A STRATEGIC GUIDE TO THE RIM
(FORTUNE Magazine) – They vary strikingly in size, shape, and political stripe. Yet the Pacific Rim countries developing fastest share an aptitude for melding new Western technologies with old Oriental virtues -- discipline, patience, and diligence. What's more, their governments are actively seeking American partners to team up with indigenous entrepreneurs. Chauvinism and corruption can still kill a deal, but the old antagonisms bred of colonialism and war are fading. On the surface, the culture gap between East and West seems to be disappearing. Soaring skyscrapers and roaring subways, the blare of rock music and the blur of blue jeans along any street, heighten an impression that ''these folks are just like us.'' They're not. Even in high-living Hong Kong, where chauffeured Rolls-Royces crowd each other on the narrow roads, it's not unusual to see a bicyclist pedaling past with a side of pork slung over the back wheel. Travel through the region is usually punctual, and accommodations comfortable. But holding an airline ticket doesn't guarantee a seat unless you've reconfirmed. And don't venture anywhere without a room reservation. In Taipei or Bangkok a cellular phone may come in handy. However, in Tokyo it's almost impossible to be out of reach of a pay phone. But you'd better know the color coding: Red, pink, and yellow phones take coins only, while green ones accept prepaid cards sold for 500 or 1,000 yen apiece. On the following pages are more colors in the rainbow of opportunity that arcs across the Asian side of the Pacific. Japan boasts that it has already replaced the U.S. as the world's richest country, at least in the value of its assets. An acre of prime Tokyo land, for example, sells for $1 billion. What's incontrovertible is that space remains Japan's scarcest commodity; picture half the population of the U.S. crammed into California. But the ubiquitous crowds surging through neon-splashed, gimcrack downtowns or packing rah-shah-wah (rush hour) trains or staging a Sunday mass assault on snow-fringed Mount Fuji no longer translate into abundant or cheap labor. Unemployment is a mere 2.3%, and there are 132 jobs for every 100 applicants. The only human resource shortage seems to be in straight-arrow politicians: Bribery and a sex scandal brought down two Prime Ministers this year. Laments an official, ''We have a first-rate economy, a second-rate standard of living, and third-rate politicians.'' South Korea, economically bled by the occupying Japanese from 1910 to 1945, set adrift by a Soviet-U.S. agreement in 1945, and invaded by the North Koreans in 1950, racked up a $14 billion trade surplus last year -- especially remarkable considering that the nation has almost no natural resources. But then South Koreans approach economic growth with the same determination and precision they apply to tae kwon do, their ancient martial art, in which they can split a beam in the flash of a foot. As a result, South Korea produces for export the least expensive ton of steel, personal computer, and video recorder in the world. Prospects for a Pacific Century may ultimately depend on the People's Republic of China because of its vast natural and human resources. But last spring's student protests, culminating in the Tiananmen Square massacre, drove ! away foreign investment. The political crackdown is likely to exacerbate the country's three worst economic problems -- a rising trade deficit, dwindling foreign exchange, and industrial output that is declining sharply. The political gulf between mainland China and small, mountainous, tobacco- leaf-shaped Taiwan remains large. But in practical ways, the two old enemies are growing closer. Trade between the two reached $2.5 billion in 1988. Such trade still moves mainly through Hong Kong, but the government of Taiwan no longer tries to prevent it. Taiwan's roller-coaster stock exchange boasts one of the world's biggest trading volumes (101 billion shares in 1988), on a par with New York and Tokyo. By 11 A.M. it's SRO at Taipei's Wall Street Restaurant, where diners huddle around glass-topped tables, peering down at the latest stock quotations flashing by on green-screened TV monitors underneath lunch. In Hong Kong's entrepreneurial paradise (low taxes, no tariffs, and few government controls), it is said that ''Mao was overtaken by Mammon.'' Despite the uncertainty over exactly how China will treat the 410-square-mile territory when it takes over in 1997, shimmering steel-and-glass towers keep sprouting among the lush green peaks. The Chinese have promised to make Hong Kong a Special Administrative Region so that at least some of the wheeling and dealing -- which generates much of China's hard currency -- can continue. But the harsh way in which China's aging leaders responded to student demands for democracy have created big doubts in Hong Kong. The flight of capital -- and people -- has begun. From the rice terraces etched into the steep mountainsides of northern Luzon to the pineapple plantations carved out of the dense jungles of southern Mindanao, Americans prospecting for new places to invest in Asia will find no more welcoming place than the Philippines. Most of the people speak English. More important, the economy, long ravaged by corruption under former dictator Ferdinand Marcos, is finally picking up, though his successor, Corazon Aquino, has not been able to cure the disease completely. Foreign investment tripled last year to nearly $1 billion, while exports rose 27% to $7 billion. This year 19 countries and seven international organizations led by the World Bank are pumping $3.5 billion in grants and loans into the Philippines Assistance Plan. A settlement was also reached with international banks to restructure the country's $28 billion debt. ( To rouse a comatose economy, the Communist leaders of Vietnam are trying a little market capitalism. Called doi moi, this local version of Soviet perestroika is supposed to encourage Vietnamese entrepreneurs to start small businesses. Farmers can keep half their crops. So far doi moi has made little headway. Unemployment remains high, though inflation is moderating. The Vietnamese are also trying to lure Western and Japanese investment by setting a realistic exchange rate and adopting flexible regulations on foreign investment. Saigon veterans will discover another bright spot: The famous Continental Hotel, once the haunt of Graham Greene, whose 1955 novel, The Quiet American, foresaw America's misfortune in Vietnam, has just reopened, with English-speaking university grads as waiters. Thailand's Prime Minister Chatichai Choonhavan loves motorcycling and disco dancing -- and foreign investors. Such economic aggressiveness belies Pentagon experts who predicted that this land of golden temple spires would be the first domino to fall after U.S. troops pulled out of Vietnam. Instead, new investment has been growing faster than anywhere else in Southeast Asia. But newcomers may be put off by Bangkok's tangled traffic, temperamental phones, and tourist hordes flocking everywhere from the captivating Emerald Buddha to the massage parlors of Patpong. By contrast, Malaysia's modern roads, instant telecommunications, and well- educated workers are a pleasant surprise. All the more so because a volatile ethnic mix (47% Malay, 33% Chinese, and 9% Indian) once seemed to threaten development. Though Malaysia is the third-largest producer of semiconductors after the U.S. and Japan, commodities remain important. Petroleum, palm oil, rubber, tin, timber, and cocoa account for 45% of exports. Singapore is so small that incoming 747s must be wheels down before they sweep across the frontier. Yet the 240-square-mile city-state is one of the world's biggest oil refiners and is wall to wall with multinational manufacturers. The political stability provided by Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew's strict 30-year reign has turned Singapore into a high-tech mecca with one of the highest living standards in Asia. The average annual wage has shot up to approximately $4,800, some five times that of an unskilled Indonesian next door. Indonesia is rich in potential. It is Southeast Asia's largest country, with more than 13,500 islands flung over 3,000 miles of ocean. The world's most populous Islamic nation, it has proven oil reserves of nine billion barrels and deposits of almost every mineral used by industry. The country's potential, however, is still far from being realized. Depressed oil revenues, off 50% since 1985, badly damaged the economy. Indonesia is Asia's biggest borrower, with debts of $53 billion. Interest alone takes a third of the national budget. But the money gets paid -- Indonesia has an excellent record for honoring its obligations. Australians, who sometimes affectionately refer to their land as the Lucky Country, are concerned that it's going Asian. A middle-income housing development in Sydney called Killarney Heights has been dubbed Hiroshima Heights by real estate developers who complain that the Japanese and Hong Kong Chinese are the only home buyers with any money. The Taipan, a four-deck floating Chinese restaurant juxtaposed against the spectacular ''flying roof'' of Sydney's harborside opera house, is a local landmark. Growing almost as familiar are the legions of Vietnamese immigrants -- some 104,000 in all -- now holding down jobs in a country where unemployment is almost 7%. But then native Australian labor, it has been said, can be ''so laid back as to be positively horizontal.'' CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: MAPS AND GRAPHICS DESIGNED AND ILLUSTRATED BY JOHN GRIMWADE, DAVID TAUB, AND GREGORY WAKABAYASHI SOURCES: INTERNATIONAL LABOR ORGANI ZATION; UNITED NATIONS EDUCATIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & CULTURAL ORGANIZATION; BUSINESS INTERNATIONAL CORP. CAPTION: JAPAN Japan's per capita gross domestic product, or GDP, is by far the highest of all countries in the region. Risk factor, calculated by Business International, a U.S. consulting firm, represents an estimate of a country's economic and political stability. Ratings run from A, the lowest risk -- as in Japan's case -- to E, for the highest risk. CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: MAPS AND GRAPHICS DESIGNED AND ILLUSTRATED BY JOHN GRIMWADE, DAVID TAUB, AND GREGORY WAKABAYASHI SOURCES: INTERNATIONAL LABOR ORGANI ZATION; UNITED NATIONS EDUCATIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & CULTURAL ORGANIZATION; BUSINESS INTERNATIONAL CORP. CAPTION: SOUTH KOREA GDP growth in 1988 was second highest (after China's estimated 17%), but under its newfound democracy, South Korea also ranked second in workdays lost to strikes. An abundance of university students gives it one of the region's < best-educated work forces. Its relatively high risk factor is due to volatile politics. CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: MAPS AND GRAPHICS DESIGNED AND ILLUSTRATED BY JOHN GRIMWADE, DAVID TAUB, AND GREGORY WAKABAYASHI SOURCES: INTERNATIONAL LABOR ORGANI ZATION; UNITED NATIONS EDUCATIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & CULTURAL ORGANIZATION; BUSINESS INTERNATIONAL CORP. CAPTION: CHINA Even though China's population tops one billion, the policy of one child per family is no longer adhered to, particularly in rural regions, where children can be of help on privately owned plots. China's risk factor worsened from B to C after the Tiananmen Square violence and the government reprisals. CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: MAPS AND GRAPHICS DESIGNED AND ILLUSTRATED BY JOHN GRIMWADE, DAVID TAUB, AND GREGORY WAKABAYASHI SOURCES: INTERNATIONAL LABOR ORGANI ZATION; UNITED NATIONS EDUCATIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & CULTURAL ORGANIZATION; BUSINESS INTERNATIONAL CORP. CAPTION: TAIWAN The island has seen a big shift of population from country to city, farm to factory, since the late 1960s. Its high literacy rate -- there's a big emphasis on learning English -- and lofty per capita income have been accompanied by a drop in the birthrate. Inflation over the past five years has been the lowest on the Rim. CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: MAPS AND GRAPHICS DESIGNED AND ILLUSTRATED BY JOHN GRIMWADE, DAVID TAUB, AND GREGORY WAKABAYASHI SOURCES: INTERNATIONAL LABOR ORGANI ZATION; UNITED NATIONS EDUCATIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & CULTURAL ORGANIZATION; BUSINESS INTERNATIONAL CORP. CAPTION: HONG KONG High per capita GDP is not surprising since many workers hold down two jobs in this laissez-faire British colony. The high risk factor is due to reliance on exports and a cloudy political future. Future growth may depend on expanding to outlying islands, such as Lantau. CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: MAPS AND GRAPHICS DESIGNED AND ILLUSTRATED BY JOHN GRIMWADE, DAVID TAUB, AND GREGORY WAKABAYASHI SOURCES: INTERNATIONAL LABOR ORGANI ZATION; UNITED NATIONS EDUCATIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & CULTURAL ORGANIZATION; BUSINESS INTERNATIONAL CORP. CAPTION: THE PHILIPPINES Corruption -- still -- and an ever-threatening Communist insurgency give the Philippines the worst risk factor in the region. Workdays lost to strikes is also highest. But the Aquino government has brought down inflation and stabilized the value of the peso. English is the language of in struction in the country's schools. CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: MAPS AND GRAPHICS DESIGNED AND ILLUSTRATED BY JOHN GRIMWADE, DAVID TAUB, AND GREGORY WAKABAYASHI SOURCES: INTERNATIONAL LABOR ORGANI ZATION; UNITED NATIONS EDUCATIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & CULTURAL ORGANIZATION; BUSINESS INTERNATIONAL CORP. CAPTION: VIETNAM It's too early to estimate the risk factor since Vietnam is just now opening to foreign investors. Per capita GDP is the lowest on the Rim, and inflation the highest. One point of light: The Communist government has worked hard to wipe out illiteracy, widespread under prior regimes. CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: MAPS AND GRAPHICS DESIGNED AND ILLUSTRATED BY JOHN GRIMWADE, DAVID TAUB, AND GREGORY WAKABAYASHI SOURCES: INTERNATIONAL LABOR ORGANI ZATION; UNITED NATIONS EDUCATIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & CULTURAL ORGANIZATION; BUSINESS INTERNATIONAL CORP. CAPTION: THAILAND Peripatetic King Bhumibol Adulyadej is keen on development and frequently visits new plants set up by foreign companies. A surge of tourists and investors from abroad raised 1988 GDP sharply. There is growing eagerness in Bangkok to learn English -- it helps with business opportunities. CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: MAPS AND GRAPHICS DESIGNED AND ILLUSTRATED BY JOHN GRIMWADE, DAVID TAUB, AND GREGORY WAKABAYASHI SOURCES: INTERNATIONAL LABOR ORGANI ZATION; UNITED NATIONS EDUCATIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & CULTURAL ORGANIZATION; BUSINESS INTERNATIONAL CORP. CAPTION: MALAYSIA Political infighting, economic policy, and slightly subpar foreign reserves keep the risk factor at a B level, despite low inflation and a fast-developing high-tech sector of the economy. The work force in this former British colony is fairly fluent in English. The population remains predominantly rural. CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: MAPS AND GRAPHICS DESIGNED AND ILLUSTRATED BY JOHN GRIMWADE, DAVID TAUB, AND GREGORY WAKABAYASHI SOURCES: INTERNATIONAL LABOR ORGANI ZATION; UNITED NATIONS EDUCATIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & CULTURAL ORGANIZATION; BUSINESS INTERNATIONAL CORP. CAPTION: SINGAPORE This minute city-state has the Rim's third-highest per capita GDP (after Japan and Australia) but gets a B risk rating largely because of uncertainty as to how smooth the political succession will be. Lee Kuan Yew has said that he * will step down as Prime Minister late next year. CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: MAPS AND GRAPHICS DESIGNED AND ILLUSTRATED BY JOHN GRIMWADE, DAVID TAUB, AND GREGORY WAKABAYASHI SOURCES: INTERNATIONAL LABOR ORGANI ZATION; UNITED NATIONS EDUCATIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & CULTURAL ORGANIZATION; BUSINESS INTERNATIONAL CORP. CAPTION: INDONESIA Contributing to its high risk factor is speculation that this will be President Suharto's last term, completing 25 years in office. The large national debt is also a worry. Low literacy is attributable to a large rural population and the multiplicity of languages spoken in the country. CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: MAPS AND GRAPHICS DESIGNED AND ILLUSTRATED BY JOHN GRIMWADE, DAVID TAUB, AND GREGORY WAKABAYASHI SOURCES: INTERNATIONAL LABOR ORGANI ZATION; UNITED NATIONS EDUCATIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, & CULTURAL ORGANIZATION; BUSINESS INTERNATIONAL CORP. CAPTION: AUSTRALIA A weak Australian dollar, low GDP growth, and the high number of workdays lost to strikes indicate a less than vibrant economy. Yet the country still offers some exciting opportunities for development and tourism. The Outback remains one of the world's last frontiers. |
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