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4 earnings reports that matter
The 1Q earnings reporting period has been terrific. Too bad the stock market hasn't noticed.
May 7, 2004: 12:33 PM EDT
By Paul La Monica and Alexandra Twin, CNN/Money staff writers

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - First-quarter earnings have been great, but you wouldn't know it from the stock market, which of late has focused on anything but good news.

Worries about when interest rates will rise and how the rates will affect the economy, corporate profits and stock prices have been front and center in the last few weeks.

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When investors weren't focusing on rates, they were noting that oil prices are hovering near 13-year highs. And if that failed to preoccupy, there were daily reports from Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East to cause concern.

But underneath all the negativity, first-quarter earnings have been impressive. With just a few members of the S&P 500 left to report, (including some big names in the week ahead) earnings are forecast to have risen about 27 percent from a year earlier, while revenue is likely to have gained 11 percent from last year, according to First Call forecasts.

The percentage of companies that have beat expectations this quarter, and the amount by which they beat, has also risen. The individual sectors with the largest number of companies topping estimates were materials, cyclicals and financials.

The second quarter has been looking better, too. Analysts surveyed by First Call now expect second-quarter earnings to grow 16.8 percent from a year earlier, versus estimates of 14.9 percent on April 1.

Let's see if the stock market notices.

Earnings in this report: Cisco Systems, Walt Disney, Wal-Mart Stores, Dell.

Cisco Systems, Tuesday p.m.

How strong is the corporate rebound in tech spending? Is it sustainable? Wall Street will be looking for answers to these key questions from Cisco (CSCO: Research, Estimates) CEO John Chambers.

Throughout last year, Chambers (who has turned into the tech equivalent of Alan Greenspan) continually evoked the Missouri state motto, saying that it was a "show-me economy." He also used the word "fragile" frequently to describe the recovery.

However, Chambers was far more optimistic in February after Cisco reported better than expected sales and earnings for its fiscal second quarter.

But then a funny thing happened. Rival Foundry Networks (FDRY: Research, Estimates) reported a clunker of a first quarter last month, missing sales and earnings estimates. What's more, investors were unimpressed by strong results from another Cisco competitor, Juniper Networks (JNPR: Research, Estimates).

That's led to some concerns about whether big businesses are really spending as much on things like routers, switches and other types of networking equipment as investors had hoped. Cisco could soothe these fears by beating estimates and raising guidance.

Why it matters: Cisco has a tiny exposure to the consumer electronics market so it is viewed as one of the main proxies for corporate tech spending. A bullish outlook from Cisco could suggest that tech sales and earnings growth are not peaking just yet. And that could provide some juice for a tech rally currently stuck in neutral.

First Call forecast: 18 cents a share, versus 15 cents a year ago.

Walt Disney, Wednesday p.m.

Plenty of shareholders have gotten bored with the slow growth of Walt Disney (DIS: Research, Estimates)'s stock price, earnings and dividend over the last few years, but they've got to be at least relieved, if not pleased, with how the company performed in the first quarter. They've got to be particularly relieved considering that Disney has been caught up in a corporate version of Mr. Toad's Wild Ride.

Let's recap some of the first-quarter highlights. Disney lost its deal with Pixar (PIXR: Research, Estimates), its co-partner in some of its biggest recent animated films, including "Finding Nemo." Much-maligned CEO Michael Eisner lost his chairman title following a very public campaign for his removal by two former Disney board members. Comcast tried to buy the company for $48 billion before dropping its offer.

That's not all. The struggling ABC television unit failed to make any headway, so Disney management replaced the network heads just before it was slated to unveil its fall schedule to advertisers. Most recently, the company attempted to block a controversial documentary set to be released by its Miramax subsidiary.

Clearly, these issues will continue to challenge Disney beyond the first quarter. What's been working in its favor and should continue to do so is the strength of the U.S. economy and the resilience of the consumer, key since its biggest units are theme parks, film and broadcasting divisions.

Sure, the stock has gone nowhere in the first quarter, following the same tumultuous round trip as the broader market this year. But that still puts it where it ended last year, up 43 percent, as part of the broader recovery. First-quarter earnings are expected nearly to double from a year earlier, and management has said it expects earnings growth from continuing operations of 40 percent in 2004.

Why it matters: Just about everything you need to know about consumer sentiment, you can learn from Disney. Behold the clues about the consumer in Disney's theme park attendance, film revenue and advertising sales at its television stations.

First Call forecast: 21 cents per share, versus 11 cents a year ago.

Wal-Mart Stores, Thursday a.m.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT: Research, Estimates), and a number of its smaller competitors, likely reported strong sales and earnings in the first quarter. Big tax refunds, improved economic news and consumer confidence, and a renewed demand for fashion all likely helped the sector. So did low interest rates.

Sales at stores open a year or more were particularly strong in February and March at Wal-Mart, the world's leading retailer. During the first quarter, the company also boosted its annual dividend, announced a quarterly dividend and officially launched its own music downloading service. The company also saw strong sales at its non-U.S. stores and made some well-received acquisitions in Japan and Brazil, extending its international hold.

But analysts are saying that the party likely peaked for 2004, with the second half expected to be weaker for retailers, due to seasonal tendencies, as well as the impact of rising interest rates, higher gas prices, and the potential slowdown in consumer confidence that may follow.

Wal-Mart has said that it expects to see only modest year-over-year growth this year. Additionally, the company reported April same-store sales of 4.4 percent, at the low end of its previous forecast for growth of four percent to six percent, a trend consistent with other retailers in the month.

In terms of issues specific only to Wal-Mart, rather than the broader sector, the company was dealt a recent blow when voters in a California suburb knocked down a ballot measure that would have allowed the retailer to build one of its supercenters, speaking to some of the challenges Wal-Mart faces as it attempts to keep expanding.

Why it matters: As the largest retailer in the world, the company is a barometer -- of the health of the retail sector and the health of consumer spending.

First Call forecast: 49 cents a share, versus 41 cents a year ago.

Dell, Thursday p.m.

The battle for the global market share lead in the personal computer business has been a thrilling back and forth race for the past year. Dell (DELL: Research, Estimates) reclaimed the top spot from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ: Research, Estimates) in the fourth quarter.

But at what price? Margins are already notoriously matchstick-thin in the PC business. So investors will be looking for signs that Dell did not have to cut prices too aggressively in order to win market share. This hasn't been a problem in the past but HP is not the only computer company making waves.

Gateway (GTW: Research, Estimates) is a stronger competitor by virtue of its acquisition of low cost PC maker eMachines. And a company from Armonk, N.Y. called IBM (IBM: Research, Estimates) has been selling notebooks like hotcakes.

Wall Street will be checking out Dell's numbers for any signs of slowing sales growth in PCs after an extremely strong second half of 2003 and first quarter of this year. Investors will also be interested in what's going on with Dell's server and storage sales as well, since big businesses are the primary customers for these products.

Why it matters: For Dell's fiscal first quarter, analysts are predicting a slight decline in sales from the fourth quarter, which is typically Dell's strongest thanks to holiday shopping and corporate year-end budget flushes.

But if Dell beats the first quarter forecasts and gives strong second quarter guidance, it could be a sign that demand for PCs and servers is still robust and that the usual seasonal slowdown may not be so drastic. That would obviously be good news for HP, which will report its earnings on May 18, as well as for chip companies like Intel (INTC: Research, Estimates) and software companies like Microsoft (MSFT: Research, Estimates) that benefit from increased demand for computers.

First Call forecast: 28 cents a share, versus 23 cents a year ago.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.