Pozen stock surges ahead of FDA decision

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Pozen's stock price surged 6 percent on Wednesday - the day the FDA is expected to make a decision on the drugmaker's experimental combination painkiller Trexima, which is being considered for migraine relief.

The stock for Pozen's (up $0.95 to $17.60, Charts) partner GlaxoSmithKline (up $0.56 to $51.15, Charts) also edged up 1 percent ahead of the decision from the Food and Drug Administration.

Ken Trbovich, analyst for RBC Capital Markets, said there is a "high probability" of approval for Trexima, because there was only one serious cardiovascular side effect in more than 3,000 patients. Trbovich said that approval could drive Pozen's stock up 15 to 20 percent. But the stakes are high, said Trbovich, who estimates that a 40 to 50 percent plunge in stock if the drug gets rejected.

Trexima is combo of an NSAID, a popular form of generic over-the-counter painkiller, and GlaxoSmithKline's Imitrex, a migraine-relief painkiller which is estimated to total $800 million in 2007 sales, according to Trbovich.

Trbovich projects that Trexima sales would peak at $1 billion in 2013. Sales would be cannibalized from Imitrex, but that drug is expected to lose patent protection in 2009, which results in plunging sales.

Spokespersons for Pozen and Glaxo confirmed that the FDA is expected to make its Trexima decision today.

Trbovich does not own Pozen stock, but RBC does make a market in the company.