Big potential seen in some semi stocks
Unlike Intel, a handful of smaller semiconductors have seen their stock skyrocket in the last year.
By Amanda Cantrell, CNNMoney.com staff writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - If you want to invest in semiconductors while steering clear of the industry's bigwigs such as Intel (down $0.51 to $20.11, Research) and Texas Instruments (up $0.21 to $30.86, Research) there are plenty of other options, analysts and investors say.

A handful of these stocks fall squarely in the mid-cap range and offer potentially strong growth, albeit with a heaping helping of volatility. Those with the most potential? Smaller players who make chips that go in product areas with high growth potential.

"You want to be in chips that are making products for big screen TVs and wireless phone areas," said Bob Bacarella, portfolio manager of the Monetta Fund (Research).

Nvidia (NVDA) (Market cap - $7.83 billion) Nvidia (down $0.05 to $46.41, Research), which makes graphics processors for PCs and gaming systems, suffered from various setbacks in recent years including production problems and management issues, but it has been enjoying the benefits of a turnaround, including higher-than-ever margins.

"It's got a very nice chart," said Bacarella, whose fund owns shares of the stock. Bacarella noted that the company's margins are at an all-time high, and it is forecasting earnings growth of 50 percent next quarter.

"It's an impressive turnaround; they've re-engineered the company to be more profitable," added David Wu, an analyst with Global Crown Capital.

Wu added that Nvidia is benefiting from a trend of rising 3D graphics requirements in both the PC environment and cell phones.

"They fixed product problems, but also the management issues, getting more efficient," said Wu, adding that the company's gross margins are at 40 percent, which he thinks the company will surpass. Wu added that some analysts are eager to say that Nvidia's stock has hit a top, but he thinks it's about a year too early to say that.

For starters, he thinks the company is about to introduce a new generation of its 7 series processors, which he says will boast better margins than the previous generation. Also, Wu points out that Nvidia will benefit from the launch of Sony's PlayStation 3, since it makes components for that system.

"They'll make $75 million of pre-tax profits just from licensing fees for Sony, plus a percentage of profits on every machine made – that's $80-odd million in pre-tax profits from that alone."

Micron (Market cap - $10.04 billion) Like Nvidia, Micron (up $0.17 to $16.25, Research), which makes memory chips for computers, cell phones, digital cameras and gaming systems, is another turnaround story that analysts and investors like.

"They've got a wonderful accumulation pattern and very solid earnings," said Bacarella. "The stock has done wonderfully."

Bacarella called Micron an "early turnaround" but said that a mini-pullback would be a good time to acquire the shares.

Eric Ross, an analyst with ThinkEquity Partners, said Micron is still viewed as an old-line company that just makes DRAM, a type of memory, but he says there's more to it than that.

"The areas driving the business are sensors that are going into cell phone handsets, and the (flash memory) piece of the business, which is going to be a big driver over the long term but hasn't been a huge driver yet."

But Cody Acree, an analyst with Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, warned that Micron, which he does not cover, is not for investors with delicate constitutions.

"At times it might be a very good story, but even as volatile as semis can be, memory suppliers can be two to three times as volatile as that," he said.

Broadcom (Market cap: $23.10 billion) Broadcom (up $0.94 to $44.93, Research), which makes chips and chip sets for cell phones, cable set top boxes, DSL modems and Ethernet controllers and switching products, is also positioned in the fastest-growing markets for chip makers.

"They have just done phenomenally in terms of not only the earnings growth – up 52 percent in sales and 24 percent in margins – they are by far the leader in providing products to previously mentioned sectors," said Bacarella, whose fund owns shares of Broadcom.

Acree said while he thinks Broadcom boasts one of the best semiconductor business models in the business, he maintains a hold rating on the stock because he thinks it's fairly valued.

"They've had an extremely good run of very good performance and a couple of quarters of significant upside performance, which has been a major catalyst for the stock," he said. "It's not the first place I'd look for undervalued names."

Marvell (Market cap: $17.89 billion) Marvell Technology Group's (up $1.01 to $63.31, Research) stock has enjoyed a remarkable run, nearly doubling in the last year. Marvell makes semiconductors for products that serve business enterprises, consumer electronics and emerging markets. The company has a big foothold in the markets for storage, servers and desktops, but is also strong in the market for cell phones.

The company will report its fiscal third-quarter earnings tomorrow, with analysts expecting the company to report $486 million in revenues, a 43 percent increase over last year, and $0.41 cents a share of earnings, a nearly 70 percent increase over last year, according to a survey of analysts by Thomson/FirstCall.

Acree of Stifel Nicolaus thinks the company still has room to grow.

"We think they are just now starting to build in a few new revenue opportunities, and that should continue to drive stock even from these levels," he said.

The company announced yesterday a deal to buy Avago's printer chip line for $240 million in cash and $35 million in additional incentives.

"From a strategic standpoint, we believe entering the high-volume ink jet and laser printer markets makes a lot of sense and is in-line with Marvel's strategy of participating in high-volume commodity markets," wrote American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu in a recent research note. "We also believe this deal helps broaden Marvell's portfolio of offerings and diversifies its revenue stream."

Global Crown's Wu does not own shares of Nvidia, and his firm does not do banking business with the company. Eric Ross of ThinkEquity does not own shares of Micron, and his firm does not do banking business with the company. Acree does not own shares of Broadcom, Marvell or Micron, and his firm doesn't do banking business with those firms. Shaw Wu of American Technology Research does not own shares of Marvell, and his firm does not do banking business with those firms.

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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.