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SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE
Best investments 2005: Growth
Growth stocks are selling for a song, but what about the risks?
December 8, 2004: 5:48 PM EST
By Jon Birger, Pablo Galarza, Tara Kalwarski, and Nich Pachetti, MONEY Magazine.
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NEW YORK (MONEY Magazine) - Growth stocks haven't been this cheap in years. Risk: A weak economy might keep them cheap.

Blue-chip stocks with double-digit earnings growth used to be the Ray Romanos of the market: Everybody loved them, and price never seemed to be an obstacle.

At their peak in 2000, the typical growth stock on the S&P 500 traded at 70 times earnings, according to the Leuthold Group. That all changed after the technology bubble burst. Large-cap growth racked up double-digit losses in 2000, 2001 and 2002.

Today these stocks trade at about 20 times expected earnings. Much like the market as a whole, the last time big growth was this cheap was 1994 -- a near-perfect time to have bought health care, tech and other growth plays.

There's obviously risk here: If the economic recovery flags in 2005, so will earnings, and these stocks will remain cheap a while longer. But if you can handle the potential volatility, this is a broad opportunity.

You can capture it, in fact, by buying one of the dozens of well-run growth funds out there. The default choice is Vanguard Growth Index, which holds 400 companies and has a razor-thin 0.23 percent expense ratio. Over the past decade, its 10.5 percent annualized return beat 86 percent of large-growth funds, according to Morningstar.

If you prefer to buy individual stocks, Texas Instruments (Research) and Procter & Gamble (Research) stand out. Texas Instruments boasts a 20 percent projected five-year growth rate, making it one of the five fastest growers on Michael Sivy's list of America's 70 best blue chips. (Subscribers can get the list here.)

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Yet its price-to-earnings ratio of 22 is not far above the average for a growth stock. The company's earnings can have sharp ups and downs, but the chipmaker is well positioned in fast-growing markets including mobile phones and digital televisions. That makes it more attractive than some other big chipmakers that rely more on the maturing personal-computer market.

Consumer products juggernaut P&G trades for 21 times 2005 earnings. That's slightly more than the average growth stock, and the company's projected growth of 11 percent is on the low end.

What you're buying here is a consistent performance record: annual sales growth of 4 to 6 percent and an amazing 16 brands, from Tide to Pampers, that rack up sales of $1 billion or more a year.

Merrill Lynch analyst Chris Ferrara believes that in the coming year, the company will likely benefit from growth in China and Eastern Europe. That means P&G could also profit from our weakening dollar.

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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.