unit has certainly gotten some high-profile contracts, worth billions of dollars, in recent years, providing support for U.S. military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq.
KBR's performance under those contracts has come under scrutiny, as well. The company has been accused of charging the government too much for gasoline and troop meals. Halliburton has denied any wrongdoing, and government investigations continue.
The situation in Iraq has been especially painful for Halliburton in recent months, as about 30 of its employees have died in the continuing violence there. A recent Wall Street Journal report suggested "scores" of the company's employees in Iraq have quit, though about 24,000 remain, making it the biggest contractor in the country.
Why it doesn't matter: Though its oilfield service business could benefit from lingering high oil prices, Halliburton is such a unique company that its performance this year may not tell us much about the broader economy or even about particular sectors, such as energy and construction. That doesn't mean it won't continue to be a riveting story.
First Call forecast: 31 cents a share, versus 12 cents a year ago.
Hilton Hotels, Host Marriott, both Wednesday a.m.
As the economy has improved, so has demand for hotels, as tourists have been more willing to travel and businesses have been more willing to send executives off to meetings and conventions.
Like their racier cousins in the casino industry, some hotel stocks have enjoyed a robust run-up in the past year, with Hilton (HLT: Research, Estimates) up 28 percent and Host Marriott (HMT: Research, Estimates) up 47 percent in the past year.
Valuations have gotten awfully rich, too, with P/E multiples for both nearing historic highs.
But while casino stocks have few naysayers, hotel stocks are looked at with a little more skepticism, in part because in the fourth quarter some hotel operators offered cautious guidance for the first quarter. Most analysts expect these chains to post earnings that will be only slightly improved from a year ago, when the hotel business was weakened during the run-up to the Iraq war.
Investors have been braced for a so-so quarter this time around, but they may not tolerate further expressions of caution.
The good news is that Smith Travel Research said on Wednesday that weekly room revenue jumped 20 percent last week, a bullish sign.
Why they matter: If hotel operators see tourist and convention business slowing down, that may not bode well for broader consumer and business spending habits this year.
First Call forecast: Hilton: 6 cents a share, versus 4 cents a year ago; Host Marriott: 14 cents a share, versus 15 cents a year ago.
Time Warner, Wednesday p.m.
The nation's largest media conglomerate cut its debt and improved its outlook during the last year.
One of its movies, "The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King," became only the second billion-dollar box office hit ever in the first quarter. And the advertising outlook for the industry has improved - No. 3 media company Viacom (VIA.B: Research, Estimates) reported sharply improved television ad sales on April 22, leading some analysts to look for better than expected gains at Time Warner (TWX: Research, Estimates).
The stock's price has slipped slightly from year-end 2003 levels, although it is up by more than a third from where it was a year-ago. Earnings, despite the improved environment for advertising, are forecast to remain flat compared with the first quarter of 2003. Revenues are forecast to be off 5 percent.
While the pressure to shed units to cut debt has ended, the company, whose holdings include CNN/Money, still has to answer federal investigators' questions about the accounting at its America Online unit. That probe is delaying a public offering of its cable television unit. If Time Warner gets this going, it plans to use the shares in Time Warner Cable as a currency to buy smaller cable operators.
Questions about the AOL unit haven't been completely answered - the world's largest Internet service provider continues to lose customers to both lower-priced dial-up services, as well as the high-speed Internet offerings from the nation's cable and telephone companies. There have been reports, which a company spokesman did not deny, that Time Warner's investment bankers have looked at the possible sale of AOL.
Why it matters: Even with some of the divestitures of the last year, such as Warner Music and Comedy Central, the company is still a leader in many of the fields in which it competes.
It is the nation's No. 2 cable operator. Several of its cable networks, including TNT, TBS and CNN, are among the most widely distributed networks in the cable industry, drawing a premium from cable operators and advertisers compared to competitors. Many of its magazines, including Time, People and Sports Illustrated are circulation and ad leaders in their sectors as well. An improved advertising outlook suggests U.S. businesses gearing up to sell to consumers in an improving economy.
Its movie studios - Warner Bros. and New Line -- are doing very well in both box office and DVD sales, although they will be hard pressed to top last year's results. And AOL, despite its well-documented problems, has seen some signs of improvement itself, including improved revenue from advertising after a steep decline lasting several years.
First Call forecast: 9 cents a share, versus 9 cents a year earlier.
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