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The Xbox 360 went on sale at midnight Tuesday. |
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NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -
In the first seconds of Tuesday morning, the Xbox 360 officially kicked off the next generation of video game machines. After being a year behind with the original Xbox, Microsoft is now a year ahead of its competitors. The big question is: Will this give it an advantage over Sony and Nintendo?
Publishers and analysts say yes, though no one's expecting the company to replace Sony as the overall market leader. By launching as much as a year before the PlayStation 3 comes to market, they say, Microsoft will have a firm opportunity to establish a large user base.
"Being first could be an advantage for Microsoft," said Brian Farrell, president and chief executive officer for THQ (Research). "We're assuming it's going to be a neck-and-neck horse race."
Few others are willing to say it will be that close, but everyone's looking for a tighter fight this time. At present, there are roughly 90 million PlayStation 2 units in homes worldwide versus 20 million Xboxes. That distant second place finish has cost Microsoft (Research) roughly $4 billion.
Mike Wallace, an analyst with UBS Warburg, said he expects the market breakdown to be closer to 60 percent PlayStation 3 vs. 40 percent Xbox 360 in the next generation. That would be a significant jump – and Wallace said it's the headstart that should give Microsoft the opportunity to make up the ground.
"I think that by getting out early, [Microsoft] should have sold about 10 million machines worldwide by the time the PS3 launches," he said.
While there's certain to be a consumer frenzy for the Xbox 360 this holiday season, it could be little more than a warm-up for Holiday 2006. Farrell said the last quote he heard from Sony (Research) was that the PS3 would launch around the holiday time-frame. Nintendo, meanwhile, has said it will launch at the same time as Sony.
"It seems Microsoft is using this opportunity to get out in front of the PS3, which gives them an advantage this holiday," said Paul Eibeler, CEO and president of Take Two Interactive Software (Research). "It also makes things even more exciting next holiday."
Take Two has seen its profits soar on the strength of the PlayStation 2, but Eibeler's not quite ready to declare Sony the winner of the next generation.
"The advantage is going to go to whoever does the better marketing, who has the better hardware system and the better software for that system," he said.
John Schappert, senior vice president and group studio general manager of Electronic Arts (Research) Canada, agrees.
"When the PS3 comes out, we'll know the full extend of that hardware," he said. "Microsoft is out there first. Will it be a benefit for them? That's up to the consumer."
By launching first, Microsoft may have one significant advantage: Developers will have a better chance to get acquainted with the system, meaning deeper, more sophisticated (and better looking) games by the time the PS3 hit shelves.
Sony, though, has not seemed to be in a rush to get the PS3 to market, preferring instead to extend the life cycle of the PS2. That could allow developers a little more time to polish their next-gen launch titles.
"The 360 came pretty quickly, while the PS3 has been more of an evolving process," said Eibeler. "We did a pretty good job, particularly in our sports studios, in preparing for the 360. We're working very hard in terms of people and tools preparing for the PS3."
At THQ, the story seems a bit different.
"The advantage [Microsoft] has, from a developer standpoint, is that in the last round, when all of us were creating our technology, the target was the PS2, then we'd port that over to Xbox," said Farrell. "In this round, with Xbox 360 being first, that's our technology platform. We see the 360 as a blank slate."
Is the Xbox 360 worth the price? Read our review
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