Don't cry for Goldman Sachs
CEO may be headed out the door, but analysts see more upside for company's stock.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Goldman Sachs may be bidding adieu to Chairman and Chief Executive Henry Paulson, but don't expect Paulson's exit to mark any slowdown in the company's stellar growth, making Goldman Sachs a hot bet for investors. Paulson, who accepted the nomination to replace outgoing Treasury Secretary John Snow on Tuesday, will be leaving a company at the height of its success. Among its peers, including Merrill Lynch (Research) and Morgan Stanley (Research), Goldman Sachs (down $3.11 to $149.83, Research) has been the golden child in the industry, roping in solid earnings growth in the first quarter of 42 percent over its previous record high as fixed income and commodities trading soared. But it's been a heady ride for Goldman Sachs investors, who saw the stock jump to historical highs of almost $170 a share by mid-April before concerns about overvaluation pushed shares down almost 11 percent from their all-time high. While the exit of a prominent corporate leader could have been seen as a catalyst for further decline for the company, Wall Street is betting that Goldman investors will take the change in leadership in stride and focus more on the company's strong and profitable trading business as well as its more reasonable current valuations. And it's not as if Paulson's departure came as a surprise. A smooth transition
Within the securities industry, Goldman Sachs has long been considered a breeding ground for corporate executives who choose to pursue political ambitions or start their own corporate ventures, said Denise Valentine, a senior analyst at Celent LLC, an independent research advisory firm. Among the prominent former executives in the limelight are New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine and former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin. "It's part of the whole corporate structure and Goldman Sachs is known for attracting brilliant intellects that go off to do other things," Valentine said. That gives the company an edge when it comes to dealing with succession, analysts said, and should help provide a seamless transition for Goldman Sachs as the company's president and chief operating officer Lloyd Blankfein, long considered the heir to Paulson's throne, takes the reins. Before taking over as president in 2004, Blankfein headed up the company's fixed-income, currency and commodities trading, or FICC, division. Analysts expect Blankfein's background in the hot FICC unit to be an attractive asset for the next Goldman Sachs leader as the company continues its metamorphosis into more of a trading company than a traditional investment bank. FICC accounted for more than one-third of Goldman Sachs' first-quarter revenue of $10.34 billion. That line of business should continue to represent 33 to 35 percent of the company's total revenue, said Lauren Smith, managing director of equity research at Keefe Bruyette & Woods (See correction). More upside for Goldman investors
And given the strength of the trading business, that should propel more upside to Goldman's stock price. "The company has strong underlying fundamentals," Smith added. "Should the markets hold in and the economy stay strong but not overheat," the company should continue to see strength in its M&A and underwriting businesses, along with its trading operations. "This is a (buying) opportunity here," she said. And analysts said investors can rest assured that the company won't undergo any major strategy changes as Blankfein takes the helm. David Trone, securities industry analyst at Fox-Pitt Kelton, said while Blankfein's background may be in trading, Goldman Sachs, as a course of business, focuses on those businesses that are in the spotlight. While trading may be the hot market currently, prompting more capital allocation from the company, he said Goldman Sachs will attempt to gain a leadership position in any line of business that's showing strength. That should allay fears that Goldman Sachs will neglect its traditional investment banking business, Trone added. While the stock was lower Monday, analysts blamed the decline on overall market weakness rather than the news of Paulson's departure. And short interest in the stock fell to its lowest point in a year at 8.72 million shares, according to the Nasdaq Stock Market. Keefe Bruyette & Woods' Smith has a $175 price target on the company's stock. A representative from Goldman Sachs couldn't be reached for comment. None of the analysts quoted in the story own shares of the company but Keefe Bruyette & Woods has an investment banking relationship with Goldman Sachs. Correction: An earlier version of this story implied the FICC business would see growth of 33 percent to 35 percent. That figure actually represents the percentage that business makes up of total revenue. CNNMoney.com regrets the error. ___________________ Click here for more on Paulson's nomination. |
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