(FORTUNE Magazine) – The economic bears are on the prowl again. But if you listen to the business people responding to FORTUNE's latest mood survey, most say their own businesses are doing well right now, and for the immediate future they are bent on expansion. It's the longer-range future that worries them -- specifically, what they expect Clintonomics to do to them. Bearish signals do abound, notably the sharp first-quarter GDP slowdown, the plunge in the leading economic indicators, and a purchasing manager's survey that shows manufacturing weakening. This is the economic recovery that just won't quit reminding everybody of recession. FORTUNE doesn't think a new slump is at hand. First, the fundamentals are sound. Debt refinancings prompted by low interest rates are putting cash into the hands of both businesses and consumers. Companies impelled to increase productivity keep pouring huge sums into computers and other high-tech equipment -- one reason they are holding their own in international markets despite the enfeebled Japanese and European economies. Horrendous weather did dampen the first quarter -- when the sun peeked out in April, auto sales perked up to their strongest monthly rate in 2 1/2 years. Regional reports from the Federal Reserve say consumer spending, residential real estate, and manufacturing all turned up in April. And the Labor Department recorded a modest rise in jobs after a dip in March. Today's business mood is itself encouraging. When the mood sours, as it did in 1990, it can help tip the economy into recession. For the present, though, FORTUNE's latest survey shows real spunk. Despite a litany of worries about the economy's future, a high and increasing proportion of the respondents say their own business right now is good or very good -- 71% vs. 65% in the winter. The poll has correctly pointed upward since early 1992, when the economy started to show convincing growth. What's more, respondents say they have become more aggressive in capital budgeting, advertising, and other policies. If trouble does come, it's likely to be further down the road. The survey drew 213 responses, including many retailers and wholesalers as well as banks and manufacturers. The majority are small to midsize businesses (for the views of FORTUNE 500 CEOs on Bill Clinton and his plans, see Politics & Policy). Most of the results were gathered in the second half of April. Respondents draw courage from low interest rates and inflation and a recovering economy. Some also detect improved consumer confidence; others give credit to the increased efficiency of American business. But the gap between how they judge their own prospects and their view of the overall economy has widened. Only 50% are confident about sustained economic growth over the next couple of years, down from 63% in the winter poll and not much better than the 45% reading before last November's election. How come? In a nutshell, anxiety over Clinton Administration policies. The warning flags raised by the survey signal trouble once pent-up demand has been spent and the policies have taken hold. The small-business people who responded are even more impassioned than the FORTUNE 500 CEOs, expressing genuine fear about the impact on their enterprises. Higher taxes far and away topped the worry list. Most of Clinton's proposed increase will hit people with taxable incomes over $140,000, but it's not just sellers of luxury items who are unhappy. ''Consumers will have less to spend,'' says Harvey Gershenson, president of Acme Battery Co. in St. Louis. Adds Brian DeFord, sales manager of Tom O'Brien Chrysler-Jeep-Eagle in Indianapolis: ''New taxes will cap spending by the wealthy, and when they tighten up, it trickles down.'' Another auto dealer worries that the prospective energy tax will cause people to drive less, hurting sales. On the other hand, a thrift-store operator looks forward to more business as new taxes raise the cost of living. For sure, some people expect to gain. ''There is confidence out there in Clinton's abilities that is helping our sales,'' says Robert Glik, vice president of Glik Stores in Granite City, Illinois. ''The tax increase won't stop people from shopping. The health care proposal will hurt small business but will help the average Joe.'' And small businesses everywhere welcome the proposals to increase bank lending. But what approval there is of Clinton seems tentative. A Midwestern appliance-store owner is thankful his blue-collar customers are spending heavily because of greater job security, but he worries that higher taxes could stall the economy out. Says the owner of a nursery and landscaping supply company: ''I don't mind paying more taxes as long as we're doing something with them. But we're going to pay taxes and not get any return.'' Small business deeply fears higher costs of employing people -- especially from health care reform and family leave. ''Everyone who's self-employed is terrified of going out of business because of government regulations regarding employees,'' says the president of a furniture retailer and wholesaler in North Carolina. These are not just Republicans talking. John Fitzpatrick, an ardent Clinton supporter whose wholesale business employs six people in St. Louis, says he's ''apprehensive about the effort to force small business to provide health care.'' Recent surveys by the National Federation of Independent Business and National Association of Manufacturers underscore the message from ground level. NFIB members cited taxes and regulation as their biggest problems. The NAM said uncertainties over taxes, regulation, and legal costs are constraining employment by small manufacturers. For all the experts the Clinton team has consulted, it appears that the hands-on people running the presumed engines of growth have been left out.

BOX: OVERVIEW

-- April marks a rebound from the slow first quarter. -- Most businesses answering FORTUNE are growing . . . -- . . . and are aggressive in near-term spending plans.

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: SOURCE: FORTUNE SURVEY CAPTION: MANAGERS WORRY ABOUT THE ECONOMY. . . BUT THEIR OWN SALES ARE RISING. . . AND MORE ARE BETTING ON GROWTH

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: NO CREDIT CAPTION: What are your chief worries for business in the next year or so? What are the chief favorable aspects of the business situation?