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Markets & Stocks
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Turn off the oil spigot?
Oil prices are at record-high levels. But can oil stocks keep gushing?
October 25, 2004: 4:21 PM EDT
By Paul R. La Monica, CNN/Money senior writer

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The company sells the world's most sought-after commodity, and as CNNfn's Chris Huntington reports, the oil giant's stock is near an all-time high.

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NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Still looking for a really terrifying Halloween costume idea? Here's a thought. Just wear a barrel with a big number $55 on it.

Aggghhhhhh! At the very least, you'd be guaranteed to scare the heck out of Wall Street.

Rising oil prices have rocked the broader market in recent weeks. But there's one sector that has held up extremely well lately: energy.

The Amex Oil Index, which consists of 13 major oil exploration and production companies, is trading just below its 52-week high. The index is up 13 percent since the price of crude started to approach $50 in mid-August. The S&P 500, by way of comparison, has dipped slightly.

So can oil stocks keep flowing? For the foreseeable future, the answer is probably yes.

"As long as oil prices remain high, oil stocks will continue to outperform the market in general," said Fadel Gheit, an analyst with Oppenheimer.

And there is little reason to expect that the price of oil will tumble anytime soon. The market was panicking Monday about a threatened shutdown of oil production in Norway due to labor problems.

Similar concerns about oil worker strikes in Brazil and Nigeria have caused worries about oil supplies. And continued tension in Iraq is contributing to the oil price spike.

"The status quo has been higher prices of oil than you'd think for the past six months and I can't give you a reason why it goes down," said Daniel Pickering, an analyst with Pickering Energy Partners, an independent research firm focusing on the energy sector. "Any supply glitch could take oil to $60."

Earnings should spout

Unless the price of oil, uh, tanks, oil stocks should remain market darlings. Record high oil prices should translate into sustainable strong gains in sales and profits for all the major oil producers and services companies.

The broader market has stumbled due to concerns about rising oil prices but oil stocks have surged.  
The broader market has stumbled due to concerns about rising oil prices but oil stocks have surged.

"The more that oil trades over $50, the group will be attractive to investors because of solid earnings and cash flow," said George Gaspar, an analyst with Robert W. Baird.

This is a big week for energy earnings reports, with companies ranging from oil services companies Halliburton and Baker Hughes to major integrated oil firms ExxonMobil and ChevronTexaco releasing their third quarter results.

Robert Kessler, an analyst with Simmons & Co, an investment bank and research firm specializing in energy, said that third quarter numbers will probably be relatively in line for most oil-related companies. However, given the huge surge in oil prices lately, he thinks that fourth quarter targets are likely to rise.

"I would not bet against oil in the near-term, since there is plenty of upside for earnings numbers," he said. "There's a better than average chance of earnings estimates coming up for the fourth quarter."

So who are among some of the better plays in the sector? For the near-term, Gheit likes refiners Sunoco and Valero, smaller integrated firms Amerada Hess and Occidental Petroleum, and majors ChevronTexaco and BP.

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Kessler also likes BP, as well as ExxonMobil, because both have a healthy backlog of exploration and production projects. Gaspar's top pick of the major oil explorers is ChevronTexaco. He also likes Offshore Logistics, a company that provides helicopter service for the oil and gas industry.

Pickering said that other oil services firms should thrive as well. His favorites are BJ Services, National Oilwell and its merger partner Varco. He also thinks Halliburton is trading at too deep a discount. The culprits there are asbestos litigation and lots of bad press about the company's government contracts.

Is it a bubble?

Still, there is reason for oil investors to worry. Kessler said that at some point, the price of oil could reach such an exorbitant level ($60 perhaps?) that the benefits of higher prices for oil companies would be outweighed by the negative effects that high oil prices would have on the overall economy, and hence demand for oil.

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The fact that oil has risen so far so fast has also led many to talk about a bubble. Pickering thinks the current supply/demand scenario justifies a barrel price only in the mid-$30's.

Gheit adds that worries about terrorism and excessive fears about possible shortages that have yet to materialize.

"I do believe we are in an oil price bubble," said Gheit. "It will eventually burst. The question is not if but when."

He isn't expecting a collapse in oil prices. But considering that oil stocks have run up so much on enthusiasm about $55 oil, even the slightest pullback in crude could cause a lot of momentum investors that have recently flocked to energy stocks to head for the exits.

So investors looking to take a dive into good old Texas Tea at these levels might want to exercise some caution.

Oppenheimer's Gheit owns shares of BP, ExxonMobil and ChevronTexaco but his firm has no investment banking relationships with these or other companies mentioned in this piece. Other analysts quoted do not own shares of the companies mentioned and their firms have no banking ties to the companies.  Top of page




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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.