NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -
Wall Street has had a love-hate relationship with Hewlett-Packard this year. After being up as much as 14 percent for the month in late January, the stock is now down more than 15 percent.
As the company gets set to report fiscal second-quarter results Tuesday, hopes that HP's 2002 merger with Compaq was finally paying off have turned into concerns about whether HP can keep making money in all of its major businesses.
Analysts are expecting the Dow component to post earnings of 34 cents a share, up from 29 cents a year ago. Sales are forecast at $19.3 billion, a 7.4 percent increase from a year ago.
But Wall Street will quickly look past these numbers and closely dissect the results of HP's individual business lines.
Third time a charm?
For the past two quarters, the company has posted an operating profit in all four of its major divisions -- personal systems (which includes personal computers and handheld devices); enterprise systems (servers, storage and software for corporate customers); printing and imaging; and services.
HP has cited those results as evidence that the Compaq deal has been a success. But some on Wall Street are worried that HP (HPQ: Research, Estimates) won't be able to pull of this feat for a third straight quarter.
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| | Division | | 4Q Op. Profit ($ mill) | | 1Q Op. Profit ($ mill) | | Personal Systems | 22 | 62 | | Enterprise Systems | 109 | 108 | | Printing and Imaging | 1015 | 968 | | Services | 391 | 258 |
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The personal-systems business looks particularly vulnerable. That division posted a small operating profit in the first quarter. But market share figures released in mid-April showed that Dell retook the PC market share lead in the calendar first quarter. (HP had wrested the lead from Dell in the fourth quarter.)
That has led to fears that HP may aggressively cut prices (sacrificing profits in the process) to win back share. Dell (DELL: Research, Estimates) didn't help matters last week when it reported lower than expected profit margins due to higher memory chip costs, a factor that could also hurt HP.
"HP has a significant weight around its neck with its PC business," said Mark Stahlman, an analyst with Caris & Co. "It cannot match Dell's business model."
The company also is beginning to face tougher competition in the server business from Dell, as well as sustained pressure from market share leader IBM (IBM: Research, Estimates).
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Although the enterprise segment should see an improvement in sales as corporate demand for tech picks up, there are questions about how profitable the business will be this quarter, given the competitive environment.
"HP's enterprise business continues to struggle as it continues to lose share to Dell and a tiny bit to IBM," said Michael Shulman, director of research with ChangeWave Research. "The overall enterprise business has stabilized but I don't think people will like what HP has to show with the profit numbers."
Printing and services still seen as strengths
But one fund manager who owns HP said he could live with operating losses in the PC and enterprise divisions as long as the company can demonstrate healthy sales growth.
"I would be concerned, but not especially disappointed, if the PC or enterprise divisions slipped back into the red," said Barry Randall, manager of the First American Technology fund, which owns HP. "As part of a long-term strategy, gaining market share is a worthy goal."
Figures are for the latest reported quarter | Source: Company reports |
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In addition, Randall said that HP's decision to emphasize services, a route that IBM has taken during the past few years, is good for profitability. Services accounted for 16 percent of HP's total sales in its fiscal first quarter and nearly 20 percent of operating income.
Still, one big problem facing HP is that the only area where Wall Street truly believes HP is a leader is in printing, which accounted for 70 percent of HP's overall operating profit in the fiscal first quarter. Dell is more profitable in hardware and IBM still dwarfs HP in services.
And given all the juggling HP has to do with its other three divisions, there are some concerns that rivals such as number two printer firm Lexmark (LXK: Research, Estimates) and Dell, which is partnering with Lexmark, could start to eat into the profits in this business as well.
"The issue for HP is that it's got to be continuing to grow consulting services at the same time it's trying to recapture strength in hardware and maintain strength in printers. That's a lot of work," said Michael Kelly, chief executive officer of Techtel, a technology market research firm.
To silence its critics, HP might need to raise guidance for the fiscal third quarter, particularly on the sales side, to prove that it too is taking part in a tech recovery. Analysts are currently expecting revenues of $18.7 billion, up 8 percent from a year ago but down 3 percent sequentially.
By way of comparison, Dell and IBM are expected to report sequential increases in sales for their fiscal second quarters.
"HP has to execute to maintain credibility and it's an open question if the company can deliver to shareholders," Shulman said.
Shulman owns shares of Dell but his firm does not have any investment banking relationships with companies mentioned in this piece. Other analysts mentioned do not own shares of companies mentioned and their firms have no investment banking ties to the companies.
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