Six reasons why ImClone is a risky investment
Biotech to report earnings Wednesday, and all eyes are on Erbitux sales.
By Aaron Smith, CNNMoney.com staff writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- ImClone Systems Inc., the troubled biotech that will report third-quarter earnings on Wednesday, has won rosy forecasts from some analysts. But the truth is that this company puts a capital "R" in risk.

Here are some reasons why investing ImClone is risky:

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Risky reason No. 1: Who will lead? ImClone's board of directors is looking for a new chief executive officer, with the aggressive stockholder activist Carl Icahn appointed Oct. 20 as the top head-hunter. The company has an interim CEO, but Icahn wants to fire him.

Risky reason No. 2: Icahn, who holds a 14-percent stake in the company, has led a purging of the board, demanding the ouster of six members, including interim CEO Joseph Fischer. Two answered the call Oct. 10 and quit - including chairman David Kies and director William W. Crouse - but the others remain, including Fischer.

Risky reason No. 3: ImClone is for sale, but so far nobody's buying. The company said Oct. 4 that Icahn rejected a $36-a-share bid from an undisclosed bidder. (Sanofi-Aventis (down $0.10 to $44.20, Charts) later denied a news report identifying the itself as the bidder.) After that, ImClone said it took itself off the auction block. But analysts say that everything has a price and everything, even ImClone, is always for sale.

Risky reason No. 4: The board of directors, on Oct. 13, asked shareholders to reject Icahn's demands, highlighting dissension within the ranks.

Risky reason No. 5: ImClone's (down $0.62 to $29.19, Charts) stock price is down 13 percent year-to-date, compared to a 10 percent gain for the S&P 500 during that period. ImClone stock also lags the biotech industry as a whole, which is flat year-to-date.

Risky reason No. 6: ImClone founder and former CEO Sam Waksal is serving a seven-year, three-month prison sentence for an insider trading scandal in 2000 that involved his friend Martha Stewart. Waksal pleaded guilty to urging family and friends to jettison ImClone shares, before the disappointing study results for cancer drug Erbitux were made public. (Erbitux has since been approved by the Food and Drug Administration, and is on the market in the U.S. as a treatment for colorectal and head and neck cancer.)

Despite all that...

Despite all these uncertainties, a consensus of analysts interviewed by Thomson First Call projects a third-quarter sales surge of 53 percent for the New York-based ImClone to $163 million, and an increase of 29 percent in earnings per share to 45 cents.

Michael King, analyst for Rodman & Renshaw, said he's bullish on the future prospects for ImClone's Erbitux "because the product stands apart from the soap opera" of battling board members.

"What I think is risky is not Erbitux, it's the execution in sales, because management is distracted in the fight with Carl Icahn," said King, in an interview with CNNMoney.com. "They're taking the eye off the ball."

King, in a note published Tuesday, reiterated his "buy" rating and his 12-month price target $46, a considerable increase from ImClone's current share price of about $29. The analyst wrote that the "established market status" of Erbitux will help it compete with Amgen's (up $1.48 to $74.85, Charts) recently-approved colorectal treatment Vectibix, also known as panitumumab.

But Jim Reddoch, analyst for Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, who rates ImClone an "underperform," recently lowered his U.S. sales for Erbitux to $176 million for the third quarter from his previous estimate of $190 million. Erbitux sales in the U.S. were $173 million in the third quarter, so Reddoch projects a flattening in growth.

Reddoch also believes the stock price will fall to $21 a share over the next 12 months, from its current level of about $29.

Reddoch, in his note published Oct. 10, wrote he lowered his Erbitux projection because he believes that recent sales growth in the market to treat head and neck cancer is slowing. He said the slowing market in head and neck cancer treatment, combined with impending competition in the colorectal drug industry from Amgen's Vectibix, will squeeze Erbitux sales in the fourth quarter.

The biotech industry is led by Amgen, the world's biggest biotech, and Genentech (up $0.00 to $83.30, Charts), the No. 2. Amgen and Genentech both beat earnings forecasts for the third quarter.

Bristol-Myers Squibb (up $0.10 to $24.67, Charts), the fifth-largest U.S. pharmaceutical drugmaker, is scheduled to report earnings Thursday. Bristol and ImClone are partners in the U.S. marketing of cancer drug Erbitux.

The analysts quoted in this story do not own ImClone stock, but Rodman & Renshaw and Friedman, Billings, Ramsey make a market in the biotech. Top of page

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Most stock quote data provided by BATS. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. All times are ET. Disclaimer. Morningstar: © 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates.